scholarly journals Nuclear Deterrence in the Algorithmic Age: Game Theory Revisited

Author(s):  
Roy Lindelauf

AbstractCommonly used game and decision theoretic models fail to explain the empirics of deterrence. This has unjustly led many theorists to criticize the (rationality and other) assumptions underpinning of such models. No serious game theorist will contend that his theoretic model will possibly take account of all the peculiarities involved in decision making and therefore be an accurate model of such situations. Games are an aid to thinking about some of the aspects of the broader situation. Game theory models prescribe what a decision maker ought to do in a given situation, not what a decision maker actually does. To maintain nuclear strategic stability, it is of paramount importance to understand the dynamical interplay between all players involved in decision making processes with regard to nuclear strategy. History has shown some progress in understanding nuclear deterrence by the use of initial game- and decision theoretic models to alleviate the burden of human cognitive biases. Since it is highly likely that (semi-)autonomous systems will in some way participate in the future nuclear strategic landscape, combined with the fact that the nuclear deterrent decision-cycle will also be based on algorithmic analysis, rational deterrence theory is and should be an integral element of strategic thinking about nuclear deterrence. That, or it might as well be game over.

2006 ◽  
Vol 130 (5) ◽  
pp. 613-616 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roger E. McLendon

Abstract Context.—A significant difficulty that pathologists encounter in arriving at a correct diagnosis is related to the way information from various sources is processed and assimilated in context. Objective.—These issues are addressed by the science of cognitive psychology. Although cognitive biases are the focus of a number of studies on medical decision making, few if any focus on the visual sciences. Data Sources.—A recent publication authored by Richards Heuer, Jr, The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, directly addresses many of the cognitive biases faced by neuropathologists and anatomic pathologists in general. These biases include visual anticipation, first impression, and established mindsets and subconsciously influence our critical decision-making processes. Conclusions.—The book points out that while biases are an inherent property of cognition, the influence of such biases can be recognized and the effects blunted.


Author(s):  
Bhagawati Prasad Joshi ◽  
Abhay Kumar

The fusion of multidimensional intuitionistic fuzzy information plays an important part in decision making processes under an intuitionistic fuzzy environment. In this chapter, it is observed that existing intuitionistic fuzzy Einstein hybrid aggregation operators do not follow the idempotency and boundedness. This leads to sometimes illogical and even absurd results to the decision maker. Hence, some new intuitionistic fuzzy Einstein hybrid aggregation operators such as the new intuitionistic fuzzy Einstein hybrid weighted averaging (IFEHWA) and the new intuitionistic fuzzy Einstein hybrid weighted geometric (IFEHWG) were developed. The new IFEHWA and IFEHWG operators can weigh the arguments as well as their ordered positions the same as the intuitionistic fuzzy Einstein hybrid aggregation operators do. Further, it is validated that the defined operators are idempotent, bounded, monotonic and commutative. Then, based on the developed approach, a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) procedure is given. Finally, a numerical example is conducted to demonstrate the proposed method effectively.


2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 130-141
Author(s):  
Karen E Smith

Abstract Foreign policy analysis (FPA) opens the “black box” of the state and provides explanations of how and why foreign policy decisions are made, which puts individuals and groups (from committees to ministries) at the center of analysis. Yet the sex of the decision-maker and the gendered nature of the decision-making process have generally been left out of the picture. FPA has not addressed questions regarding the influence of women in foreign policy decision-making processes or the effects of gender norms on decision-making; indeed, FPA appears to be almost entirely gender-free. This article argues that “gendering” FPA is long overdue and that incorporating gender into FPA frameworks can provide a richer and more nuanced picture of foreign policy–making.


2009 ◽  
Vol 05 (02) ◽  
pp. 407-420 ◽  
Author(s):  
MICHELE FEDRIZZI ◽  
MATTEO BRUNELLI

In decision-making processes, it often occurs that the decision maker is asked to pairwise compare alternatives. His/her judgements over a set of pairs of alternatives can be collected into a matrix and some relevant properties, for instance, consistency, can be estimated. Consistency is a desirable property which implies that all the pairwise comparisons respect a principle of transitivity. So far, many indices have been proposed to estimate consistency. Nevertheless, in this paper we argue that most of these indices do not fairly evaluate this property. Then, we introduce a new consistency evaluation method and we propose to use it in group decision making problems in order to fairly weigh the decision maker's preferences according to their consistency. In our analysis, we consider two families of pairwise comparison matrices: additively reciprocal pairwise comparison matrices and multiplicatively reciprocal pairwise comparison matrices.


Author(s):  
Seth Lloyd

Before Alan Turing made his crucial contributions to the theory of computation, he studied the question of whether quantum mechanics could throw light on the nature of free will. This paper investigates the roles of quantum mechanics and computation in free will. Although quantum mechanics implies that events are intrinsically unpredictable, the ‘pure stochasticity’ of quantum mechanics adds randomness only to decision-making processes, not freedom. By contrast, the theory of computation implies that, even when our decisions arise from a completely deterministic decision-making process, the outcomes of that process can be intrinsically unpredictable, even to—especially to—ourselves. I argue that this intrinsic computational unpredictability of the decision-making process is what gives rise to our impression that we possess free will. Finally, I propose a ‘Turing test’ for free will: a decision-maker who passes this test will tend to believe that he, she, or it possesses free will, whether the world is deterministic or not.


