Predicting Landslide Dam Outburst Flood Peak Discharge

2021 ◽  
pp. 119-132
Author(s):  
David C. Froehlich
Keyword(s):  
Landslide Dam ◽  
Peak Discharge ◽  
Outburst Flood ◽  
Flood Peak

scholarly journals Estimates of Peak Discharge from the Drainage of Ice-Dammed Ape Lake, British Columbia, Canada

1989 ◽  
Vol 35 (121) ◽  
pp. 349-354 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph R. Desloges ◽  
David P. Jones ◽  
Karl E. Ricker
Keyword(s):  
British Columbia ◽  
Flood Plain ◽  
Peak Discharge ◽  
Outburst Flood ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
Lake Volume ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Direct Measurements ◽  
Instantaneous Discharge ◽  
Method Yield

AbstractThe first known occurrence of outburst flooding at Ape Lake, British Columbia, was in October 1984 following the formation of a subglacial tunnel in an ice dam created by Fyles Glacier. Following tunnel closure, the lake refilled in 150 d and then a second outburst flood occurred in August 1986. During both events, 55% of the Apc Lake volume or 46 × 106m3was released in less than 24 h into the 50 km long, ungauged Noeick River, producing an average discharge of 540 m3s−1. Channel and flood-plain erosion, damage to access roads, bridges, a logging camp, and an airstrip were related to the peak or maximum instantaneous discharge. In the absence of direct measurements, and to facilitate planning for future flood events, several independent methods were employed to estimate peak discharge. A modified version of the Clague-Mathews formula and the slope-area method yield consistent estimates which approach 1600 m3s−1near the ice-dam outlet. Attenuation of the flood peak in Noeick River is as high as 25% in the upper 12 km due to channel and flood-plain storage. Results using Clarke’s (1982) physical-based model suggest lower discharges and may be related to the irregular morphology of Ape Lake. Since Fyles Glacier is in continuous retreat, drainage around the margin of the ice dam which began in the summer of 1987 is expected to continue and no further outburst floods are anticipated.

scholarly journals Experimental Investigation of the Outburst Discharge of Landslide Dam Overtopping Failure

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mingjun Zhou ◽  
Zhenming Shi ◽  
Gordon G. D. Zhou ◽  
Kahlil Fredrick E. Cui ◽  
Ming Peng
Keyword(s):  
Landslide Dam ◽  
Longitudinal Direction ◽  
Peak Discharge ◽  
Outburst Flood ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Flume Tests ◽  
Loose Deposits ◽  
Overtopping Failure ◽  
Solids Content ◽  
Inflow Discharge

Research on the factors and mechanisms that influence outburst floods are essential for estimating outflow hydrographs and the resulting inundation. In this study, large flume tests are conducted to investigate the effects of the upstream inflow and the presence of loose erodible deposits on the breaching flow and the subsequent outburst floods. Experimental results reveal that hydrographs of the breaching flow and outburst flood can be divided into three stages where each stage is separated by inflection points and peak discharges. It is found that the larger the inflow discharge, the larger the peak discharge of the outburst flood and the shorter the time needed to reach the peak and inflection discharges of the outburst flood. The breaching flow decreases along the longitudinal direction at rates that increase with the inflow discharge. The ratio between the length of the upstream dam shoulder and the dam width is inversely related to the ratio of the outburst discharge to inflow discharge. We also show that the presence of loose deposits at the dam toe can amplify the peak discharge of outburst flood by increasing the solids content of the water flow.

scholarly journals Modeling Flood Peak Discharge Caused by Overtopping Failure of a Landslide Dam

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 921
Author(s):  
Hechun Ruan ◽  
Huayong Chen ◽  
Tao Wang ◽  
Jiangang Chen ◽  
Huibin Li
Keyword(s):  
Landslide Dam ◽  
Calculation Model ◽  
Peak Discharge ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Dam Failure ◽  
Jinsha River ◽  
Simulation Accuracy ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
Overtopping Failure ◽  
Dam Overtopping

Overtopping failure often occurs in landslide dams, resulting in the formation of strong destructive floods. As an important hydraulic parameter to describe floods, the peak discharge often determines the downstream disaster degree. Based on 67 groups of landslide dam overtopping failure cases all over the world, this paper constructs the calculation model for peak discharge of landslide dam failure. The model considers the influence of dam erodibility, breach shape, dam shape and reservoir capacity on the peak discharge. Finally, the model is compared with the existing models. The results show that the new model has a higher accuracy than the existing models and the simulation accuracy of the two outburst peak discharges of Baige dammed lake in Jinsha River (10 October 2018 and 3 November 2018) is higher (the relative error is 0.73% and 6.68%, respectively), because the model in this study considers more parameters (the breach shape, the landslide dam erodibility) than the existing models. The research results can provide an important reference for formulating accurate and effective disaster prevention and mitigation measures for such disasters.

