scholarly journals Global Potato Yields Increase Under Climate Change With Adaptation and CO2 Fertilisation

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stewart A. Jennings ◽  
Ann-Kristin Koehler ◽  
Kathryn J. Nicklin ◽  
Chetan Deva ◽  
Steven M. Sait ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
National Scale ◽  
Modeling Studies ◽  
Potato Yields

The contribution of potatoes to the global food supply is increasing—consumption more than doubled in developing countries between 1960 and 2005. Understanding climate change impacts on global potato yields is therefore important for future food security. Analyses of climate change impacts on potato compared to other major crops are rare, especially at the global scale. Of two global gridded potato modeling studies published at the time of this analysis, one simulated the impacts of temperature increases on potential potato yields; the other did not simulate the impacts of farmer adaptation to climate change, which may offset negative climate change impacts on yield. These studies may therefore overestimate negative climate change impacts on yields as they do not simultaneously include CO2 fertilisation and adaptation to climate change. Here we simulate the abiotic impacts of climate change on potato to 2050 using the GLAM crop model and the ISI-MIP ensemble of global climate models. Simulations include adaptations to climate change through varying planting windows and varieties and CO2 fertilisation, unlike previous global potato modeling studies. Results show significant skill in reproducing observed national scale yields in Europe. Elsewhere, correlations are generally positive but low, primarily due to poor relationships between national scale observed yields and climate. Future climate simulations including adaptation to climate change through changing planting windows and crop varieties show that yields are expected to increase in most cases as a result of longer growing seasons and CO2 fertilisation. Average global yield increases range from 9 to 20% when including adaptation. The global average yield benefits of adaptation to climate change range from 10 to 17% across climate models. Potato agriculture is associated with lower green house gas emissions relative to other major crops and therefore can be seen as a climate smart option given projected yield increases with adaptation.

scholarly journals Estimating the potential impact of climate change on sunflower yield in the Konya province of Turkey

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Hudaverdi Gurkan ◽  
Vakhtang Shelia ◽  
Nilgun Bayraktar ◽  
Y. Ersoy Yildirim ◽  
Nebi Yesilekin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of climate change on agricultural productivity is difficult to assess. However, determining the possible effects of climate change is an absolute necessity for planning by decision-makers. The aim of the study was the evaluation of the CSM-CROPGRO-Sunflower model of DSSAT4.7 and the assessment of impact of climate change on sunflower yield under future climate projections. For this purpose, a 2-year sunflower field experiment was conducted under semi-arid conditions in the Konya province of Turkey. Rainfed and irrigated treatments were used for model analysis. For the assessment of impact of climate change, three global climate models and two representative concentration pathways, i.e. 4.5 and 8.5 were selected. The evaluation of the model showed that the model was able to simulate yield reasonably well, with normalized root mean square error of 1.3% for the irrigated treatment and 17.7% for the rainfed treatment, a d-index of 0.98 and a modelling efficiency of 0.93 for the overall model performance. For the climate change scenarios, the model predicted that yield will decrease in a range of 2.9–39.6% under rainfed conditions and will increase in a range of 7.4–38.5% under irrigated conditions. Results suggest that temperature increases due to climate change will cause a shortening of plant growth cycles. Projection results also confirmed that increasing temperatures due to climate change will cause an increase in sunflower water requirements in the future. Thus, the results reveal the necessity to apply adequate water management strategies for adaptation to climate change for sunflower production.

scholarly journals Assessment of the Future Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Mangoky River, Madagascar Using ANN and SWAT

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1239
Author(s):  
Mirindra Finaritra Rabezanahary Tanteliniaina ◽  
Md. Hasibur Rahaman ◽  
Jun Zhai
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

The assessment of the impacts of climate change on hydrology is important for better water resources management. However, few studies have been conducted in semi-arid Africa, even less in Madagascar. Here we report, climate-induced future hydrological prediction in Mangoky river, Madagascar using an artificial neural network (ANN) and the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). The current study downscaled two global climate models on the mid-term, noted the 2040s (2041–2050) and long-term, noted 2090s (2091–2099) under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios, SSP 3–7.0 and SSP 5–8.5. Statistical indices of both ANN and SWAT showed good performance (R2 > 0.65) of the models. Our results revealed a rise in maximum temperature (4.26–4.69 °C) and minimum temperature (2.74–3.01 °C) in the 2040s and 2090s. Under SSP 3–7.0 and SSP 5–8.5, a decline in the annual precipitation is projected in the 2040s and increased the 2090s. This study found that future precipitation and temperature could significantly decrease annual runoff by 60.59% and 73.77% in the 2040s; and 25.18% and 23.45% in the 2090s under SSP 3–7.0 and SSP 5–8.5, respectively. Our findings could be useful for the adaptation to climate change, managing water resources, and water engineering.

