scholarly journals Maritime Risk Modelling and Decision Making

2006 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Modelling

Introduction

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Yuri G. Raydugin
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Dynamic Modelling ◽  
System Dynamic ◽  
Project Delivery ◽  
Risk Modelling ◽  
Technical Aspects ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Project Risks ◽  
Project Structure

A roadmap of the book is developed to expedite a fundamental upgrade to the traditional Monte Carlo methodology. Traditionally risks are seen as standalone noninteracting events. As noninteracting risks are attributes of simple project systems, the traditional Monte Carlo methodology can be adequate in simple projects only. As the vast majority of the project is complex, a more sophisticated methodology that takes interacting risks into account is required. Two types of interactions—intra-risk (amplification of standalone risks due to ‘chronic’ project system issues) and inter-risk (knock-on and compounding interactions among risks)—are taken into account. These stem from various imbalances inside and between two fundamental project subsystems—project structure and project delivery subsystems. The methodology developed in this book is labelled ‘non-linear Monte Carlo methodology’. In parallel, system dynamic modelling of project risks exposure is undertaken. Besides the technical aspects, political aspects of risk modelling and project decision-making are reviewed including various realizations of bias. The notorious Hiding Hand concept is challenged by a newly introduced Revealing Hand approach based on the non-linear Monte Carlo methodology. This book has four target auditoria—all project practitioners who are not involved in Monte Carlo modelling, Monte Carlo modellers, students and instructors of various project management programmes, and specialists involved in project claims and dispute resolutions. The content of this book is organized in a way that serves specific needs of the target auditoria members.

Some Novel Risk Modelling and Decision Making Approaches

2000 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 12-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Wang ◽  
H. S. Sii ◽  
A. Pillay
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Modelling

Design for Safety of Large Marine Engineering Products

2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Wang ◽  
H. S. Sii ◽  
A. Pillay ◽  
A. Saajedi ◽  
J. B. Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Public Concern ◽  
Risk Modelling ◽  
The Public ◽  
Design For Safety ◽  
Assessment Techniques ◽  
Novel Approaches ◽  
Marine Engineering

As maritime engineering products become more and more complex and the public concern regarding their safety increases, design for safety has attracted more and more attention in the marine and offshore industries. This paper reviews the current practices in risk assessment employed in the marine and offshore industries. The issues in risk assessment of large maritime engineering products are highlighted. A design for safety methodology is described together with the typical supporting risk assessment techniques. Several novel safety modelling and decision making techniques are outlined. Examples are used to demonstrate two novel risk modelling and decision making tools described with an aim of providing safety engineers with an opportunity to appreciate the novel approaches.

scholarly journals RiskStructures: A design algebra for risk-aware machines

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario Gleirscher ◽  
Radu Calinescu ◽  
Jim Woodcock
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Controller Design ◽  
Risk Awareness ◽  
Automated Driving ◽  
Risk Modelling ◽  
Algebraic Properties ◽  
Algebraic Framework ◽  
Key Aspects ◽  
And Control

AbstractMachines, such as mobile robots and delivery drones, incorporate controllers responsible for a task while handling risk (e.g. anticipating and mitigating hazards; preventing and alleviating accidents). We refer to machines with this capability as risk-awaremachines. Risk awareness includes robustness and resilience and complicates monitoring (i.e., introspection, sensing, prediction), decision making, and control. From an engineering perspective, risk awareness adds a range of dependability requirements to system assurance. Such assurance mandates a correct-by-construction approach to controller design, based on mathematical theory.We introduce RiskStructures, an algebraic framework for risk modelling intended to support the design of safety controllers for risk-aware machines. Using the concept of a risk factor as a modelling primitive, this framework provides facilities to construct, examine, and assure these controllers.We prove desirable algebraic properties of these facilities, and demonstrate their applicability by using them to specify key aspects of safety controllers for risk-aware automated driving and collaborative robots.

Discarding optimality: Throwing out the baby with the bathwater?

2018 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Simen ◽  
Fuat Balcı
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Perceptual Decision Making ◽  
Reward Rate ◽  
Perceptual Decision ◽  
Standard Observer ◽  
Rate Maximization ◽  
Reward Rate Maximization ◽  
Descriptive Standard ◽  
Observer Model

AbstractRahnev & Denison (R&D) argue against normative theories and in favor of a more descriptive “standard observer model” of perceptual decision making. We agree with the authors in many respects, but we argue that optimality (specifically, reward-rate maximization) has proved demonstrably useful as a hypothesis, contrary to the authors’ claims.

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