scholarly journals Past trends in obesity-attributable mortality in eight European countries: an application of age–period–cohort analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 63 (6) ◽  
pp. 683-692 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikoletta Vidra ◽  
Maarten J. Bijlsma ◽  
Sergi Trias-Llimós ◽  
Fanny Janssen
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Attributable Mortality

scholarly journals Smoking and Inequalities in Mortality in 11 European Countries: A Birth Cohort Analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Di Long ◽  
Wilma Nusselder ◽  
Pekke Martikainen ◽  
Olle Lundberg ◽  
Henrik Brønnum-Hansen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Total Mortality ◽  
Lung Cancer Mortality ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Attributable Mortality ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Low Educated ◽  
Rate Ratios ◽  
Inequalities In Mortality

Abstract Purpose: To study the trends of smoking-attributable mortality among the low- and high-educated in consecutive birth cohorts in 11 European countries. Methods: Register-based mortality data were collected among adults aged 30 to 79 years in 11 European countries between 1971 and 2012. Smoking-attributable deaths were estimated indirectly from lung cancer mortality rates using the Preston-Glei-Wilmoth method. Rate ratios and rate differences among the low and high-educated were estimated and used to estimate the contribution of inequality in smoking-attributable mortality to inequality in total mortality.Results: In most countries, smoking-attributable mortality decreased in consecutive birth cohorts born between 1906 and 1961 among low and high-educated men and high-educated women, but not among low-educated women among whom it increased. Relative educational inequalities in smoking-attributable mortality increased among both men and women with no signs of turning points. Absolute inequalities were stable among men but slightly increased among women. The contribution of inequality in smoking-attributable mortality to inequality in total mortality decreased in consecutive generations among men but increased among women. Conclusions: Generations born during the twentieth century are at different stages of the smoking epidemic. Smoking might become less important as a driver of inequalities in total mortality among men in the future. However, among women, smoking threatens to further widen inequalities in total mortality.

scholarly journals Smoking and inequalities in mortality in 11 European countries: a birth cohort analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Di Long ◽  
Johan Mackenbach ◽  
Pekka Martikainen ◽  
Olle Lundberg ◽  
Henrik Brønnum-Hansen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Total Mortality ◽  
Lung Cancer Mortality ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Attributable Mortality ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Low Educated ◽  
Rate Ratios ◽  
Inequalities In Mortality

Abstract Purpose: To study the trends of smoking-attributable mortality among the low- and high-educated in consecutive birth cohorts in 11 European countries. Methods: Register-based mortality data were collected among adults aged 30 to 79 years in 11 European countries between 1971 and 2012. Smoking-attributable deaths were estimated indirectly from lung cancer mortality rates using the Preston-Glei-Wilmoth method. Rate ratios and rate differences among the low and high-educated were estimated and used to estimate the contribution of inequality in smoking-attributable mortality to inequality in total mortality.Results: In most countries, smoking-attributable mortality decreased in consecutive birth cohorts born between 1906 and 1961 among low and high-educated men and high-educated women, but not among low-educated women among whom it increased. Relative educational inequalities in smoking-attributable mortality increased among both men and women with no signs of turning points. Absolute inequalities were stable among men but slightly increased among women. The contribution of inequality in smoking-attributable mortality to inequality in total mortality decreased in consecutive generations among men but increased among women. Conclusions: Smoking might become less important as a driver of inequalities in total mortality among men in the future. However, among women, smoking threatens to further widen inequalities in total mortality.

scholarly journals Smoking and inequalities in mortality in 11 European countries: a birth cohort analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Di Long ◽  
Johan Mackenbach ◽  
Pekka Martikainen ◽  
Olle Lundberg ◽  
Henrik Brønnum-Hansen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Total Mortality ◽  
Lung Cancer Mortality ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Attributable Mortality ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Low Educated ◽  
Rate Ratios ◽  
Inequalities In Mortality

