Challenges in Nuclear Posture and Deterrence from Pakistan’s Perspective

India and Pakistan are engaged in a nuclear arms competition with new technologies and systems that have a direct bearing on their respective doctrines and nuclear postures. The statements by senior Indian leadership over the past few years throw into question the viability of India’s no-first-use posture and have placed further stress on the deterrence relationship between these two regional adversaries. India’s efforts to explore space for a limited war in a nuclearised environment have encouraged Pakistan to introduce remedial measures in the form of short-range ballistic missiles. These are part of its full spectrum deterrence, which aims to deter an entire spectrum of conventional and nuclear threats. India’s work to operationalise its second-strike capability, acquisition of ballistic missile defences and development of hypersonic weapons could undermine regional strategic stability. These efforts require countermeasures on the part of Pakistan to ensure deterrence stability between the two nuclear armed neighbours.

Challenges in Nuclear Posture and Deterrence from India’s Perspective

South Asia comprises eight countries, among which India and Pakistan are two nuclear weapon powers marked by strained relations. Within this dynamic, this essay examines India’s nuclear path, in spite of its staunch support for a nuclear-weapon-free world. It covers Pakistan’s nuclear journey through proliferation and the logic for it to perpetrate state-sponsored terrorism against India, arguing that this serves as a major factor that could lead to war. Despite this potential, it also explains why South Asia is not the most dangerous nuclear flashpoint in the world. In addition to India and Pakistan, five other nuclear nations are present in the region, namely China, Russia, Israel, North Korea and the United States. As such, this essay discusses positive and negative effects of each of these powers on nuclear dynamics of the region. It concludes with recommendations for fostering strategic stability in South Asia.

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence Technologies on International Relations

The automation of human activity has been growing every year for the past ten years thanks to AI algorithms, increasing the amount of big data and computing power. Today, artificial intelligence technologies are used in everyday life, automating processes previously performed by humans. Moreover, it is believed that these technologies can reach human cognitive abilities and even surpass them at some point. In this regard, questions arise what the future of humanity will look like in conjunction with AI technologies. If earlier, most of the research was more technical, then in the last three to four years, there has been much scientific research in terms of disciplines in which the influence of artificial intelligence is possible. International relations are no exception. The purpose of the article is to review publications on how artificial intelligence technologies affect international relations? Within the framework of the article, six books and eight articles were considered. The author concludes that AI technologies seriously impact international relations in socio-economic and political terms. The socio-economic aspect includes the consequences of automated capitalism on world politics, the rise in unemployment, the emergence of a "hopeless" class, the polarization of society, and more. AI technologies influences strategic stability, nuclear deterrence, and cyber warfare.

United States - China Relations: Prospects during Xi - Biden Tenure

Bilateral relations between China and the United States have become strategic in nature with implications to the rest of the world. Both have been engaging and competing on a number of issues in the recent times. While both seek security and stability so as to pursue their respective national interests, they differ on the way they pursue these. While engagement has been the dominant theme in the previous administrations, since late Trump, bilateral relations exhibited tensions on a number of issues including what China considered to be its core interests. Chinas agenda of keeping a low profile has been changed to accomplish something and it intends to occupy the centre stage in the long-term. The election of Joseph Biden as the President of the US coincided with the ongoing reassessments on the bilateral relations as well as coming to the fore of tensions on a number of fronts with China. The spread of COVID-19 pandemic, decline in global growth rates, disruptions in supply chains, and the growing uncertainty have only further exacerbated the US - China relations. Below is a review of the bilateral relations in the recent times by eliciting cooperative and competitive trends between China and the US. It is argued that the US - China relations are undergoing major shifts due to the tensions even as both are for ushering in strategic stability. Chinas perceptions at the leadership level, media and academic levels are outlined in brief to suggest that relations with the US are exhibiting tensions on a number of issues that pose challenges and opportunities for other countries.

Strategic Dynamics of Crisis Stability in South Asia

In contrast to the pervasive confidence that the development of nuclear weapons ensures peace and stability by making wars too expensive to fight for, South Asian strategic stability has drifted into nasty security competition through arms race with an episodical crisis that continues at the sub-conventional level. Deterrence studies that were relegated to the bins of history soon after the end of the Cold War received a renewed interest of scholars on the subject since the demonstration of deterrent capabilities by South Asian rivals in 1998. A new wave of deterrence studies has developed in the current multipolar world with some scholars adopting Cold War models of analysis in the contemporary realms of South Asia, whereas other are attempting new analytical approaches. This article aims to offer a fresh look at how to provide a clear concept of strategic stability, how strategic stability is applicable in contemporary South Asia and what the recent crisis between India and Pakistan being interwoven with terrorism tells us about crisis stability between the two countries under the shadows of nuclear weapons.

RUSSIAN ELECTRONIC WARFARE CAPABILITIES AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR EUROPEAN STRATEGIC STABILITY: A CASE STUDY OF THE SYRIAN CONFLICT

The Russian intervention in Syria, as well as the associated deployment of electronic warfare systems, generated alarm among NATO members linked to the possibility that a strengthening of electronic warfare capabilities by Russia could reduce the current technological asymmetry in favor of NATO. Such reduction would come from the use of electronic warfare systems to hamper the command and control capacity of attack and defense systems. This paper analyses the Russian intervention in Syria in order to define whether it can be understood that there is an increasing risk to Euro-Atlantic security stemming from Russian advances in electronic warfare.

Strategic stability at 30+ years: stasis, evolution, or degradation?

“Strategic stability” as a characteristic of military and political relations with a low possibility of large-scale armed confl ict between great powers remains one of the basic notions of international security, especially in its nuclear missile dimension. At the same time, this notion also sets forth tangible state of strategic forces of two (or potentially more) nations and the framework of risk reduction and arms control measures preventing a nuclear war. The purpose of this study is to identify the main trends in this area and how strategic stability can be maintained and enhanced. To this end, I review the main offi cial doctrinal documents and statements in this area, international arms control treaties, trends in the development of the armed forces, and academic and expert publications. It is concluded that strategic stability can be preserved under increasing infl uence of a growing number of new factors, both political (including degradation of arms control regimes) and technological. Among the latter are modernization and development of means for delivery of nuclear warheads, growth of long-range precision-guided non-nuclear weapons potential, increase of antagonism in new environments. The experts point out the need for active work of the academic community and diplomats to fi nd new solutions ensuring maintenance of strategic stability in the future. Negative scenarios are outlined in the absence of such solutions.