Science Inspiring Diplomacy: The Improbable Montreal Protocol

2009 ◽  
pp. 13-19
Author(s):  
Richard E. Benedick
Keyword(s):  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Estrada ◽  
Dukpa Kim ◽  
Pierre Perron

AbstractDue to various feedback processes called Arctic amplification, the high-latitudes’ response to increases in radiative forcing is much larger than elsewhere in the world, with a warming more than twice the global average. Since the 1990’s, this rapid warming of the Arctic was accompanied by no-warming or cooling over midlatitudes in the Northern Hemisphere in winter (the hiatus). The decrease in the thermal contrast between Arctic and midlatitudes has been connected to extreme weather events in midlatitudes via, e.g., shifts in the jet stream towards the equator and increases in the probability of high-latitude atmospheric blocking. Here we present an observational attribution study showing the spatial structure of the response to changes in radiative forcing. The results also connect the hiatus with diminished contrast between temperatures over regions in the Arctic and midlatitudes. Recent changes in these regional warming trends are linked to international actions such as the Montreal Protocol, and illustrate how changes in radiative forcing can trigger unexpected responses from the climate system. The lesson for climate policy is that human intervention with the climate is already large enough that even if stabilization was attained, impacts from an adjusting climate are to be expected.


AJIL Unbound ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 115 ◽  
pp. 80-85
Author(s):  
Daniel Bodansky

After four years of not simply inaction but significant retrogression in U.S. climate change policy, the Biden administration has its work cut out. As a start, it needs to undo what Trump did. The Biden administration took a step in that direction on Day 1 by rejoining the Paris Agreement. But simply restoring the pre-Trump status quo ante is not enough. The United States also needs to push for more ambitious global action. In part, this will require strengthening parties’ nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement; but it will also require actions by what Sue Biniaz, the former State Department climate change lawyer, likes to call the Greater Metropolitan Paris Agreement—that is, the array of other international actors that help advance the Paris Agreement's goals, including global institutions such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the Montreal Protocol, and the World Bank, as well as regional organizations and non-state actors. Although the Biden administration can pursue some of these international initiatives directly through executive action, new regulatory initiatives will face an uncertain fate in the Supreme Court. So how much the Biden Administration is able to achieve will likely depend significantly on how much a nearly evenly-divided Congress is willing to support.


2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter G. Simmonds ◽  
Matthew Rigby ◽  
Archibold McCulloch ◽  
Simon O'Doherty ◽  
Dickon Young ◽  
...  

Abstract. High frequency, in situ global observations of HCFC-22 (CHClF2), HCFC-141b (CH3CCl2F), HCFC-142b (CH3CClF2) and HCFC-124 (CHClFCF3) and their main HFC replacements HFC-134a (CH2FCF3), HFC-125 (CHF2CF3), HFC-143a (CH3CF3), and HFC-32 (CH2F2) have been used to determine their changing global growth rates and emissions in response to the Montreal Protocol and its recent amendments. The 2007 adjustment to the Montreal Protocol required the accelerated phase-out of HCFCs with global production and consumption capped in 2013, to mitigate their environmental impact as both ozone depleting substances and important greenhouse gases. We find that this change has coincided with a reduction in global emissions of the four HCFCs with aggregated global emissions in 2015 of 444 ± 75 Gg/yr, in CO2 equivalent units (CO2 e) 0.75 ± 0.1 Gt/yr, compared with 483 ± 70 Gg/yr (0.82 ± 0.1 Gt/yr CO2 e) in 2010. (All quoted uncertainties in this paper are 1 sigma). About 80 % of the total HCFC atmospheric burden in 2015 is HCFC-22, where global HCFC emissions appear to have been relatively constant in spite of the 2013 cap on global production and consumption. We attribute this to a probable increase in production and consumption of HCFC-22 in Montreal Protocol Article 5 (developing) countries and the continuing release of HCFC-22 from the large banks which dominate HCFC global emissions. Conversely, the four HFCs all show increasing annual growth rates with aggregated global HFCs emissions in 2015 of 329 ± 70 Gg/yr (0.65 ± 0.12 Gt/yr CO2 e) compared to 2010 with 240 ± 50 Gg/yr (0.47 ± 0.08 Gt/yr CO2 e). As HCFCs are replaced by HFCs we investigate the impact of the shift to refrigerant blends which have lower global warming potentials (GWPs). We also note that emissions of HFC-125 and HFC-32 appear to have increased more rapidly during the 2011–2015 5-yr period compared to 2006–2010.


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