High-Resolution Modeling of the Advance of the Younger Dryas Ice Sheet and Its Climate in Scotland

1999 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alun Hubbard
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Younger Dryas ◽  
Polar Front ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Surface Mass

Ice-sheet modeling tightly constrained by empirical studies provides an effective framework to reconstruct past climatic and environmental conditions. Scotland was severely affected by the abrupt climate change associated with the Younger Dryas Stade, during which an extensive ice sheet formed across the west highlands after a period of ice-free conditions. Here, a quasi-three-dimensional, time-dependent ice flow/mass-balance model is developed and applied to Scotland at 1 km resolution. The flow model is based on the driving stress approximation with an additional longitudinal correction term, essential at this scale of operation. Surface mass balance is driven by temperature and precipitation changes and further mass wastage is achieved through an empirically defined calving term. The ice dynamics and mass-balance components are coupled through the equation for mass continuity, which is integrated through time over a finite-difference grid which yields the geometric evolution of the ice sheet. Initial experiments reveal the model to be relatively insensitive to internal parameters but highly sensitive to mass balance. Furthermore, these experiments indicate that Scotland is readily susceptible to glaciation with large glaciers building up on the flanks of Ben Nevis after a temperature depression of 2.5°C, under present-day precipitation.The Younger Dryas is modeled using a GRIP temperature series locally adjusted for amplitude and a systematic series of runs enables the isolation of the climate which best matches mapped ice limits. This “optimum-fit” configuration requires an annual temperature cooling of 8°C and the introduction of substantial west–east and south–north precipitation gradients of 40 and 50%, respectively, to the present-day regime. Under these conditions, a series of substantial independent regional ice centers develop in agreement with trimline studies and after 550 year the modeled ice sheet closely resembles the maximum limits as indicated by field mapping. However, modeled ice continues to expand beyond 550 yr, in conflict with the mapped ice limits which suggest a prolonged period of stability. This discrepancy may be explained by the onset of extreme aridity ca. 400 yr into the Stade associated with a southern migration of the Polar Front, leading to a reduction in atmospheric circulation which effectively starved the ice sheet of its moisture source, preventing further expansion. Introduction of an additional 20% reduction in precipitation to the “optimum-fit” regime after 350 yr brings the modeled ice sheet to equilibrium, substantiating this conclusion.

scholarly journals Analysis of the surface mass balance for deglacial climate simulations

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 1131-1156
Author(s):  
Marie-Luise Kapsch ◽  
Uwe Mikolajewicz ◽  
Florian A. Ziemen ◽  
Christian B. Rodehacke ◽  
Clemens Schannwell
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Surface Mass

Abstract. A realistic simulation of the surface mass balance (SMB) is essential for simulating past and future ice-sheet changes. As most state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs) are not capable of realistically representing processes determining the SMB, most studies of the SMB are limited to observations and regional climate models and cover the last century and near future only. Using transient simulations with the Max Planck Institute ESM in combination with an energy balance model (EBM), we extend previous research and study changes in the SMB and equilibrium line altitude (ELA) for the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets throughout the last deglaciation. The EBM is used to calculate and downscale the SMB onto a higher spatial resolution than the native ESM grid and allows for the resolution of SMB variations due to topographic gradients not resolved by the ESM. An evaluation for historical climate conditions (1980–2010) shows that derived SMBs compare well with SMBs from regional modeling. Throughout the deglaciation, changes in insolation dominate the Greenland SMB. The increase in insolation and associated warming early in the deglaciation result in an ELA and SMB increase. The SMB increase is caused by compensating effects of melt and accumulation: the warming of the atmosphere leads to an increase in melt at low elevations along the ice-sheet margins, while it results in an increase in accumulation at higher levels as a warmer atmosphere precipitates more. After 13 ka, the increase in melt begins to dominate, and the SMB decreases. The decline in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation after 9 ka leads to an increasing SMB and decreasing ELA. Superimposed on these long-term changes are centennial-scale episodes of abrupt SMB and ELA decreases related to slowdowns of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) that lead to a cooling over most of the Northern Hemisphere.

scholarly journals Surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet from climate-analysis data and accumulation/runoff models

2002 ◽  
Vol 35 ◽  
pp. 67-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward Hanna ◽  
Philippe Huybrechts ◽  
Thomas L. Mote
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Satellite Data ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Surface Elevation ◽  
Great Promise ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Surface Mass