Partnerships to Visualize Climate Change Futures in Tampa Bay, Florida

2019 ◽  
Vol 41 (3) ◽  
pp. 42-47
Author(s):  
Rebecca K. Zarger ◽  
Gina Larsen ◽  
Alexis Winter ◽  
Libby Carnahan ◽  
Ramona Madhosingh-Hector ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Tampa Bay ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Extension Agents ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
The Public

Abstract Our project investigates public perceptions of climate change risk and vulnerability in the Tampa Bay, Florida, region, specifically focused on how climate change is likely to impact water infrastructure in the area. As part of the project, our research team of anthropologists and environmentally-focused state extension agents collaboratively developed public workshops to promote more dialogue on local climate change impacts. The anthropologists developed localized climate change scenarios based on global climate models, Florida-centric models, and input from key informants. Extension agents brought expertise in climate and sustainability science and facilitating educational programming and dialogue. We documented residents' concerns and views on climate change, how local scenarios are received by the public, and how scenarios can be communicated to the public through narrative and visual formats. We consider the roles of anthropologist-extension agent partnerships in creating new spaces for dialogue on climate change futures.

scholarly journals Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Rice Growth and Yield under Global Warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C in the Pearl River Delta, China

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 567 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yahui Guo ◽  
Wenxiang Wu ◽  
Mingzhu Du ◽  
Xiaoxuan Liu ◽  
Jingzhe Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Pearl River Delta ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Pearl River ◽  
Rice Growth ◽  
The Pearl River Delta ◽  
The Pearl River

In this study, the potential climate change impacts on rice growth and rice yield under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios, respectively, are simulated using the Ceres-Rice Model based on high-quality, agricultural, experimental, meteorological and soil data, and the incorporation of future climate data generated by four Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Pearl River Delta, China. The climatic data is extracted from four Global Climate Models (GCMs) namely: The Community Atmosphere Model 4 (CAM4), The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts-Hamburg 6 (ECHAM6), Model for Interdisciplinary Research On Climate 5 (MIROC5) and the Norwegian Earth System Model 1 (NorESM1). The modeling results show that climate change has major negative impacts on both rice growth and rice yields at all study sites. More specifically, the average of flowering durations decreases by 2.8 days (3.9 days), and the maturity date decreases by 11.0 days (14.7 days) under the 1.5 °C and (2.0 °C) warming scenarios, respectively. The yield for early mature rice and late mature rice are reduced by 292.5 kg/ha (558.9 kg/ha) and 151.8 kg/ha (380.0 kg/ha) under the 1.5 °C (2.0 °C) warming scenarios, respectively. Adjusting the planting dates of eight days later and 15 days earlier for early mature rice and late mature rice are simulated to be adaptively effective, respectively. The simulated optimum fertilizer amount is about 240 kg/ha, with different industrial fertilizer and organic matter being applied.

CLIMATE CHANGE: A 1994 SCIENCE SUMMARY

1994 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 104
Author(s):  
C.D. Mitchell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Improve Model ◽  
Regional Estimates

New observations of the chemical composition of the atmosphere are reshaping scientific understanding of the global sources and sinks of the greenhouse gases. Current trends in the atmospheric concentrations of some of these gases are reviewed, with reference to new work emerging from Antarctic ice cores.Accompanying an understanding of the composition of the atmosphere, is the need to understand the processes which drive the global climate system, including interactions between the atmosphere and oceans. Studies of climatic processes therefore form the scientific underpinning for the development of numerical models that describe the response of the global climate system to observed changes in the composition of the atmosphere.Success or failure in efforts to improve model simulations can be assessed using a variety of objective statistical tests. Examples of such tests show demonstrable progress in the ability of global climate models to simulate the present day climate realistically.Since confidence in the regional details of climate predictions from climate models is low, considerable effort is being devoted to developing models capable of providing improved regional estimates of climate change and in practice a variety of models not limited to the global-scale models are used in this work. In the meantime, several approaches to assessing the potential impacts of climate change are possible. These are discussed with special reference to tropical cyclones and east coast lows.Throughout this review emphasis is placed on recent Australian contributions to the field, most notably work conducted within CSIRO.

scholarly journals Mid-Century Climate Change Impacts on Ouémé River Discharge at Bonou Outlet (Benin)

Hydrology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnidé Emmanuel Lawin ◽  
Rita Hounguè ◽  
Yèkambèssoun N’Tcha M’Po ◽  
Nina Rholan Hounguè ◽  
André Attogouinon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Mapping Method ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Distributed Model

This work focuses on impacts of climate change on Ouémé River discharge at Bonou outlet based on four global climate models (GCM) over Ouémé catchment from 1971 to 2050. Empirical quantile mapping method is used for bias correction of GCM. Furthermore, twenty-five rain gauges were selected among which are three synoptic stations. The semi-distributed model HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Modeling System from Hydrologic Engineering Center) is used to simulate runoff. As results, HEC-HMS showed ability to simulate runoff while taking into account land use and cover change. In fact, Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE) coefficient was 0.94 and 0.91 respectively in calibration and validation. Moreover, Ouémé River discharge is projected to decrease about 6.58 m3/s under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5) while an insignificant increasing trend is found under RCP 8.5. Therefore, water resource management infrastructure, especially dam construction, has to be developed for water shortage prevention. In addition, it is essential to account for uncertainties when designing such sensitive infrastructure for flood management.

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