Abstract Purpose To study the trends of smoking-attributable mortality among the low and high educated in consecutive birth cohorts in 11 European countries. Methods Register-based mortality data were collected among adults aged 30 to 79 years in 11 European countries between 1971 and 2012. Smoking-attributable deaths were estimated indirectly from lung cancer mortality rates using the Preston-Glei-Wilmoth method. Rate ratios and rate differences among the low and high-educated were estimated and used to estimate the contribution of inequality in smoking-attributable mortality to inequality in total mortality. Results In most countries, smoking-attributable mortality decreased in consecutive birth cohorts born between 1906 and 1961 among low- and high-educated men and high-educated women, but not among low-educated women among whom it increased. Relative educational inequalities in smoking-attributable mortality increased among both men and women with no signs of turning points. Absolute inequalities were stable among men but slightly increased among women. The contribution of inequality in smoking-attributable mortality to inequality in total mortality decreased in consecutive generations among men but increased among women. Conclusions Smoking might become less important as a driver of inequalities in total mortality among men in the future. However, among women, smoking threatens to further widen inequalities in total mortality.

scholarly journals Trends in prevalence and mortality burden attributable to smoking, Brazil and federated units, 1990 and 2017

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (S1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Deborah Carvalho Malta ◽  
Luisa Sorio Flor ◽  
Ísis Eloah Machado ◽  
Mariana Santos Felisbino-Mendes ◽  
Luisa Campos Caldeira Brant ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Smoking Prevalence ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Gaussian Process Regression ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Attributable Mortality ◽  
Regulatory Measures ◽  
Disease Study

Abstract Background The present study sought to analyze smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality estimates produced by the 2017 Global Burden of Disease Study for Brazil, 26 states, and the Federal District. Methods Prevalence of current smokers from 1990 to 2017 by sex and age was estimated using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Population-attributable fractions were calculated for different risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality. A cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort was performed to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. Smoking-attributable mortality rates were described and analyzed by development at state levels, using the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Finally, a decomposition analysis was conducted to evaluate the contribution of different factors to the changes in the number of deaths attributable to smoking between 1990 and 2017. Results Between 1990 and 2017, prevalence of smoking in the population (≥ 20 years old) decreased from 35.3 to 11.3% in Brazil. This downward trend was seen for both sexes and in all states, with a marked reduction in exposure to this risk factor in younger cohorts. Smoking-attributable mortality rates decreased by 57.8% (95% UI − 61.2, − 54.1) between 1990 and 2017. Overall, larger reductions were observed in states with higher SDI (Pearson correlation 0.637; p < 0.01). In Brazil, smoking remains responsible for a considerable amount of deaths, especially due to cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms. Conclusions Brazil has adopted a set of regulatory measures and implemented anti-tobacco policies that, along with improvements in socioeconomic conditions, have contributed to the results presented in the present study. Other regulatory measures need to be implemented to boost a reduction in smoking in order to reach the goals established in the scope of the 2030 United Nations Agenda for Sustainable Development.

scholarly journals Past and Future Alcohol-Attributable Mortality in Europe

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (23) ◽  
pp. 9024
Author(s):  
Fanny Janssen ◽  
Shady El Gewily ◽  
Anastasios Bardoutsos ◽  
Sergi Trias-Llimós
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Population Level ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Attributable Mortality ◽  
Public Health Issue ◽  
Public Health Action ◽  
Health Action ◽  
North Western ◽  
Careful Assessment

Although alcohol consumption is an important public health issue in Europe, estimates of future alcohol-attributable mortality for European countries are rare, and only apply to the short-term future. We project (age-specific) alcohol-attributable mortality up to 2060 in 26 European countries, after a careful assessment of past trends. For this purpose we used population-level country-, sex-, age- (20–84) and year-specific (1990–2016) alcohol-attributable mortality fractions (AAMF) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, which we adjusted at older ages. To these data we apply an advanced age-period-cohort projection methodology, that avoids unrealistic future differences and crossovers between sexes and countries. We project that in the future, AAMF levels will decline in all countries, and will converge across countries and sexes. For 2060, projected AAMF are, on average, 5.1% among men and 1.4% among women, whereas in 2016 these levels were 10.1% and 3.3%, respectively. For men, AAMF is projected to be higher in Eastern and South-western Europe than in North-western Europe. All in all, the share of mortality due to alcohol is projected to eventually decline in all 26 European countries. Achieving these projected declines will, however, require strong ongoing public health action, particularly for selected Eastern and North-western European countries.

scholarly journals Smoking epidemic in Europe in the 21st century

2020 ◽  
pp. tobaccocontrol-2020-055658 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fanny Janssen ◽  
Shady El Gewily ◽  
Anastasios Bardoutsos
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
Wave Pattern ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Attributable Mortality ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Eastern European Countries ◽  
Recent Cohort