AbstractWe used surface climate fields from high-resolution (~0.5660.56˚) European Centre for Medium-RangeWeather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses (1992–98), together with meteorological and glaciological models of snow accumulation and surface meltwater runoff/retention, to produce novel maps of Greenland ice sheet (GIS) net accumulation, net runoff and surface mass balance (SMB). We compared our runoff maps with similar-scaled runoff (melt minus refreezing) maps based on passive-microwave satellite data. Our gross spatial/temporal patterns of runoff compared well with those from the satellite data, although amounts of modelled runoff are likely too low. Mean accumulation was 0.287 (0.307)ma–1, and mean runoff was 0.128 (0.151)ma–1, averaged across the W. Abdalati (T. L. Mote) GIS mask. Corresponding mean SMB was 0.159 (0.156)ma–1, with considerable interannual variability (standard deviation ~0.11ma–1) primarily due to variations in runoff. Considering best estimates of current iceberg calving, overall the GIS is probably currently losing mass. Our study shows great promise for meaningfully modelling SMB based on forthcoming ``second-generation’’ ECMWF re-analysis (ERA-40) data, and comparing the results with ongoing laser/radarmeasurements of surface elevation. This should help elucidate to what extent surface elevation changes are caused by short-term SMB variations or other factors (e.g. ice dynamics).

Trends and projections in ice sheet mass balance

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Shepherd ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Global Sea Level

<p>In recent decades, the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets have been major contributors to global sea-level rise and are expected to be so in the future. Although increases in glacier flow and surface melting have been driven by oceanic and atmospheric warming, the degree and trajectory of today’s imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite records of changes in polar ice sheet volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of their mass balance. <strong>Since the early 1990’s, ice losses from Antarctica and Greenland have caused global sea-levels to rise by 18.4 millimetres, on average, and there has been a sixfold increase in the volume of ice loss over time. Of this total, 41 % (7.6 millimetres) originates from Antarctica and 59 % (10.8 millimetres) is from Greenland. In this presentation, we compare our reconciled estimates of Antarctic and Greenland ice sheet mass change to IPCC projection of sea level rise to assess the model skill in predicting changes in ice dynamics and surface mass balance.  </strong>Cumulative ice losses from both ice sheets have been close to the IPCC’s predicted rates for their high-end climate warming scenario, which forecast an additional 170 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 when compared to their central estimate.</p>

scholarly journals Estimation of the Antarctic surface mass balance using MAR (1979–2015) and identification of dominant processes

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cécile Agosta ◽  
Charles Amory ◽  
Christoph Kittel ◽  
Anais Orsi ◽  
Vincent Favier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Drifting Snow ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. The Antarctic ice sheet mass balance is a major component of the sea level budget and results from the difference of two fluxes of a similar magnitude: ice flow discharging in the ocean and net snow accumulation on the ice sheet surface, i.e. the surface mass balance (SMB). Separately modelling ice dynamics and surface mass balance is the only way to project future trends. In addition, mass balance studies frequently use regional climate models (RCMs) outputs as an alternative to observed fields because SMB observations are particularly scarce on the ice sheet. Here we evaluate new simulations of the polar RCM MAR forced by three reanalyses, ERA-Interim, JRA-55 and MERRA2, for the period 1979–2015, and we compare our results to the last outputs of the RCM RACMO2 forced by ERA-Interim. We show that MAR and RACMO2 perform similarly well in simulating coast to plateau SMB gradients, and we find no significant differences in their simulated SMB when integrated over the ice sheet or its major basins. More importantly, we outline and quantify missing processes in both RCMs. Along stake transects, we show that both models accumulate too much snow on crests, and not enough snow in valleys, as a result of erosion-deposition processes not included in MAR, where the drifting snow module has been switched off, and probably underestimated in RACMO2 by a factor of three. As a consequence, the amount of drifting snow sublimating in the atmospheric boundary layer remains a potentially large mass sink needed to be better constrained. Moreover, MAR generally simulates larger SMB and snowfall amounts than RACMO2 inland, whereas snowfall rates are significantly lower in MAR than in RACMO2 at the ice sheet margins. This divergent behaviour at the margins results from differences in model parameterisations, as MAR explicitly advects precipitating particles through the atmospheric layers and sublimates snowflakes in the undersaturated katabatic layer, whereas in RACMO2 precipitation is added to the surface without advection through the atmosphere. Consequently, we corroborate a recent study concluding that sublimation of precipitation in the low-level atmospheric layers is a significant mass sink for the Antarctic SMB, as it may represent ∼ 240 ± 25 Gt yr-1 of difference in snowfall between RACMO2 and MAR for the period 1979–2015, which is 10 % of the simulated snowfall loaded on the ice sheet and more than twice the surface snow sublimation as currently simulated by MAR.

