Policy design in the face of a terms of trade shock

Author(s):  
Victor E. Argy
2020 ◽  
pp. 161-182
Author(s):  
Pallavi Raghavan

In this chapter, I chart out how partition shifted the terms of trade between two points now divided by the boundary line. While, on the one hand, both governments made lofty declarations of carrying out trade with one another as independent nation states—taxable, and liable to regulations by both states—on the other, they were also forced to come to a series of arrangements to accommodate commercial transactions to continue in the way that they had always existed before the making of the boundary. In many instances, in fact, it was actually impossible to physically stop the process of commercial transactions between both sides of the border, and the boundary line. Therefore, the question this chapter is concerned with is the extent to which both governments’ positions were amenable to the necessities of contingency, demand, and genuine emergency, in the face of a great deal of rhetoric about how the Indian and Pakistani economies had to be bolstered on their own merits.


1986 ◽  
Vol 118 ◽  
pp. 18-29

After a disappointing first quarter in which, in broad terms, the small growth in output in the OECD area could be attributed wholly to stock movements in the US, the second quarter brought a considerable improvement. Though US stockbuilding was much smaller, OECD countries' total GDP appears to have risen by about 1 per cent, with notably rapid growth in major countries where output had fallen in the first quarter (Germany especially, Japan, France and, on some estimates, Italy). This acceleration, based largely on consumers' expenditure, was moreover achieved in the face of adverse developments in the foreign trade sector, with many non-OECD countries, the oil producers in particular, reducing the volume of their imports to compensate in part for a worsening in their terms of trade.


Author(s):  
Cesar N. Cruz-Rubio

Due progressive influence of the Open-Government (OpGov) movement as an emerging paradigm over several nation state-reforms and over debates and processes around the world (Ramírez-Alujas & Cruz-Rubio, 2012) this paper seeks to identify and explore the main elements in defining and analyzing policy designs in the face of the Open Government perspective. Specifically, this effort addresses several questions: What policy-design dimensions (tools, instruments and rationales) may define a policy design as an “open policy design”? What directions should take policy-research in order to cope adequately with this (presumably) new subject of study?


Author(s):  
Sebastian Sewerin ◽  
Tobias S. Schmidt

Renewable energy is a distinct policy field encompassing both economic and environmental considerations. How these are balanced in the face of the 2007–8 economic crisis is an important question relating to the general stickiness of environmental policies. In this chapter, we investigate long-term policy dynamics across both EU and non-EU countries and across three levels of policy change. Using an Index of Policy Activity (IPA) dataset of 562 policies, we analyse the general direction of overall change in policy mixes (macro-level), the dynamics of policy instrument type use (meso-level), and change to policy design (micro-level). We find that, while the crisis marks a turning point in the speed of policy change, the direction of policy change alters only in Ireland and the UK—namely towards policy dismantling. However, we show that dismantling and expansion unfold differently at the policy meso- and micro-levels, adding further nuance to the empirical analysis of dynamics of policy change.


2012 ◽  
Vol 102 (3) ◽  
pp. 376-380 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nancy L Rose

Among Alfred E. “Fred” Kahn's many accomplishments, none is better remembered than his pivotal role in deregulation of the US airline industry. Kahn's commitment to marry core microeconomic principles with institutional analysis, willingness as Chairman of the Civil Aeronautics Board to step outside the “regulation as usual box,” and appealing wit made him the face of the Airline Deregulation Act of 1978, one of the great microeconomic policy triumphs. Lessons drawn from Kahn's work and the airline deregulation experience remain instructive for current academic research and regulatory policy design across broad sectors of the economy.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
ZEYNEP KANTUR ◽  
GÜLSERİM ÖZCAN

The last decades proved that policymaking without considering uncertainty is impracticable. In an environment of uncertainty, policymakers have doubts about the policy models they routinely use. This paper focuses specifically on the situation where uncertainty on the financial side of the economy leads to misspecification in the policy model. We describe a coherent strategy for policymakers who are averse to model misspecification and analyze optimal policy design in the face of Knightian uncertainty. To do so, we augment a financial dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with model misspecification in a simple minimax framework where the central bank plays a zero-sum game versus a hypothetical evil agent. The policy is tailored to insure against the worst-case outcomes. We show that model ambiguity on the financial side requires a passive monetary policy stance. However, if the uncertainty originates from the supply side of the economy, an aggressive response of interest rate is required. We also show the impact of an additional macroprudential tool on the dynamics of the economy.


2015 ◽  
Vol 36 (5) ◽  
pp. 650-667 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Baah-Boateng

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to establish the concept of unemployment defined by the International Labour Organisation appears to be too narrow within the context of many African countries including Ghana. This phenomenon tends to put many jobless adults into the discouraged worker category thereby giving a misleading picture about the unemployment situation in these countries. In addition, the structure of the labour market in many African countries is such that informality takes the face of unemployment. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses a scatter plot and simple correlation analysis to show a trade-off between informality or vulnerability of employment and unemployment rates in Africa. The paper also adopts descriptive approach based on simple diagrams to show the extent of discouraged worker effect on the phenomenon of unemployment. Findings – The paper finds a significantly negative correlation between unemployment and informality in Africa. Beside the high level of informality that hides the face of unemployment, the exclusion of many discouraged workers in estimating unemployment underrates the seriousness of the phenomenon. The paper therefore recommends the adoption of a broader definition of unemployment that accounts for discourage workers and underemployment to show the true picture of labour market challenge in Africa. Additionally, targeted programmes to support and transform the informal sector is required to make it a more attractive means of employment rather than being seen as a refuge point for the unemployed in Africa. Originality/value – The observation that unemployment should be looked at from a broader perspective that accounts for discourage workers to inform policy design forms a base of the paper’s contribution to the body of literature. In addition, the high level of informality that hides the problem of unemployment shows that labour market challenges should not be restricted to unemployment but low quality of employment that characterises informality as well.


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