scholarly journals Estimates of Peak Discharge from the Drainage of Ice-Dammed Ape Lake, British Columbia, Canada

1989 ◽  
Vol 35 (121) ◽  
pp. 349-354 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph R. Desloges ◽  
David P. Jones ◽  
Karl E. Ricker
Keyword(s):  
British Columbia ◽  
Flood Plain ◽  
Peak Discharge ◽  
Outburst Flood ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
Lake Volume ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Direct Measurements ◽  
Instantaneous Discharge ◽  
Method Yield

AbstractThe first known occurrence of outburst flooding at Ape Lake, British Columbia, was in October 1984 following the formation of a subglacial tunnel in an ice dam created by Fyles Glacier. Following tunnel closure, the lake refilled in 150 d and then a second outburst flood occurred in August 1986. During both events, 55% of the Apc Lake volume or 46 × 106 m3 was released in less than 24 h into the 50 km long, ungauged Noeick River, producing an average discharge of 540 m3 s−1. Channel and flood-plain erosion, damage to access roads, bridges, a logging camp, and an airstrip were related to the peak or maximum instantaneous discharge. In the absence of direct measurements, and to facilitate planning for future flood events, several independent methods were employed to estimate peak discharge. A modified version of the Clague-Mathews formula and the slope-area method yield consistent estimates which approach 1600 m3 s−1 near the ice-dam outlet. Attenuation of the flood peak in Noeick River is as high as 25% in the upper 12 km due to channel and flood-plain storage. Results using Clarke’s (1982) physical-based model suggest lower discharges and may be related to the irregular morphology of Ape Lake. Since Fyles Glacier is in continuous retreat, drainage around the margin of the ice dam which began in the summer of 1987 is expected to continue and no further outburst floods are anticipated.

scholarly journals Unmanned Aerial Systems-Aided Post-Flood Peak Discharge Estimation in Ephemeral Streams

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (24) ◽  
pp. 4183
Author(s):  
Emmanouil Andreadakis ◽  
Michalis Diakakis ◽  
Emmanuel Vassilakis ◽  
Georgios Deligiannakis ◽  
Antonis Antoniadis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Flash Flood ◽  
Traditional Approach ◽  
Peak Discharge ◽  
Unmanned Aerial Systems ◽  
Monitoring Networks ◽  
Response Dynamics ◽  
Hydrologic Modelling ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
Field Evidence ◽  
Aerial Systems

The spatial and temporal scale of flash flood occurrence provides limited opportunities for observations and measurements using conventional monitoring networks, turning the focus to event-based, post-disaster studies. Post-flood surveys exploit field evidence to make indirect discharge estimations, aiming to improve our understanding of hydrological response dynamics under extreme meteorological forcing. However, discharge estimations are associated with demanding fieldwork aiming to record in small timeframes delicate data and data prone-to-be-lost and achieve the desired accuracy in measurements to minimize various uncertainties of the process. In this work, we explore the potential of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) technology, in combination with the Structure for Motion (SfM) and optical granulometry techniques in peak discharge estimations. We compare the results of the UAS-aided discharge estimations to estimates derived from differential Global Navigation Satellite System (d-GNSS) surveys and hydrologic modelling. The application in the catchment of the Soures torrent in Greece, after a catastrophic flood, shows that the UAS-aided method determined peak discharge with accuracy, providing very similar values compared to the ones estimated by the established traditional approach. The technique proved to be particularly effective, providing flexibility in terms of resources and timing, although there are certain limitations to its applicability, related mostly to the optical granulometry as well as the condition of the channel. The application highlighted important advantages and certain weaknesses of these emerging tools in indirect discharge estimations, which we discuss in detail.

scholarly journals Reservoir Effects on Flood Peak Discharge at the Catchment Scale

2018 ◽  
Vol 54 (11) ◽  
pp. 9623-9636 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Volpi ◽  
M. Di Lazzaro ◽  
M. Bertola ◽  
A. Viglione ◽  
A. Fiori
Keyword(s):  
Peak Discharge ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
Flood Peak

scholarly journals Benefits and limitations of data assimilation for discharge forecasting using an event-based rainfall–runoff model