scholarly journals Elevation change of the Greenland Ice Sheet due to surface mass balance and firn processes, 1960–2014

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 2009-2025 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Kuipers Munneke ◽  
S. R. M. Ligtenberg ◽  
B. P. Y. Noël ◽  
I. M. Howat ◽  
J. E. Box ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Volume Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Elevation ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Elevation Change ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Surface Mass

Abstract. Observed changes in the surface elevation of the Greenland Ice Sheet are caused by ice dynamics, basal elevation change, basal melt, surface mass balance (SMB) variability, and by compaction of the overlying firn. The last two contributions are quantified here using a firn model that includes compaction, meltwater percolation, and refreezing. The model is forced with surface mass fluxes and temperature from a regional climate model for the period 1960–2014. The model results agree with observations of surface density, density profiles from 62 firn cores, and altimetric observations from regions where ice-dynamical surface height changes are likely small. In areas with strong surface melt, the firn model overestimates density. We find that the firn layer in the high interior is generally thickening slowly (1–5 cm yr−1). In the percolation and ablation areas, firn and SMB processes account for a surface elevation lowering of up to 20–50 cm yr−1. Most of this firn-induced marginal thinning is caused by an increase in melt since the mid-1990s and partly compensated by an increase in the accumulation of fresh snow around most of the ice sheet. The total firn and ice volume change between 1980 and 2014 is estimated at −3295 ± 1030 km3 due to firn and SMB changes, corresponding to an ice-sheet average thinning of 1.96 ± 0.61 m. Most of this volume decrease occurred after 1995. The computed changes in surface elevation can be used to partition altimetrically observed volume change into surface mass balance and ice-dynamically related mass changes.

scholarly journals A new approach to estimate ice dynamic rates using satellite observations in East Antarctica

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 1235-1245 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bianca Kallenberg ◽  
Paul Tregoning ◽  
Janosch Fabian Hoffmann ◽  
Rhys Hawkins ◽  
Anthony Purcell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Satellite Altimetry ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
East Antarctica ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Elevation Changes ◽  
Ice Sheet Mass Balance ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Mass balance changes of the Antarctic ice sheet are of significant interest due to its sensitivity to climatic changes and its contribution to changes in global sea level. While regional climate models successfully estimate mass input due to snowfall, it remains difficult to estimate the amount of mass loss due to ice dynamic processes. It has often been assumed that changes in ice dynamic rates only need to be considered when assessing long-term ice sheet mass balance; however, 2 decades of satellite altimetry observations reveal that the Antarctic ice sheet changes unexpectedly and much more dynamically than previously expected. Despite available estimates on ice dynamic rates obtained from radar altimetry, information about ice sheet changes due to changes in the ice dynamics are still limited, especially in East Antarctica. Without understanding ice dynamic rates, it is not possible to properly assess changes in ice sheet mass balance and surface elevation or to develop ice sheet models. In this study we investigate the possibility of estimating ice sheet changes due to ice dynamic rates by removing modelled rates of surface mass balance, firn compaction, and bedrock uplift from satellite altimetry and gravity observations. With similar rates of ice discharge acquired from two different satellite missions we show that it is possible to obtain an approximation of the rate of change due to ice dynamics by combining altimetry and gravity observations. Thus, surface elevation changes due to surface mass balance, firn compaction, and ice dynamic rates can be modelled and correlated with observed elevation changes from satellite altimetry.

scholarly journals Thermomechanical modelling of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets with a two-level mass-balance parameterization

1995 ◽  
Vol 21 ◽  
pp. 111-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Huybrechts ◽  
Stephen T’ Siobbel
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Summer Temperature ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Geological Evidence

