Numerical Simulation of Hydrodynamic Conditions in Rivers Facing Extreme Events Due to the “El Niño” Phenomenon

2020 ◽  
pp. 235-244
Author(s):  
Gabriela Alvarez ◽  
Alvaro Moreno ◽  
Emanuel Guzmán ◽  
Sissi Santos
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Hydrodynamic Conditions

A Numerical Simulation of the Onset of El Niño

1976 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 621-631 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. E. Hurlburt ◽  
John C. Kindle ◽  
James J. O'Brien
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino

scholarly journals The Effect of El Niño on Flood Damages in the Western United States

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 489-504 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas W. Corringham ◽  
Daniel R. Cayan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Southern California ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Opposite Pattern ◽  
Flood Damages ◽  
Insured Losses

Abstract This paper quantifies insured flood losses across the western United States from 1978 to 2017, presenting a spatiotemporal analysis of National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) daily claims and losses over this period. While considerably lower (only 3.3%) than broader measures of direct damages measured by a National Weather Service (NWS) dataset, NFIP insured losses are highly correlated to the annual damages in the NWS dataset, and the NFIP data provide flood impacts at a fine degree of spatial resolution. The NFIP data reveal that 1% of extreme events, covering wide spatial areas, caused over 66% of total insured losses. Connections between extreme events and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that have been documented in past research are borne out in the insurance data. In coastal Southern California and across the Southwest, El Niño conditions have had a strong effect in producing more frequent and higher magnitudes of insured losses, while La Niña conditions significantly reduce both the frequency and magnitude of losses. In the Pacific Northwest, the opposite pattern appears, although the effect is weaker and less spatially coherent. The persistent evolution of ENSO offers the possibility for property owners, policy makers, and emergency planners and responders that unusually high or low flood damages could be predicted in advance of the primary winter storm period along the West Coast. Within the 40-yr NFIP history, it is found that the multivariate ENSO index would have provided an 8-month look-ahead for heightened damages in Southern California.

scholarly journals Understanding the origin of extreme events in El Niño southern oscillation

2020 ◽  
Vol 101 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Arnob Ray ◽  
Sarbendu Rakshit ◽  
Gopal K. Basak ◽  
Syamal K. Dana ◽  
Dibakar Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation

scholarly journals Identificação das causas climáticas dos eventos extremos e dos impactos dos ENOS Canônico e Modoki nas macrorregiões de Alagoas

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 1880-1897
Author(s):  
Djane Fonseca Da Silva ◽  
Pedro Fernandes de Souza Neto ◽  
Silvania Donato da Silva ◽  
Maria José da Silva Lima ◽  
Iara Bezerra da Silva Cavalcante ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
The State ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Eastern Region ◽  
Equatorial Pacific Ocean ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Daily Precipitation Data

Anomalies of sea surface temperature that occur in some regions of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean are being studied because their cause different impacts and originate in different ways, are the ENOS, Modoki and Canonical. The objective of this work is to identify the climatic causes of the extreme events that occurred in the macro-regions of Alagoas, and at the same time, to compare the effects of ENOS Canonical and Modoki and their classes on the macro-regions of Alagoas. The daily precipitation data for 21 municipalities in the State of Alagoas were obtained through the National Water Agency from 1963 to 2014. EN Modoki and low promoted an increase in rainfall in the Eastern region. EN Fortes, on the other hand, caused a decrease in rainfall in the Sertão. Canonical LN events caused a significant increase in rainfall in the three macro-regions, but the effect was better in LN Forte. During the phases of the Atlantic Dipole, the negative phase generated positive SPI across the state, and in the positive phase, there was a decrease in SPI in the East, and a negative SPI record in Sertão and Agreste. The climatic causes of the extreme events were the combination of semiannual, interannual scales, scale between 1-2 years of ENOS, scale of ENOS extended and scale of 11 years (Dipole and sunspots), potentiating the local total rainfall, and for cases of drought , your absence. It was found, through cluster analysis, similarity between the SPIs of La Niña low and La Niña Canonical, and between El Niño Canonical is linked to El Niño Forte. Mathematically, the categories of El Niño and La Niña strong and weak showed better correlations with ENOS Modoki and Canonical, suggesting a pattern for Alagoas.

Niño

Jet Stream ◽  
2019 ◽  
pp. 99-110
Author(s):  
Tim Woollings
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Seasonal Forecasting ◽  
Jet Stream ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The World ◽  
Natural Climate ◽  
Source Of Information

El Niño events are the most powerful of natural climate variations, rearranging weather patterns around the world and triggering countless extreme events. This chapter gives an overview of El Niño, its history and its physics, including its important effect on the Pacific jet stream. El Niño is the main source of information for the science of seasonal forecasting, which is also introduced here.

scholarly journals COVID-19 and Ecosyndemic Vulnerability: Implications for El Niño-Sensitive Countries in Latin America

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivan J. Ramírez ◽  
Jieun Lee
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Health Problem ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
Health Burden ◽  
Highly Sensitive ◽  
Weather And Climate

AbstractLatin America has emerged as an epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic. Brazil, Peru, and Ecuador report some of the highest COVID-19 rates of incidence and deaths in the region. These countries also face synergistic threats from multiple infectious diseases (that is, ecosyndemic) and quasi-periodic El Niño-related hazards every few years. For example, Peru, which is highly sensitive to El Niño, already copes with an ecosyndemic health burden that heightens during and following weather and climate extreme events. Using an ecosyndemic lens, which draws on a multi-disease hazard context of place, this commentary highlights the importance of El Niño as a major factor that not only may aggravate COVID-19 incidence in the future, but also the broader health problem of ecosyndemic vulnerability in Latin America.

scholarly journals ENSO and Extreme Rainfall Events in South America

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (7) ◽  
pp. 1589-1609 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alice M. Grimm ◽  
Renata G. Tedeschi
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Enso Cycle ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
La Nina

Abstract The influence of the opposite phases of ENSO on the frequency of extreme rainfall events over South America is analyzed for each month of the ENSO cycle on the basis of a large set of daily station rainfall data and compared with the influence of ENSO on the monthly total rainfall. The analysis is carried out with station data and their gridded version and the results are consistent. Extreme events are defined as 3-day mean precipitation above the 90th percentile. The mean frequencies of extreme events are determined for each month and for each category of year (El Niño, La Niña, and neutral), and the differences between El Niño and neutral years and La Niña and neutral years are computed. Changes in the mean intensity of extreme events are also investigated. Significant ENSO signals in the frequency of extreme events are found over extensive regions of South America during different periods of the ENSO cycle. Although ENSO-related changes in intensity show less significance and spatial coherence, there are some robust changes in several regions, especially in southeastern South America. The ENSO-related changes in the frequency of extreme rainfall events are generally coherent with changes in total monthly rainfall quantities. However, significant changes in extremes are much more extensive than the corresponding changes in monthly rainfall because the highest sensitivity to ENSO seems to be in the extreme range of daily precipitation. This is important, since the most dramatic consequences of climate variability result from changes in extreme events. The pattern of frequency changes produced by El Niño and La Niña episodes with respect to neutral years is roughly symmetric, but there are several examples of nonlinearity in the ENSO regional teleconnections.

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