Economic Cycles in a Behavioral Disequilibrium Perspective

1997 ◽  
pp. 29-49
Author(s):  
Erik Mosekilde ◽  
John D. Sterman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Cycles

Finn Kydland and Edward Prescott: Driving Forces behind Economic Cycles (2004 Nobel Prize in Economics)

2005 ◽  
pp. 133-143 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Balashova
Keyword(s):  
Nobel Prize ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Microeconomic Theory ◽  
Business Cycle Theory ◽  
Economic Cycles ◽  
Cyclical Fluctuations ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Time To Build ◽  
New Business ◽  
Extensive Research Program

The method of analyzing and modeling cyclical fluctuations of economy initiated by F. Kydland and E. Prescott - the 2004 Nobel Prize winners in Economics - is considered in the article. They proposed a new business cycle theory integrating the theory of long-run economic growth as well as the microeconomic theory of consumers and firms behavior. Simple version of general dynamic and stochastic macroeconomic model is described. The given approach which was formulated in their fundamental work "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations" (1982) gave rise to an extensive research program and is still used as a basic instrument for investigating cyclical processes in economy nowadays.

Integrating economic cycles theory with equilibrium theory (the second half of the 1920s and 1930s) and N. D. Kondratiev’s project of economic dynamics

2014 ◽  
pp. 22-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Makasheva
Keyword(s):  
Economic Theory ◽  
Equilibrium Theory ◽  
Economic Dynamics ◽  
Economic Cycles

The article considers the ways to overcome the methodological gap between the analysis of economic cycles and the pure economic theory as suggested by the Western economists in the 1920s and 1930s. In this context, N. D. Kondratiev’s project of economic dynamics is analyzed, which implied a radically different vision of the opportunities to solve this problem.

Sustainable Development Through Innovation In Service Sector

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 175-178
Author(s):  
Ilie Banu ◽  
Ioana Madalina Butiuc
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Tax Evasion ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Service Innovation ◽  
Slow Recovery ◽  
Quality Research ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Economic Cycles ◽  
Sustainable Development Indicators ◽  
Research And Innovation

AbstractRegarding the economic crises and the slow recovery that still continues, we believe that a solution can be improving the capacity to research and innovate in order to achieve sustainable development. Another key issue of the paper is about developing the cooperation between academia and business. The challenge of this development is how to increase the amount to finance research and innovation that can be implemented in the economy. As a global solution, to this problem we can recommend, for example, reducing tax evasion and by fiscal education. Also particular sources have to be found in order to develop innovation on SME level. It is essential for innovation to make quality research in order to be better prepared and increase adaptability to economic cycles. The aim of the paper is to find out how service innovation and cooperation between academia and business can enhance sustainable development indicators. The conclusions of the paper are structured in particular proposals and recommendations.

Measuring economic cycles in data

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph L. Breeden
Keyword(s):  
Economic Cycles

Economic Cycles: Their Law and Cause. Henry Ludwell Moore

1915 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 514-517 ◽  
Author(s):  
James D. Magee
Keyword(s):  
Economic Cycles

scholarly journals Linkages between Energy Delivery and Economic Growth from the Point of View of Sustainable Development and Seaports

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (14) ◽  
pp. 4255
Author(s):  
Elżbieta Szaruga ◽  
Zuzanna Kłos-Adamkiewicz ◽  
Agnieszka Gozdek ◽  
Elżbieta Załoga
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Cross Correlation ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Oil Products ◽  
Modern Approach ◽  
Economic Cycles ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The One ◽  
Oil And Oil Products

This paper presents the synchronisation of economic cycles of GDP and crude oil and oil products cargo volumes in major Polish seaports. On the one hand, this issue fits into the concept of sustainable development including decoupling; on the other hand, the synchronisation may be an early warning tool. Crude oil and oil products cargo volumes are a specific barometer that predicts the next economic cycle, especially as they are primary sources of energy production. The research study applies a number of TRAMO/SEATS methods, the Hodrick–Prescott filter, spectral analysis, correlation and cross-correlation function. Noteworthy is the modern approach of using synchronisation of economic cycles as a tool, which was described in the paper. According to the study results, the cyclical components of the cargo traffic and GDP were affected by the leakage of other short-term cycles. However, based on the cross-correlation, it was proved that changes in crude oil and oil products cargo volumes preceded changes in GDP by 1–3 quarters, which may be valuable information for decision-makers and economic development planners.

Child Money and Food Stamps: A comparative analysis of Mongolian welfare programmes in the Ger Districts of Ulaanbaatar

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (4) ◽  
pp. 499-524
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Fox
Keyword(s):  
Participant Observation ◽  
Food Stamps ◽  
Means Testing ◽  
Economic Cycles ◽  
Funding Sources ◽  
Urban Migrants ◽  
Multi Level ◽  
Welfare Model ◽  
Level Analysis

Abstract Until recently, the Mongolian welfare system was entirely category based. However, a new food stamps programme funded by loans from the Asian Development Bank, which targets aid according to proxy means testing, has been introduced as part of the bank’s aim to push Mongolia towards a fiscally sustainable welfare model. The food stamps programme is presented as efficient and responsible in contrast to Mongolia’s universal child money programme. Based on long-term participant observation research in the ger districts of Ulaanbaatar, areas inhabited by many rural-urban migrants living in poverty, this paper compares the two programmes, interweaving street-level accounts of the experiences of residents and bureaucrats alike with the respective histories and funding sources of the two programmes. Doing so provides a multi-level analysis of the emergent welfare state in Mongolia, unpicking the ‘system’ that ger district residents encounter, linking the relative influence of international financial institutions to democratic and economic cycles, and offering a critique of the supposed efficiency of targeted welfare programmes.

scholarly journals A Dynamic Factor and Neural Networks Analysis of the Co-movement of Public Revenues in the EMU

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cosimo Magazzino ◽  
Marco Mele
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Common Factor ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Dynamic Factor ◽  
Common Component ◽  
Economic Cycles ◽  
Composite Nature ◽  
Empirical Demonstration ◽  
Public Revenues

AbstractThis paper shows that the co-movement of public revenues in the European Monetary Union (EMU) is driven by an unobserved common factor. Our empirical analysis uses yearly data covering the period 1970–2014 for 12 selected EMU member countries. We have found that this common component has a significant impact on public revenues in the majority of the countries. We highlight this common pattern in a dynamic factor model (DFM). Since this factor is unobservable, it is difficult to agree on what it represents. We argue that the latent factor that emerges from the two different empirical approaches used might have a composite nature, being the result of both the more general convergence of the economic cycles of the countries in the area and the increasingly better tuned tax structure. However, the original aspect of our paper is the use of a back-propagation neural networks (BPNN)-DF model to test the results of the time-series. At the level of computer programming, the results obtained represent the first empirical demonstration of the latent factor’s presence.

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