A three-dimensional time-dependent thermomechanical ice-sheet model was used together with a two-level (snow-accumulation/runoff) mass-balance model to investigate the Quaternary ice sheets of the Northern Hemisphere. The model freely generates the ice-sheet geometry in response to specified changes in surface temperature and mass balance, and includes bedrock adjustment, basal sliding and a full temperature calculation within the ice. The mass-balance parameterization makes a distinction between snowfall and melting. Yearly snowfall rates depend on the present precipitation distribution, and are varied proportionally to changes in surface temperature and the moisture content of the air. The ablation model is based on the positive-degree-day method, and distinguishes between ice and snow melting. This paper discusses steady-slate characteristics, conditions for growth and retreat, and response time-scales of ice sheets as a function of a prescribed lowering of summer temperature. Most notably, the modelled extents of the Eurasian ice sheet for a summer temperature lowering of 6–7 K and of the Laurentide ice sheet for a cooling of 9–10 K are in reasonable agreement with most reconstructions based on geological evidence, except for the presence of a large ice sheet stretching from Alaska across the Bering Strait to most of eastern Siberia. In addition, wet basal conditions turned out to be always confined to the margin, whereas central areas in these reconstructions remained always cold-based. This is of relevance for processes involving reduced basal traction.

scholarly journals A surface mass balance model for the Greenland Ice Sheet

2005 ◽  
Vol 110 (F4) ◽  
pp. n/a-n/a ◽  
Author(s):  
Marion Bougamont ◽  
Jonathan L. Bamber ◽  
Wouter Greuell
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Mass Balance Model ◽  
Surface Mass

scholarly journals Elevation change, mass balance, dynamics and surging of Langjökull, Iceland from 1997 to 2007

2016 ◽  
Vol 62 (233) ◽  
pp. 497-511 ◽  
Author(s):  
ALLEN POPE ◽  
IAN C. WILLIS ◽  
FINNUR PÁLSSON ◽  
NEIL S. ARNOLD ◽  
W. GARETH REES ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Source Area ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Mass Balances ◽  
Elevation Change ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Ice Caps

ABSTRACTGlaciers and ice caps around the world are changing quickly, with surge-type behaviour superimposed upon climatic forcing. Here, we study Iceland's second largest ice cap, Langjökull, which has both surge- and non-surge-type outlets. By differencing elevation change with surface mass balance, we estimate the contribution of ice dynamics to elevation change. We use DEMs, in situ stake measurements, regional reanalyses and a mass-balance model to calculate the vertical ice velocity. Thus, we not only compare the geodetic, modelled and glaciological mass balances, but also map spatial variations in glacier dynamics. Maps of emergence and submergence velocity successfully highlight the 1998 surge and subsequent quiescence of one of Langjökull's outlets by visualizing both source and sink areas. In addition to observing the extent of traditional surge behaviour (i.e. mass transfer from the accumulation area to the ablation area followed by recharge of the source area), we see peripheral areas where the surge impinged upon an adjacent ridge and subsequently retreated. While mass balances are largely in good agreement, discrepancies between modelled and geodetic mass balance may be explained by inaccurate estimates of precipitation, saturated adiabatic lapse rate or degree-day factors. Nevertheless, the study was ultimately able to investigate dynamic surge behaviour in the absence of in situ measurements during the surge.

scholarly journals On the climate–geometry imbalance, response time and volume–area scaling of an alpine glacier: insights from a 3-D flow model applied to Vadret da Morteratsch, Switzerland

2015 ◽  
Vol 56 (70) ◽  
pp. 51-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Zekollari ◽  
P. Huybrechts
Keyword(s):  
Response Time ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Flow Model ◽  
Response Times ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Transient State ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Alpine Glacier ◽  
Volume Response

AbstractA two-dimensional surface mass-balance model is coupled to a three-dimensional higher-order ice flow model to assess the imbalance between climate and glacier geometry for the Morteratsch (Engadine, Switzerland) glacier complex. The climate–geometry imbalance has never been larger than at present, indicating that the temperature increase is faster than the geometry is able to adapt to. We derive response times from transient and steady-state geometries and find that the volume response time is correlated to the magnitude of the mass-balance forcing. It varies between 22 and 43 years, while the length response time is between 47 and 55 years. Subsequently, the modelled response times are compared with different analytical methods from the literature. The effect of a climatic perturbation on the response time, which produces a spatially distributed mass-balance forcing, is also examined. We investigate the effect of glacier size on the response time and project that the response time will decrease in the future due to a surface steepening. Finally, volume–area scaling methods with different parameters are tested and an alternative method is proposed that takes into account the surface slope. The effect of a transient state on the method is also evaluated.

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