Glacier Runoff Variation Since 1981 in the Upper Naryn River Catchments, Central Tien Shan

Water resources in Central Asia strongly depend on glaciers, which in turn adjust their size in response to climate variations. We investigate glacier runoff in the period 1981–2019 in the upper Naryn basin, Kyrgyzstan. The basins contain more than 1,000 glaciers, which cover a total area of 776 km2. We model the mass balance and runoff contribution of all glaciers with a simplified energy balance melt model and distributed accumulation model driven by ERA5 LAND re-analysis data for the time period of 1981–2019. The results are evaluated against discharge records, satellite-derived snow cover, stake readings from individual glaciers, and geodetic mass balances. Modelled glacier volume decreased by approximately 6.7 km3 or 14%, and the majority of the mass loss took place from 1996 until 2019. The decreasing trend is the result of increasingly negative summer mass balances whereas winter mass balances show no substantial trend. Analysis of the discharge data suggests an increasing runoff for the past two decades, which is, however only partly reflected in an increase of glacier melt. Moreover, the strongest increase in discharge is observed in winter, suggesting either a prolonged melting period and/or increased groundwater discharge. The average runoff from the glacierized areas in summer months (June to August) constitutes approximately 23% of the total contributions to the basin’s runoff. The results highlight the strong regional variability in glacier-climate interactions in Central Asia.

Suspended sediment and discharge dynamics in a glacierized alpine environment: Identifying crucial areas and time periods on several spatial and temporal scales in the Ötztal, Austria

Climatic changes are expected to fundamentally alter discharge and sediment dynamics in glaciated high alpine areas, e.g. through glacier retreat, prolonged snow-free periods and more frequent intense rainfall events in summer. However, how exactly these hydrological changes will affect sediment dynamics is not yet known. In the present study, we aim to pinpoint areas and processes most relevant to recent sediment and discharge dynamics on different spatial and temporal scales in the Ötztal Alpine Region in Tyrol, Austria. Therefore, we analyze observed discharge and relatively long suspended sediment time series of up to 15 years from three gauges in a nested catchment setup. The catchments range from 100 to almost 800 km2 in size with 10 to 30 % glacier cover and span an elevation range of 930 to 3772 m a.s.l.. The investigation of satellite-based snow cover maps, glacier inventories, mass balances and precipitation data complement the analysis. Our results indicate that mean annual specific discharge and suspended sediment fluxes are highest in the most glaciated sub-catchment and both fluxes correlate significantly with annual glacier mass balances. Furthermore, both discharge and suspended sediment loads show a distinct seasonality with low values during winter and high values during summer. However, the spring onset of sediment transport is almost synchronous at the three gauges, contrary to the spring rise in discharge, which occurs earlier further downstream. A spatio-temporal analysis of snow cover evolution indicates that the spring increase in sediment fluxes at all gauges coincides with the onset of snow melt above 2500 m elevation. Zones above this elevation include glacier tongues and recently deglaciated areas, which seem to be crucial for the sediment dynamics in the catchment. Precipitation events in summer were associated with peak sediment concentrations and fluxes, but on average accounted for only 21 % of the annual sediment yields of the years 2011 to 2020. We conclude that glaciers and the areas above 2500 m elevation play a dominant role for discharge and sediment dynamics in the Ötztal area, while precipitation events play a secondary role. Our study extends the scientific knowledge on current hydro-sedimentological changes in glaciated high alpine areas and provides a baseline for investigations on projected future changes in hydro-sedimentological system dynamics.

Reconstruction of the Historical (1750–2020) Mass Balance of Bordu, Kara-Batkak and Sary-Tor Glaciers in the Inner Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan

The mean specific mass balance of a glacier represents the direct link between a glacier and the local climate. Hence, it is intensively monitored throughout the world. In the Kyrgyz Tien Shan, glaciers are of crucial importance with regard to water supply for the surrounding areas. It is therefore essential to know how these glaciers behave due to climate change and how they will evolve in the future. In the Soviet era, multiple glaciological monitoring programs were initiated but these were abandoned in the nineties. Recently, they have been re-established on several glaciers. In this study, a reconstruction of the mean specific mass balance of Bordu, Kara-Batkak and Sary-Tor glaciers is obtained using a surface energy mass balance model. The model is driven by temperature and precipitation data acquired by combining multiple datasets from meteorological stations in the vicinity of the glaciers and tree rings in the Kyrgyz Tien Shan between 1750 and 2020. Multi-annual mass balance measurements integrated over elevation bands of 100 m between 2013 and 2020 are used for calibration. A comparison with WGMS data for the second half of the 20th century is performed for Kara-Batkak glacier. The cumulative mass balances are also compared with geodetic mass balances reconstructed for different time periods. Generally, we find a close agreement, indicating a high confidence in the created mass balance series. The last 20 years show a negative mean specific mass balance except for 2008–2009 when a slightly positive mass balance was found. This indicates that the glaciers are currently in imbalance with the present climatic conditions in the area. For the reconstruction back to 1750, this study specifically highlights that it is essential to adapt the glacier geometry since the end of the Little Ice Age in order to not over- or underestimate the mean specific mass balance. The datasets created can be used to get a better insight into how climate change affects glaciers in the Inner Tien Shan and to model the future evolution of these glaciers as well as other glaciers in the region.

