Abstract. Droughts are a naturally re-occurring phenomena that result in economic and
societal losses. Yet, the most historic droughts that occurred in the 1930s
and 1950s in the Great Plains and western United States were both shorter in
duration and less severe than megadroughts that have plagued the region in
the past. Roughly 4200 years ago, a ∼150-year long megadrought occurred
in the central Rocky Mountains, as indicated by sedimentary pollen evidence
documenting a brief and unique change in vegetation composition
from Long Lake, southeastern Wyoming. Neighbouring the central Rocky Mountains, several
dune fields reactivated in the western Great Plains around this time period
illustrating a severe regional drought. While sedimentary pollen provides
evidence of past drought, paleoecological evidence does not provide context
for the climate mechanisms that may have caused the drought. Thus, a modern
climate analogue technique was applied to the sedimentary pollen and regional
dune reactivation evidence identified from the region to provide a conceptual
framework for exploring possible mechanisms responsible for the observed
ecological changes. The modern climate analogues of 2002/2012 illustrate that
warm and dry conditions persisted through the growing season and were
associated with anomalously higher-than-normal geopotential heights centred
over the Great Plains. In the spring, higher-than-normal heights suppressed
moisture transport via the low-level jet from the Gulf of Mexico creating a
more southwesterly component of flow. In the summer, higher-than-normal
heights persisted over the northern Great Plains resulting in a wind shift
with an easterly component of flow, drawing in dry continental air into the
study region. In both cases, lower-than-normal moisture in the atmosphere
(via 850 mbar specific humidity) inhibited uplift and potential
precipitation. Thus, if the present scenario existed during the 4.2 ka
drought, the associated climatic responses are consistent with local and
regional proxy data suggesting regional drought conditions in the central
Rocky Mountains and western Great
Plains.