2000 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 237-246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paulius Gaučas ◽  
Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas

The task of decision-making in constructing industry becomes more difficult because of rapid technical upgrowth. According to aims, circumstances and opportunity decisions are determined. Disagreement situation arises at this point. Uprising opportunities and influence of circumstances of aims, they are often contradicting each other. Constructing a building, one must look for decision of more favourable conditions for situation and minimum expenditure, but to guarantee a high reliability, so disagreement situation arises. Exacting requirements of quality logically are bound up with expensive realisation [4]. Decision must be optimum and as much as possible satisfy “goodness” indications of decision. However, “goodness” valuation is indefinite conception and disobeys black-and-white logic [Zadeh]. In this case one can understand decision like a conflict in the game theory, where the information is not always defined. To solve the problem the fuzzy sets theory can be used. Using the game theory, elements can be formulated indefinitely and a new model can be made [3]. Trying to estimate the aims of conflicts, the circumstances that influence the decision are divided into two groups. The first group—circumstances of inherent influence—defines what a decision-maker must attain (for example, to maximise quality) and describes strategy of the first player. The second group—circumstances of outward influence—defines what a decision-maker must estimate as a limitation (for example, to minimise price) and describes strategy of the second player. Dependence between inherent and outward circumstances in this step is formed. There is no clear limit in fuzzy sets theory between dependence (circumstance 1) and independence (circumstance 0) of elements on definite set. Dependence degree of element x on A set, is described by μ A (x) function (1), (2). The valuation in fuzzy sets theory takes place at three levels. At the first level meanings of dependence on inherent circumstances are calculated (1), (2), and matrix is determined (Fig 2). According to formula (3), dependence degree on each alternative is calculated. In the second level meanings of dependence on outward circumstances are calculated according to the formula (1), (2) and the matrix is filled in (Fig 3). At the third level the results of first two levels are summed. Using operator of minimum general matrix of decisions-making is determined (Fig 4), According to the general matrix, the indefinite matrix of decision-making is determined (Fig 5). Minimax principle makes the decision. The received result is optimal, because it satisfies the aim causing the conflict. In the paper, the example of a private house is selected, using the described method. This method may be used to make decisions, when the task is of conflicting character. Competently distributing circumstances of influence or parameters of valuation by two aspects (inherent and outward) it can be explained the mean of conflicting character, and interpretation using the described method can be made.


Author(s):  
Eva Thelisson

The research problem being investigated in this article is how to develop governance mechanisms and collective decision-making processes at a global level for Artificial Intelligence systems (AI) and Autonomous systems (AS), which would enhance confidence in AI and AS.


2016 ◽  
pp. 441-454
Author(s):  
Mahmoud Eid

The media's dual role during times of terrorism can be as useful as the most effective security and political counterterrorism measures and can be as harmful as exacerbating terrorist events to the worst humanitarian disasters. Media decision-making processes, therefore, are integral to achieving more desired outcomes. This chapter questions the effectiveness of media performance during times of terrorism through the examination of their decision-making processes in terms of rationality and responsibility. The numerous media decisions that are usually made under severe stress during times of terrorism require adherence to both ethical standards and rational thinking. Strategic and goal-directed decision-making that is based on rational choice approach and game theory can help enhance the quality of media decisions. Ethical and socially responsible media performance is fundamental for effective communication. Interweaved, responsible and rational media decision-making are integral to the effectiveness of media decision-making during times of terrorism towards achieving more desired outcomes.


Author(s):  
Mahmoud Eid

The media's dual role during times of terrorism can be as useful as the most effective security and political counterterrorism measures and can be as harmful as exacerbating terrorist events to the worst humanitarian disasters. Media decision-making processes, therefore, are integral to achieving more desired outcomes. This chapter questions the effectiveness of media performance during times of terrorism through the examination of their decision-making processes in terms of rationality and responsibility. The numerous media decisions that are usually made under severe stress during times of terrorism require adherence to both ethical standards and rational thinking. Strategic and goal-directed decision-making that is based on rational choice approach and game theory can help enhance the quality of media decisions. Ethical and socially responsible media performance is fundamental for effective communication. Interweaved, responsible and rational media decision-making are integral to the effectiveness of media decision-making during times of terrorism towards achieving more desired outcomes.


Author(s):  
Sandrine Prom Tep ◽  
Maya Cachecho ◽  
Évelyne Jean-Bouchard

In recent years, firms that rely on fintech to develop and deliver financial products and services have become increasingly important in the banking and financial sector. Nevertheless, fintech products raise various ethical and legal issues, particularly relating to consumer rights. These issues can be analyzed in the light of behavioral law and economics which suggest that prevalent cognitive biases systematically affect the judgment of individuals. To mitigate this bounded rationality, it is possible to guide the decision-making processes through the use of nudges and configured sets of choices. A good example is fintech gamification, defined as the use of game-related mechanisms in other areas, particularly websites or social networks. However, the use of nudges for commercial purposes is often associated with some form of manipulative tactics explicitly aimed at exploiting individuals' biases without their consent. In this context, recourse to the law is useful as it provides for the minimum requirements needed to regulate the relationship between a firm and its customers.


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