Acetosolv pretreatment of wood for biorefinery applications

The production of biofuels and biochemicals requires a pretreatment to cleave the composite-like structure of lignocellulosic biomass and thus facilitate further conversion. In the case of liquid-based pretreatment, it is important to know which pretreatment liquids allow for an effective conversion of biomass. For the development of effective pretreatment strategies, simple criteria for a fast evaluation of pretreatment results are advantageous. In this study, we use the example of acetosolv pretreatment of beech wood to explore the influence of composition of the employed acetosolv liquids. To this end, we investigate pretreatment phenomena on different scales including macroscopic disintegration, overall mass balances and compositional changes of beech wood. We relate the investigated phenomena with the type and amount of catalyst acid as well as water content of the employed acetosolv liquids. The results show that disintegration increases with both a higher concentration and acidity of the catalyst acid, while excessive disintegration can be balanced by an increased water content up to equimolar ratios of water and acetic acid. Furthermore, an increasing disintegration correlates with an increasing non-recovered fraction up to a maximum of 40 wt%. The non-recovered fraction in turn linearly depends on the amount of removed hemicellulose and lignin. Overall, a low lignin content together with complete disintegration after pretreatment in acetosolv liquids with a high water content allows for increased sugar yields in subsequent enzymatic hydrolysis. Thus, disintegration and non-recovered fraction serve as a simple indicator for a first assessment of pretreatment effectiveness.

Assimilating near-real-time mass balance stake readings into a model ensemble using a particle filter

Short-term glacier variations can be important for water supplies or hydropower production, and glaciers are important indicators of climate change. This is why the interest in near-real-time mass balance nowcasting is considerable. Here, we address this interest and provide an evaluation of continuous observations of point mass balance based on online cameras transmitting images every 20 min. The cameras were installed on three Swiss glaciers during summer 2019, provided 352 near-real-time point mass balances in total, and revealed melt rates of up to 0.12 m water equivalent per day (mw.e.d-1) and of more than 5 mw.e. in 81 d. By means of a particle filter, these observations are assimilated into an ensemble of three TI (temperature index) and one simplified energy-balance mass balance models. State augmentation with model parameters is used to assign temporally varying weights to individual models. We analyze model performance over the observation period and find that the probability for a given model to be preferred by our procedure is 39 % for an enhanced TI model, 24 % for a simple TI model, 23 %, for a simplified energy balance model, and 14 % for a model employing both air temperature and potential solar irradiation. When compared to reference forecasts produced with both mean model parameters and parameters tuned on single mass balance observations, the particle filter performs about equally well on the daily scale but outperforms predictions of cumulative mass balance by 95 %–96 %. A leave-one-out cross-validation on the individual glaciers shows that the particle filter is also able to reproduce point observations at locations not used for model calibration. Indeed, the predicted mass balances is always within 9 % of the observations. A comparison with glacier-wide annual mass balances involving additional measurements distributed over the entire glacier mostly shows very good agreement, with deviations of 0.02, 0.07, and 0.24 mw.e.

Distributed Energy Balance Flux Modelling of Mass Balances in the Artesonraju Glacier and Discharge in the Basin of Artesoncocha, Cordillera Blanca, Peru

A distributed energy balance model (DEBAM) is applied to estimate the mass balance of the Artesonraju glacier in the Cordillera Blanca (CB), Peru, and to simulate the ensuing discharge into its respective basin, Artesoncocha. The energy balance model calibrations show that, by using seasonal albedos, reasonable results for mass balances and discharge can be obtained, as witnessed by annually aggregated Nash Sutcliffe coefficients (E) of 0.60–0.87 for discharge and of 0.58–0.71 for mass measurements carried out in the period 2004–2007. Mass losses between −1.42 and −0.45 m.w.e. are calculated for that period. The elevation line altitudes (ELAs), which lie between 5009 and 5050 m.a.s.l., are also well simulated, compared to those measured by the Unidad Glaciologica de Recursos Hídricos del Perú (UGRH). It is demonstrated that the net radiation which drives the energy balance and melting processes is mainly affected by the amount of reflected shortwave radiation from the different surfaces. Moreover, the longwave radiation sinks between 63 and 73% of solar radiative energy in the dry season. Further sensitivity studies indicate that the assumed threshold temperature T0 is crucial in mass balance simulations, as it determines the extension of areas with different albedos. An optimal T0 between 2.6 and 3.8 °C is deduced from these simulations.

Validation of a High Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Land Surface Scheme using Catchment Water Balances

An adequate representation of the interaction between the land surface and the atmosphere is critical for both numerical weather prediction and climate models. The surface energy and mass balances are tightly coupled to the terrestrial water cycle, mainly through the state of soil moisture. An inadequate representation of the terrestrial water cycle will deteriorate the state of the land surface model and introduce biases to the atmospheric model. The validation of land-surface models is challenging, as there are very few observations and the soil is highly heterogeneous. In this paper, a validation framework for land-surface schemes based on catchment mass balances is presented. The main focus of our development lies in the application to kilometer-resolution numerical weather prediction and climate models, although the approach is scalable in both space and time. The methodology combines information from multiple observation-based datasets. Observational uncertainties are estimated by using independent sets of observations. It is shown that the combination of observation-based datasets and river discharge measurements close the water balance fairly well for the chosen catchments. As a showcase application, the framework is then applied to compare and validate four different versions ofTERRAML, the land-surface scheme of the COSMO numerical weather prediction and climate model over five mesoscale catchments in Switzerland ranging from 105 km2 to 1713 km2. Despite large observational uncertainties, validation results clearly suggest that errors in terrestrial storage changes are closely linked to errors in runoff generation and emphasize the crucial role of infiltration processes.