Climate Change Impacts on River Catchment Hydrology Using Dynamic Downscaling of Global Climate Models

2011 ◽  
pp. 281-287 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ch. Skoulikaris ◽  
J. Ganoulis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Catchment Hydrology ◽  
Dynamic Downscaling ◽  
River Catchment

scholarly journals Global Potato Yields Increase Under Climate Change With Adaptation and CO2 Fertilisation

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stewart A. Jennings ◽  
Ann-Kristin Koehler ◽  
Kathryn J. Nicklin ◽  
Chetan Deva ◽  
Steven M. Sait ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
National Scale ◽  
Modeling Studies ◽  
Potato Yields

The contribution of potatoes to the global food supply is increasing—consumption more than doubled in developing countries between 1960 and 2005. Understanding climate change impacts on global potato yields is therefore important for future food security. Analyses of climate change impacts on potato compared to other major crops are rare, especially at the global scale. Of two global gridded potato modeling studies published at the time of this analysis, one simulated the impacts of temperature increases on potential potato yields; the other did not simulate the impacts of farmer adaptation to climate change, which may offset negative climate change impacts on yield. These studies may therefore overestimate negative climate change impacts on yields as they do not simultaneously include CO2 fertilisation and adaptation to climate change. Here we simulate the abiotic impacts of climate change on potato to 2050 using the GLAM crop model and the ISI-MIP ensemble of global climate models. Simulations include adaptations to climate change through varying planting windows and varieties and CO2 fertilisation, unlike previous global potato modeling studies. Results show significant skill in reproducing observed national scale yields in Europe. Elsewhere, correlations are generally positive but low, primarily due to poor relationships between national scale observed yields and climate. Future climate simulations including adaptation to climate change through changing planting windows and crop varieties show that yields are expected to increase in most cases as a result of longer growing seasons and CO2 fertilisation. Average global yield increases range from 9 to 20% when including adaptation. The global average yield benefits of adaptation to climate change range from 10 to 17% across climate models. Potato agriculture is associated with lower green house gas emissions relative to other major crops and therefore can be seen as a climate smart option given projected yield increases with adaptation.

Partnerships to Visualize Climate Change Futures in Tampa Bay, Florida

2019 ◽  
Vol 41 (3) ◽  
pp. 42-47
Author(s):  
Rebecca K. Zarger ◽  
Gina Larsen ◽  
Alexis Winter ◽  
Libby Carnahan ◽  
Ramona Madhosingh-Hector ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Tampa Bay ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Extension Agents ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
The Public

Abstract Our project investigates public perceptions of climate change risk and vulnerability in the Tampa Bay, Florida, region, specifically focused on how climate change is likely to impact water infrastructure in the area. As part of the project, our research team of anthropologists and environmentally-focused state extension agents collaboratively developed public workshops to promote more dialogue on local climate change impacts. The anthropologists developed localized climate change scenarios based on global climate models, Florida-centric models, and input from key informants. Extension agents brought expertise in climate and sustainability science and facilitating educational programming and dialogue. We documented residents' concerns and views on climate change, how local scenarios are received by the public, and how scenarios can be communicated to the public through narrative and visual formats. We consider the roles of anthropologist-extension agent partnerships in creating new spaces for dialogue on climate change futures.

scholarly journals Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Rice Growth and Yield under Global Warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C in the Pearl River Delta, China

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 567 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yahui Guo ◽  
Wenxiang Wu ◽  
Mingzhu Du ◽  
Xiaoxuan Liu ◽  
Jingzhe Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Pearl River Delta ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Pearl River ◽  
Rice Growth ◽  
The Pearl River Delta ◽  
The Pearl River

In this study, the potential climate change impacts on rice growth and rice yield under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios, respectively, are simulated using the Ceres-Rice Model based on high-quality, agricultural, experimental, meteorological and soil data, and the incorporation of future climate data generated by four Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Pearl River Delta, China. The climatic data is extracted from four Global Climate Models (GCMs) namely: The Community Atmosphere Model 4 (CAM4), The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts-Hamburg 6 (ECHAM6), Model for Interdisciplinary Research On Climate 5 (MIROC5) and the Norwegian Earth System Model 1 (NorESM1). The modeling results show that climate change has major negative impacts on both rice growth and rice yields at all study sites. More specifically, the average of flowering durations decreases by 2.8 days (3.9 days), and the maturity date decreases by 11.0 days (14.7 days) under the 1.5 °C and (2.0 °C) warming scenarios, respectively. The yield for early mature rice and late mature rice are reduced by 292.5 kg/ha (558.9 kg/ha) and 151.8 kg/ha (380.0 kg/ha) under the 1.5 °C (2.0 °C) warming scenarios, respectively. Adjusting the planting dates of eight days later and 15 days earlier for early mature rice and late mature rice are simulated to be adaptively effective, respectively. The simulated optimum fertilizer amount is about 240 kg/ha, with different industrial fertilizer and organic matter being applied.

