Future Climate Projections

2013 ◽  
pp. 53-118 ◽  
Author(s):  
Silvio Gualdi ◽  
Samuel Somot ◽  
Wilhelm May ◽  
Sergio Castellari ◽  
Michel Déqué ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Future Climate Projections

Realised added value in dynamical downscaling of Australian climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giovanni Di Virgilio ◽  
Jason P. Evans ◽  
Alejandro Di Luca ◽  
Michael R. Grose ◽  
Vanessa Round ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Australian Alps ◽  
Future Climate Projections

<p>Coarse resolution global climate models (GCM) cannot resolve fine-scale drivers of regional climate, which is the scale where climate adaptation decisions are made. Regional climate models (RCMs) generate high-resolution projections by dynamically downscaling GCM outputs. However, evidence of where and when downscaling provides new information about both the current climate (added value, AV) and projected climate change signals, relative to driving data, is lacking. Seasons and locations where CORDEX-Australasia ERA-Interim and GCM-driven RCMs show AV for mean and extreme precipitation and temperature are identified. A new concept is introduced, ‘realised added value’, that identifies where and when RCMs simultaneously add value in the present climate and project a different climate change signal, thus suggesting plausible improvements in future climate projections by RCMs. ERA-Interim-driven RCMs add value to the simulation of summer-time mean precipitation, especially over northern and eastern Australia. GCM-driven RCMs show AV for precipitation over complex orography in south-eastern Australia during winter and widespread AV for mean and extreme minimum temperature during both seasons, especially over coastal and high-altitude areas. RCM projections of decreased winter rainfall over the Australian Alps and decreased summer rainfall over northern Australia are collocated with notable realised added value. Realised added value averaged across models, variables, seasons and statistics is evident across the majority of Australia and shows where plausible improvements in future climate projections are conferred by RCMs. This assessment of varying RCM capabilities to provide realised added value to GCM projections can be applied globally to inform climate adaptation and model development.</p>

Historical trends and high-resolution future climate projections in northern Tuscany (Italy)

2017 ◽  
Vol 555 ◽  
pp. 708-723 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco D'Oria ◽  
Massimo Ferraresi ◽  
Maria Giovanna Tanda
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Historical Trends ◽  
Future Climate Projections

Drought risk assessment for future climate projections in the Nakdong River Basin, Korea

2020 ◽  
Vol 40 (10) ◽  
pp. 4528-4540 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jong‐Suk Kim ◽  
Seo‐Yeon Park ◽  
Hyun‐Pyo Hong ◽  
Jie Chen ◽  
Si‐Jung Choi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Nakdong River ◽  
Nakdong River Basin ◽  
The Nakdong River ◽  
Future Climate Projections

Ocean Heat Transport’s Response to Future Climate Projections

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer Mecking ◽  
Sybren Drijfhout
Keyword(s):  
Heat Transport ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Pacific Basin ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Ocean Heat Transport ◽  
Atlantic Basin ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
Future Climate Projections

<p>This study investigates the response of the meridional Ocean Heat Transports (OHT) to future climate projections in both CMIP5 and CMIP6 models.  Globally the OHT transport is declining/becoming more southward across all latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, while at latitudes south of 10°S the OHT is icreasing/becoming more northward.  These changes in OHT are much stronger in CMIP6 models relative to CMIP5, especially for the rcp2.6/ssp126 scenario relative to the rcp85/ssp585 scenario.   Throughout the entire Atlantic basin the northward heat transport is reduced and can be tied to the velocity driven overturning (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)) contribution to the OHT.  While the temperature driven changes in the Atlantic basin dampen the changes in the OHT.  In the Indo-Pacific basin the OHT transport north of the equator does not change much since the temperature and velocity driven changes balance each other.   However, south of the equator the increase in northward heat transport is caused by the overturning velocity driven changes and again dampened by temperature driven changes.  These changes in the Indo-Pacific basin can be tied to changes in wind driven subtropical overturning cells.</p>

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