scholarly journals Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower in Yunnan, China

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 197 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benxi Liu ◽  
Jay Lund ◽  
Lingjun Liu ◽  
Shengli Liao ◽  
Gang Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Southwest China ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Hydropower Generation ◽  
Jinsha River

Climate change could have dire effects on hydropower systems, especially in southwest China, where hydropower dominates the regional power system. This study examines two large cascade hydropower systems in Yunnan province in southwest China for 10 climate change projections made with 5 global climate models (GCMs) and 2 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). First, a back propagation neural network rain-runoff model is built for each hydropower station to estimate inflows with climate change. Then, a progressive optimality algorithm maximizes hydropower generation for each projection. The results show generation increasing in each GCM projection, but increasing more in GCMs under scenario RCP8.5. However, yearly generation fluctuates more: generation decreases dramatically with potential for electricity shortages in dry years and more electricity as well as spill during wet years. Average annual spill, average annual inflow and average storage have similar trends. The analysis indicates that a planned large dam on the upper Jinsha River would increase seasonal regulation ability, increase hydropower generation, and decrease spill. Increased turbine capacity increases generation slightly and decreases spill for the Lancang River. Results from this study demonstrate effects of climate change on hydropower systems and identify which watersheds might be more vulnerable, along with some actions that could help adapt to climate change.

scholarly journals Robust increase of Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability under future warming in CMIP-6 models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anja Katzenberger ◽  
Jacob Schewe ◽  
Julia Pongratz ◽  
Anders Levermann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Almost All

Abstract. The Indian summer monsoon is an integral part of the global climate system. As its seasonal rainfall plays a crucial role in India's agriculture and shapes many other aspects of life, it affects the livelihood of a fifth of the world's population. It is therefore highly relevant to assess its change under potential future climate change. Global climate models within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP-5) indicated a consistent increase in monsoon rainfall and its variability under global warming. Since the range of the results of CMIP-5 was still large and the confidence in the models was limited due to partly poor representation of observed rainfall, the updates within the latest generation of climate models in CMIP-6 are of interest. Here, we analyse 32 models of the latest CMIP-6 exercise with regard to their annual mean monsoon rainfall and its variability. All of these models show a substantial increase in June-to-September (JJAS) mean rainfall under unabated climate change (SSP5-8.5) and most do also for the other three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways analyzed (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0). Moreover, the simulation ensemble indicates a linear dependence of rainfall on global mean temperature with high agreement between the models and independent of the SSP; the multi-model mean for JJAS projects an increase of 0.33 mm/day and 5.3 % per degree of global warming. This is significantly higher than in the CMIP-5 projections. Most models project that the increase will contribute to the precipitation especially in the Himalaya region and to the northeast of the Bay of Bengal, as well as the west coast of India. Interannual variability is found to be increasing in the higher-warming scenarios by almost all models. The CMIP-6 simulations largely confirm the findings from CMIP-5 models, but show an increased robustness across models with reduced uncertainties and updated magnitudes towards a stronger increase in monsoon rainfall.

scholarly journals Global Potato Yields Increase Under Climate Change With Adaptation and CO2 Fertilisation

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stewart A. Jennings ◽  
Ann-Kristin Koehler ◽  
Kathryn J. Nicklin ◽  
Chetan Deva ◽  
Steven M. Sait ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
National Scale ◽  
Modeling Studies ◽  
Potato Yields

The contribution of potatoes to the global food supply is increasing—consumption more than doubled in developing countries between 1960 and 2005. Understanding climate change impacts on global potato yields is therefore important for future food security. Analyses of climate change impacts on potato compared to other major crops are rare, especially at the global scale. Of two global gridded potato modeling studies published at the time of this analysis, one simulated the impacts of temperature increases on potential potato yields; the other did not simulate the impacts of farmer adaptation to climate change, which may offset negative climate change impacts on yield. These studies may therefore overestimate negative climate change impacts on yields as they do not simultaneously include CO2 fertilisation and adaptation to climate change. Here we simulate the abiotic impacts of climate change on potato to 2050 using the GLAM crop model and the ISI-MIP ensemble of global climate models. Simulations include adaptations to climate change through varying planting windows and varieties and CO2 fertilisation, unlike previous global potato modeling studies. Results show significant skill in reproducing observed national scale yields in Europe. Elsewhere, correlations are generally positive but low, primarily due to poor relationships between national scale observed yields and climate. Future climate simulations including adaptation to climate change through changing planting windows and crop varieties show that yields are expected to increase in most cases as a result of longer growing seasons and CO2 fertilisation. Average global yield increases range from 9 to 20% when including adaptation. The global average yield benefits of adaptation to climate change range from 10 to 17% across climate models. Potato agriculture is associated with lower green house gas emissions relative to other major crops and therefore can be seen as a climate smart option given projected yield increases with adaptation.

scholarly journals Statistically Downscaled CMIP6 Projections Show Stronger Warming for Germany

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1245
Author(s):  
Frank Kreienkamp ◽  
Philip Lorenz ◽  
Tobias Geiger
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Climate Signal ◽  
Temperature Signal