scholarly journals Mid-Century Climate Change Impacts on Ouémé River Discharge at Bonou Outlet (Benin)

Hydrology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnidé Emmanuel Lawin ◽  
Rita Hounguè ◽  
Yèkambèssoun N’Tcha M’Po ◽  
Nina Rholan Hounguè ◽  
André Attogouinon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Mapping Method ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Distributed Model

This work focuses on impacts of climate change on Ouémé River discharge at Bonou outlet based on four global climate models (GCM) over Ouémé catchment from 1971 to 2050. Empirical quantile mapping method is used for bias correction of GCM. Furthermore, twenty-five rain gauges were selected among which are three synoptic stations. The semi-distributed model HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Modeling System from Hydrologic Engineering Center) is used to simulate runoff. As results, HEC-HMS showed ability to simulate runoff while taking into account land use and cover change. In fact, Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE) coefficient was 0.94 and 0.91 respectively in calibration and validation. Moreover, Ouémé River discharge is projected to decrease about 6.58 m3/s under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5) while an insignificant increasing trend is found under RCP 8.5. Therefore, water resource management infrastructure, especially dam construction, has to be developed for water shortage prevention. In addition, it is essential to account for uncertainties when designing such sensitive infrastructure for flood management.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower in Yunnan, China

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 197 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benxi Liu ◽  
Jay Lund ◽  
Lingjun Liu ◽  
Shengli Liao ◽  
Gang Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Southwest China ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Hydropower Generation ◽  
Jinsha River

Climate change could have dire effects on hydropower systems, especially in southwest China, where hydropower dominates the regional power system. This study examines two large cascade hydropower systems in Yunnan province in southwest China for 10 climate change projections made with 5 global climate models (GCMs) and 2 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). First, a back propagation neural network rain-runoff model is built for each hydropower station to estimate inflows with climate change. Then, a progressive optimality algorithm maximizes hydropower generation for each projection. The results show generation increasing in each GCM projection, but increasing more in GCMs under scenario RCP8.5. However, yearly generation fluctuates more: generation decreases dramatically with potential for electricity shortages in dry years and more electricity as well as spill during wet years. Average annual spill, average annual inflow and average storage have similar trends. The analysis indicates that a planned large dam on the upper Jinsha River would increase seasonal regulation ability, increase hydropower generation, and decrease spill. Increased turbine capacity increases generation slightly and decreases spill for the Lancang River. Results from this study demonstrate effects of climate change on hydropower systems and identify which watersheds might be more vulnerable, along with some actions that could help adapt to climate change.

scholarly journals UNCERTAINTY OF CLIMATE PROJECTIONS AND AN APPROACH UTILIZING CLIMATE MODEL OUTPUTS FOR HYDROLOGIC COMPUTATION IN THE BA RIVER BASIN

2018 ◽  
Vol 56 (6) ◽  
pp. 732
Author(s):  
Anh Thi Van Vu ◽  
Thuc Tran ◽  
Minh Truong Ha ◽  
Lanh Thi Minh Pham
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Basin Scale

A top-down approach begins with Global Climate Models (GCMs) is a common method for assessing climate change impacts on water resources in river basins. To overcome the coarse resolution of GCMs, dynamic downscaling by regional climate models (RCMs) with bias-correction procedures is utilized with the aim to reflect the meteorological features at the river basin scale. However, the results still entail large uncertainties. This paper examines the ability to capture the observed baseline temperature and precipitation (1986-2005) in the Ba River Basin from GCM outputs, RCM outputs, bias-corrected GCM outputs and bias-corrected RCM outputs by analyzing statistical indicators between historical simulations and observed data in 4 temperature and 6 rainfall stations. Bias-corrected results of both GCM and RCM have significantly smaller errors compared to the unbias-corrected ones. The uncertainty of future climate projection for the mid and late 21th century of the bias-corrected GCMs and RCMs are evaluated. It is found that there is still uncertainty in projected results. A concept of “Decision-Scaling” which combines top-down and bottom-up approaches is proposed to assess the climate change impacts on hydrological system to take into account uncertainties of climate projections by models.

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