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 583-596 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Coustau ◽  
S. Ricci ◽  
V. Borrell-Estupina ◽  
C. Bouvier ◽  
O. Thual
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Peak Discharge ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
Southern France ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
Event Based ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Mediterranean catchments in southern France are threatened by potentially devastating fast floods which are difficult to anticipate. In order to improve the skill of rainfall-runoff models in predicting such flash floods, hydrologists use data assimilation techniques to provide real-time updates of the model using observational data. This approach seeks to reduce the uncertainties present in different components of the hydrological model (forcing, parameters or state variables) in order to minimize the error in simulated discharges. This article presents a data assimilation procedure, the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE), used with the goal of improving the peak discharge predictions generated by an event-based hydrological model Soil Conservation Service lag and route (SCS-LR). For a given prediction date, selected model inputs are corrected by assimilating discharge data observed at the basin outlet. This study is conducted on the Lez Mediterranean basin in southern France. The key objectives of this article are (i) to select the parameter(s) which allow for the most efficient and reliable correction of the simulated discharges, (ii) to demonstrate the impact of the correction of the initial condition upon simulated discharges, and (iii) to identify and understand conditions in which this technique fails to improve the forecast skill. The correction of the initial moisture deficit of the soil reservoir proves to be the most efficient control parameter for adjusting the peak discharge. Using data assimilation, this correction leads to an average of 12% improvement in the flood peak magnitude forecast in 75% of cases. The investigation of the other 25% of cases points out a number of precautions for the appropriate use of this data assimilation procedure.

scholarly journals The 2020 glacial lake outburst flood at Jinwuco, Tibet: causes, impacts, and implications for hazard and risk assessment

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guoxiong Zheng ◽  
Martin Mergili ◽  
Adam Emmer ◽  
Simon Allen ◽  
Anming Bao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Lag ◽  
Peak Discharge ◽  
Glacial Lake ◽  
Lateral Moraine ◽  
Process Chain ◽  
Outburst Flood ◽  
Impact Wave ◽  
Debris Landslide ◽  
Property Losses ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Flood

Abstract. We analyze and reconstruct a recent Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) process chain on 26 June 2020, involving the moraine-dammed proglacial lake Jinwuco (30.356° N, 93.631° E) in eastern Nyainqentanglha, Tibet, China. Satellite images reveal that from 1965 to 2020, the surface area of Jinwuco has expanded by 0.2 km2 (+56 %) to 0.56 km2, and subsequently decreased to 0.26 km2 (‒54 %) after the GLOF. Estimates based on topographic reconstruction and sets of published empirical relationships indicate that the GLOF had a volume of 10 million m3, an average breach time of 0.62 hours, and an average peak discharge of 5,390 m3/s at the dam. Based on pre- and post-event high-resolution satellite scenes, we identified a large progressive debris landslide originating from western lateral moraine, having occurred 5–17 days before the GLOF. This landslide was most likely triggered by extremely heavy, south Asian monsoon-associated rainfall in June. The time lag between the landslide and the GLOF suggests that pre-weakening of the dam due to landslide-induced outflow pushed the system towards a tipping point, that was finally exceeded following subsequent rainfall, snowmelt, a secondary landslide, or calving of ice into the lake. We back-calculate part of the GLOF process chain, using the GIS-based open source numerical simulation tool r.avaflow. Two scenarios are considered, assuming a debris landslide-induced impact wave with overtopping and resulting retrogressive erosion of the moraine dam (Scenario A), and retrogressive erosion due to pre-weakening of the dam without a major impact wave (Scenario B). Both scenarios yield plausible results which are in line with empirically derived ranges of peak discharge and breach time. The breaching process is characterized by a slower onset and a resulting delay in Scenario B, compared to Scenario A. Evidence, however, points towards Scenario B as a more realistic possibility. There were no casualties from this GLOF but it caused severe destruction of infrastructure (e.g. roads and bridges) and property losses in downstream areas. Given the clear role of continued glacial retreat in destabilizing the adjacent lateral moraine slopes, and directly enabling the landslide to deposit into the expanding lake body, the GLOF process chain under Scenario B can be robustly attributable to anthropogenic climate change, while downstream consequences have been enhanced by the development of infrastructure on exposed flood plains. Such process chains could become more frequent under a warmer and wetter future climate, calling for comprehensive and forward-looking risk reduction planning.

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