Climate modelling output that was provided under the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) shows significant changes in model-specific Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) as compared to CMIP5. The newer versions of many Global Climate Models (GCMs) report higher ECS values that result in stronger global warming than previously estimated. At the same time, the multi-GCM spread of ECS is significantly larger than under CMIP5. Here, we analyse how the differences between CMIP5 and CMIP6 affect climate projections for Germany. We use the statistical-empirical downscaling method EPISODES in order to downscale GCM data for the scenario pairs RCP4.5/SSP2-4.5 and RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5. We use data sets of the GCMs CanESM, EC-Earth, MPI-ESM, and NorESM. The results show that the GCM-specific changes in the ECS also have an impact at the regional scale. While the temperature signal under regional climate change remains comparable for both CMIP generations in the MPI-ESM chain, the temperature signal increases by up to 3 °C for the RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 scenario pair in the EC-Earth chain. Changes in precipitation are less pronounced and they only show notable differences at the seasonal scale. The reported changes in the climate signal will have direct consequences for society. Climate change impacts previously projected for the high-emission RCP8.5 scenario might occur equally under the new SSP2-4.5 scenario.

Partnerships to Visualize Climate Change Futures in Tampa Bay, Florida

2019 ◽  
Vol 41 (3) ◽  
pp. 42-47
Author(s):  
Rebecca K. Zarger ◽  
Gina Larsen ◽  
Alexis Winter ◽  
Libby Carnahan ◽  
Ramona Madhosingh-Hector ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Tampa Bay ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Extension Agents ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
The Public

Abstract Our project investigates public perceptions of climate change risk and vulnerability in the Tampa Bay, Florida, region, specifically focused on how climate change is likely to impact water infrastructure in the area. As part of the project, our research team of anthropologists and environmentally-focused state extension agents collaboratively developed public workshops to promote more dialogue on local climate change impacts. The anthropologists developed localized climate change scenarios based on global climate models, Florida-centric models, and input from key informants. Extension agents brought expertise in climate and sustainability science and facilitating educational programming and dialogue. We documented residents' concerns and views on climate change, how local scenarios are received by the public, and how scenarios can be communicated to the public through narrative and visual formats. We consider the roles of anthropologist-extension agent partnerships in creating new spaces for dialogue on climate change futures.

scholarly journals Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Rice Growth and Yield under Global Warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C in the Pearl River Delta, China

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 567 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yahui Guo ◽  
Wenxiang Wu ◽  
Mingzhu Du ◽  
Xiaoxuan Liu ◽  
Jingzhe Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Pearl River Delta ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Pearl River ◽  
Rice Growth ◽  
The Pearl River Delta ◽  
The Pearl River

In this study, the potential climate change impacts on rice growth and rice yield under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios, respectively, are simulated using the Ceres-Rice Model based on high-quality, agricultural, experimental, meteorological and soil data, and the incorporation of future climate data generated by four Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Pearl River Delta, China. The climatic data is extracted from four Global Climate Models (GCMs) namely: The Community Atmosphere Model 4 (CAM4), The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts-Hamburg 6 (ECHAM6), Model for Interdisciplinary Research On Climate 5 (MIROC5) and the Norwegian Earth System Model 1 (NorESM1). The modeling results show that climate change has major negative impacts on both rice growth and rice yields at all study sites. More specifically, the average of flowering durations decreases by 2.8 days (3.9 days), and the maturity date decreases by 11.0 days (14.7 days) under the 1.5 °C and (2.0 °C) warming scenarios, respectively. The yield for early mature rice and late mature rice are reduced by 292.5 kg/ha (558.9 kg/ha) and 151.8 kg/ha (380.0 kg/ha) under the 1.5 °C (2.0 °C) warming scenarios, respectively. Adjusting the planting dates of eight days later and 15 days earlier for early mature rice and late mature rice are simulated to be adaptively effective, respectively. The simulated optimum fertilizer amount is about 240 kg/ha, with different industrial fertilizer and organic matter being applied.

scholarly journals Mid-Century Climate Change Impacts on Ouémé River Discharge at Bonou Outlet (Benin)

Hydrology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnidé Emmanuel Lawin ◽  
Rita Hounguè ◽  
Yèkambèssoun N’Tcha M’Po ◽  
Nina Rholan Hounguè ◽  
André Attogouinon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Mapping Method ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Distributed Model

This work focuses on impacts of climate change on Ouémé River discharge at Bonou outlet based on four global climate models (GCM) over Ouémé catchment from 1971 to 2050. Empirical quantile mapping method is used for bias correction of GCM. Furthermore, twenty-five rain gauges were selected among which are three synoptic stations. The semi-distributed model HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Modeling System from Hydrologic Engineering Center) is used to simulate runoff. As results, HEC-HMS showed ability to simulate runoff while taking into account land use and cover change. In fact, Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE) coefficient was 0.94 and 0.91 respectively in calibration and validation. Moreover, Ouémé River discharge is projected to decrease about 6.58 m3/s under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5) while an insignificant increasing trend is found under RCP 8.5. Therefore, water resource management infrastructure, especially dam construction, has to be developed for water shortage prevention. In addition, it is essential to account for uncertainties when designing such sensitive infrastructure for flood management.

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