Sea-level rise (SLR) is known as a central part of the Earth’s response to human-induced global warming and is projected to continue to rise over the twenty-first century and beyond. The importance of coastal areas for both human and natural systems has led researchers to conduct extensive studies on coastal vulnerability to SLR impacts and develop adaptation options to cope with rising sea level. Investigations to date have focused mostly on developed and highly populated coasts, as well as diverse ecosystems including tidal salt marshes and mangroves. As a result, there is less information on vulnerability and adaptation of less-developed and developing coasts to sea-level rise and its associated impacts. Hence, this research aimed at outlining an appropriate coastal management framework to adapt to SLR on the coasts that are in the early stage of development. A coastal area with a low level of development, located in southern Iran along the Gulf of Oman, was selected as a case study. The types of lands exposed to the high-end estimates of SLR by 2100 were identified and used as the primary criteria in determining the practical adaptation approaches for developing coasts. The result of coastal exposure assessment showed that, of five exposed land cover types, bare land, which is potentially considered for development, has the highest percentage of exposure to future sea-level rise. In order to protect the exposed coastal lands from future development and increase adaptive capacity of coastal systems, we developed a Spatial Integrated SLR Adaptive Management Plan Framework (SISAMP) based on an exposure reduction approach. Spatial land management tools and coastal exposure assessment models along with three other key components were integrated into the proposed conceptual framework to reduce coastal vulnerability through minimizing exposure of coastal communities to SLR-induced impacts. This adaptation plan provides a comprehensive approach for sustainable coastal management in a changing climate, particularly on developing coasts.
Coastal vulnerability assessment of Gulf Islands National Seashore (GUIS) to sea-level rise
