Statistical Decision for Bivariate Extremes

1989 ◽  
pp. 246-261 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Tiago de Oliveira
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Decision

A novel approach to white liquor control in a continuous digester using the Box-Jenkins methodology to predict chip bulk density

TAPPI Journal ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 395-402
Author(s):  
FLÁVIO MARCELO CORREIA ◽  
JOSÉ VICENTE HALLAK D’ANGELO ◽  
SUELI APARECIDA MINGOTI
Keyword(s):  
Bulk Density ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Pulp Mill ◽  
Statistical Decision ◽  
White Liquor ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Cooking Process ◽  
Eucalyptus Kraft Pulp ◽  
Relevant Variables ◽  
Kraft Cooking

Alkali charge is one of the most relevant variables in the continuous kraft cooking process. The white liquor mass flow rate can be determined by analyzing the chip bulk density fed to the process. At the mills, the total time for this analysis usually is greater than the residence time in the digester. This can lead to an increasing error in the mass of white liquor added relative to the specified alkali charge. This paper proposes a new approach using the Box-Jenkins methodology to develop a dynamic model for predicting chip bulk density. Industrial data were gathered on 1948 observations over a period of 12 months from a Kamyr continuous digester at a bleached eucalyptus kraft pulp mill in Brazil. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were evaluated according to different statistical decision criteria, leading to the choice of ARIMA (2,0,2) as the best forecasting model, which was validated against a new dataset gathered during 2 months of operations. A combination of predictors has shown more accurate results compared to those obtained by laboratory analysis, allowing a reduction of around 25% of the chip bulk density error to the alkali addition amount.

scholarly journals Bayesian natural selection and the evolution of perceptual systems

2002 ◽  
Vol 357 (1420) ◽  
pp. 419-448 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wilson S. Geisler ◽  
Randy L. Diehl
Keyword(s):  
Natural Selection ◽  
Decision Theory ◽  
Ideal Observer ◽  
Statistical Decision Theory ◽  
Statistical Decision ◽  
Natural Stimuli ◽  
Ideal Observers ◽  
Formal Framework ◽  
Bayesian Statistical Decision Theory ◽  
Perceptual Systems

In recent years, there has been much interest in characterizing statistical properties of natural stimuli in order to better understand the design of perceptual systems. A fruitful approach has been to compare the processing of natural stimuli in real perceptual systems with that of ideal observers derived within the framework of Bayesian statistical decision theory. While this form of optimization theory has provided a deeper understanding of the information contained in natural stimuli as well as of the computational principles employed in perceptual systems, it does not directly consider the process of natural selection, which is ultimately responsible for design. Here we propose a formal framework for analysing how the statistics of natural stimuli and the process of natural selection interact to determine the design of perceptual systems. The framework consists of two complementary components. The first is a maximum fitness ideal observer, a standard Bayesian ideal observer with a utility function appropriate for natural selection. The second component is a formal version of natural selection based upon Bayesian statistical decision theory. Maximum fitness ideal observers and Bayesian natural selection are demonstrated in several examples. We suggest that the Bayesian approach is appropriate not only for the study of perceptual systems but also for the study of many other systems in biology.

scholarly journals Reporting of the Role of the Expert Searcher in Cochrane Reviews

2006 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Zhang ◽  
Margaret Sampson ◽  
Jessie McGowan
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Reviews ◽  
Search Strategy ◽  
Data Extraction ◽  
Cochrane Library ◽  
Eligibility Criteria ◽  
Statistical Decision ◽  
Cochrane Reviews ◽  
Statistical Decisions ◽  
Search Quality

Introduction - This study applied the principles of evidence based information practice to clarify the role of information specialists and librarians in the preparation of Cochrane systematic reviews and to determine whether information specialists impact the quality of searching in Cochrane systematic reviews. Objectives - This research project sought to determine how the contribution of the person responsible for searching in the preparation of Cochrane systematic reviews was reported; whether the contribution was recognized through authorship or acknowledgement; the qualifications of the searcher; and the association between the type of contributorship and characteristics of the search strategy, assessability, and the presence of certain types of errors. Methods - Data sources: The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, The Cochrane Library 3 (2002). Inclusion criteria: The study included systematic reviews that met the following criteria: one or more sections of the Cochrane Highly Sensitive Search Strategy were utilised, primary studies were either randomised controlled trials (RCTs) or quasi-RCTs, and included and excluded studies were clearly identified. Data extraction: Two librarians assessed the searches for errors, establishing consensus on discordant ratings. Results - Of the 169 reviews screened for this project, 105 met all eligibility criteria. Authors fulfilled the searching role in 41.9% of reviews studied, acknowledged persons or groups in 13.3%, a combination in 9.5%, and the role was not reported in 35.2% of reviews. For the 78 reviews in which meta-analyses were performed, the positions of those responsible for statistical decisions were examined for comparative purposes. The statistical role was performed by an author in 47.4% of cases and unreported in the same number of cases. Insufficient analyzable data was obtained regarding professional qualifications (3/105 for searching, 2/78 for statistical decisions). Search quality was assessed for 66 searches across 74 reviews. In general, it was more possible to assess the search quality when the searcher role was reported. An association was found between the reporting of searcher role and the presence of a consequential error. There was no association between the number of consequential errors and how the contribution of the searcher was reported. Conclusions - Qualifications of the persons responsible for searching and statistical decision-making were poorly reported in Cochrane reviews, but more complete role reporting is associated with greater assessability of searches and fewer substantive errors in search strategies.

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