The Impact of Inflation Expectations on Housing Price: Based on the Economic Indicator of Consumer Confidence Index

Author(s):  
Wenhong Li ◽  
Kun Qiu
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 179
Author(s):  
Róbert Oravský ◽  
Peter Tóth ◽  
Anna Bánociová

This paper is devoted to the ability of selected European countries to face the potential economic crisis caused by COVID-19. Just as other pandemics in the past (e.g., SARS, Spanish influenza, etc.) have had negative economic effects on countries, the current COVID-19 pandemic is causing the beginning of another economic crisis where countries need to take measures to mitigate the economic effects. In our analysis, we focus on the impact of selected indicators on the GDP of European countries using a linear panel regression to identify significant indicators to set appropriate policies to eliminate potential negative consequences on economic growth due to the current recession. The European countries are divided into four groups according to the measures they took in the fiscal consolidation of the last economic crisis of 2008. In the analysis, we observed how the economic crisis influences GDP, country indebtedness, deficit, tax collection, interest rates, and the consumer confidence index. Our findings include that corporate income tax recorded the biggest decline among other tax collections. The interest rate grew in the group of countries most at risk from the economic crisis, while the interest rate fell in the group of countries that seemed to be safe for investors. The consumer confidence index can be considered interesting, as it fell sharply in the group of countries affected only minimally by the crisis (Switzerland, Finland).


2019 ◽  
pp. 107-124
Author(s):  
Ha Hoang Thi Thanh ◽  
Bich Tran Thi

A consumer confidence index (CCI) is an important economic indicator which is used to adjust the forecasting of gross domestic product (GDP) and consumer price index (CPI) in the shortterm. Although there exists standard guidelines from the United Nations Statistics Division and European Commission, international experience shows the scale that measures a CCI and the methods of calculating a CCI need to be adapted to the country specific context. Using its own data from the nationally representative survey and factor analysis methods, this paper constructs a scale to measure consumer confidence for Vietnam. The paper, then, computes a CCI and proposes the most appropriate method corresponding to the Vietnamese setting. Validation methods from the paper show that the Vietnamese CCI calculated in the paper reflects approximately the economic picture of the whole country as well as six regions of Vietnam, ensuring the validity of using this index to adjust short-term GDP and CPI forecasts.


Author(s):  
Tonmoy Chatterjee ◽  
Soumyananda Dinda

This chapter attempts to find out the impact of recent recession on the consumption pattern through consumer confidence index (CCI) of selected developed and developing economies. This chapter examines how the macroeconomic variables like growth rate, inflation, unemployment rate and debt-GDP ratio etc. influence the consumer's confidence during 1996-2012, in which the crisis occurred in 2008. Moreover, in this chapter we have explained the role of consumptions sentiment in terms of consumer confidence regarding future expectation. Apart from that, from the panel data set of 11 countries, we have found that more or less all the economies including the United States have experienced downward movement of consumer's confidence in the presence of the great recession of 2008-2009.


2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 515
Author(s):  
Dunyati Ilmiah ◽  
Muhammad Galih Wonoseto

The consumer confidence index is an economic indicator designed to measure consumer confidence or doubt about the economic conditions of a country. The consumer confidence index can have an impact on the level of consumer interest in shopping so that it affects business activities, industry, and has a direct impact on the rate of econom ic growth. The condition of the consumer confidence index continues to improve, even though it is still during the Covid-19 pandemic and is still in the pessimistic zone, namely the index is below 100, the August 2020 consumer confidence index is 86.9 that is higher than in July 2020 of 86.2. This study uses trend analysis to estimate or forecast the future, and data obtained from the Bank Indonesia Consumer Survey. The results of this study show that the improvement in consumer confidence is drive by consumer perceptions of current economic conditions, namely increased income, job availability, and purchasing of goods.


2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 159
Author(s):  
Deimante Teresiene ◽  
Greta Keliuotyte-Staniuleniene ◽  
Yiyi Liao ◽  
Rasa Kanapickiene ◽  
Ruihui Pu ◽  
...  

The COVID-19 pandemic and induced economic and social constraints have significantly impacted the confidence of both consumers and businesses. Despite that, comprehensive studies of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the consumer and business sentiment are still lacking. Thus, in our research we aim to identify consumer and business confidence indicators’ reaction to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Eurozone, the United States, and China. For this purpose, we used the method of correlation–regression analysis. We chose the consumer-confidence index, manufacturing purchasing manager’s index, and services purchasing manager’s index as dependent variables; and the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, the number of deaths caused by COVID-19, and the mortality rate of COVID-19 infections as independent variables. The results showed a relatively rapid and robust effect of COVID-19 in the short period, but longer-term results depended on the region and were not so unambiguous: in the case of the Eurozone, the spread of COVID-19 pandemic did not affect the consumer-confidence index (CCI) or, in the cases of the United States and China, affected this index negatively; the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in the services sector was significantly negatively affected by the mortality risk of COVID-19 infection; and the impact on the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in the manufacturing industry appeared to be mixed.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 804
Author(s):  
Jean Dubé ◽  
Maha AbdelHalim ◽  
Nicolas Devaux

Many applications have relied on the hedonic pricing model (HPM) to measure the willingness-to-pay (WTP) for urban externalities and natural disasters. The classic HPM regresses housing price on a complete list of attributes/characteristics that include spatial or environmental amenities (or disamenities), such as floods, to retrieve the gradients of the market (marginal) WTP for such externalities. The aim of this paper is to propose an innovative methodological framework that extends the causal relations based on a spatial matching difference-in-differences (SM-DID) estimator, and which attempts to calculate the difference between sale price for similar goods within “treated” and “control” groups. To demonstrate the potential of the proposed spatial matching method, the researchers present an empirical investigation based on the case of a flood event recorded in the city of Laval (Québec, Canada) in 1998, using information on transactions occurring between 1995 and 2001. The research results show that the impact of flooding brings a negative premium on the housing price of about 20,000$ Canadian (CAN).


2021 ◽  
pp. 101944
Author(s):  
Xianhang Qian ◽  
Shanyun Qiu ◽  
Guangli Zhang
Keyword(s):  

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