ObjectiveTo estimate smoking-attributable mortality in the long-term future in 29 European countries using a novel data-driven forecasting approach that integrates the wave pattern of the smoking epidemic and the cohort dimension.MethodsWe estimated and forecasted age-specific and age-standardised smoking-attributable mortality fractions (SAMF) and 95% projection intervals for 29 European countries by sex, 1950–2100, using age-period-cohort modelling with a generalised logit link function. We projected the (decelerating) period increases (women) by a quadratic curve to obtain future declines, and extrapolated the past period decline (men). In addition, we extrapolated the recent cohort trend.ResultsSAMF among men are projected to decline from, on average, 25% in 2014 (11% (Sweden)—41% (Hungary)) to 11% in 2040 (range: 6.3%–15.4%), 7% in 2065 (range: 5.9%–9.4%) and 6% in 2100. SAMF among women in 21 non-Eastern European countries, currently at an average of 16%, are projected to reach peak levels in 2013 (Northern Europe), 2019 (Western Europe), 2027 (Greece, Italy) and 2022 (Central Europe), with maximum levels of, on average, 17% (8% (Greece)—28% (Denmark)), and to decline to 10% in 2040 (range: 4%–20%), 5% in 2065 (range: 3.5%–7.6%) and 4% in 2100. For women, a short-term shift in the peak of the inverse U-shaped age pattern to higher ages is projected, and crossovers between the age-specific trends.ConclusionOur novel forecasting method enabled realistic estimates of the mortality imprint of the smoking epidemic in Europe up to 2100. The high peak values in smoking-attributable mortality projected for women warrant attention.

scholarly journals Long term trends in inequalities in smoking-attributable mortality in 6 European countries

2015 ◽  
Vol 25 (suppl_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
G Gregoraci ◽  
FJ van Lenthe ◽  
F Peters ◽  
G Menvielle ◽  
P Martikainen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
European Countries ◽  
Attributable Mortality ◽  
Long Term Trends

scholarly journals Changing contribution of smoking to the sex differences in life expectancy in Europe, 1950–2014

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (9) ◽  
pp. 835-841
Author(s):  
Fanny Janssen
Keyword(s):  
Sex Differences ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Sex Difference ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Attributable Mortality ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
Related Part

Abstract This article provides a detailed and overarching illustration of the contribution of smoking to sex differences in life expectancy at birth (e0) in Europe, focusing on changes over time and differences between both European countries and European regions. For this purpose, the sex difference in e0 for 31 European countries over the 1950–2014 period was decomposed into a smoking- and a non-smoking-related part, using all-cause mortality data and indirectly estimated smoking-attributable mortality rates by age and sex, and a formal decomposition analysis. It was found that smoking-attributable mortality contributed, on average, 3 years (43.5%) to the 7-year life expectancy difference between women and men in 2014. This contribution, was largest in 1995, at 5.2 out of 9.0 years, and subsequently declined in parallel with the average sex difference in life expectancy. The average contribution of smoking-attributable mortality was especially large in North-Western Europe around 1975; in Southern Europe around 1985; and in Eastern Europe around 1990–1995, when smoking-attributable mortality reached maximum levels among men, but was still low among women. The observed parallel decline from 1995 onwards in the sex differences in e0 and the absolute contribution of smoking to this sex difference suggests that this recent decline in the sex difference in e0 can be almost fully explained by historical changes in sex differences in smoking, and, consequently, smoking-attributable mortality. In line with the progression of the smoking epidemic, the sex differences in life expectancy in Europe are expected to further decline in the future.

scholarly journals Is Europe becoming a `gerontocracy'? New evidence on age cleavages in Europe since the 1980s

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom O'Grady
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
European Countries ◽  
European Politics ◽  
New Parties ◽  
Ideological Differences ◽  
Growing Age ◽  
Near Future ◽  
New Evidence

This paper asks how strong the evidence is for a large and growing age cleavage in European politics, using new estimates of the ideological positions of different age groups in 27 European countries across four issue domains from 1981-2016, together with age-period-cohort analysis and an examination of voting patterns by age. The young turn out to be much more socially liberal than the old in most countries, but also more opposed to taxation and government spending. Age divides are generally no larger now than they were thirty years ago, are explained primarily by cohort replacement effects, and are likely to fall in the near future. Nonetheless, age divides in voting are large and in some places actually increasing. A likely explanation is that, although age-based ideological differences are not new, parties have increasingly emerged and polarised along the dimensions where the young and old have long differed from each other.

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