attributable mortality
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2022 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Checchi ◽  
Adrienne Testa ◽  
Amy Gimma ◽  
Emilie Koum-Besson ◽  
Abdihamid Warsame

Abstract Background Populations affected by crises (armed conflict, food insecurity, natural disasters) are poorly covered by demographic surveillance. As such, crisis-wide estimation of population mortality is extremely challenging, resulting in a lack of evidence to inform humanitarian response and conflict resolution. Methods We describe here a ‘small-area estimation’ method to circumvent these data gaps and quantify both total and excess (i.e. crisis-attributable) death rates and tolls, both overall and for granular geographic (e.g. district) and time (e.g. month) strata. The method is based on analysis of data previously collected by national and humanitarian actors, including ground survey observations of mortality, displacement-adjusted population denominators and datasets of variables that may predict the death rate. We describe the six sequential steps required for the method’s implementation and illustrate its recent application in Somalia, South Sudan and northeast Nigeria, based on a generic set of analysis scripts. Results Descriptive analysis of ground survey data reveals informative patterns, e.g. concerning the contribution of injuries to overall mortality, or household net migration. Despite some data sparsity, for each crisis that we have applied the method to thus far, available predictor data allow the specification of reasonably predictive mixed effects models of crude and under 5 years death rate, validated using cross-validation. Assumptions about values of the predictors in the absence of a crisis provide counterfactual and excess mortality estimates. Conclusions The method enables retrospective estimation of crisis-attributable mortality with considerable geographic and period stratification, and can therefore contribute to better understanding and historical memorialisation of the public health effects of crises. We discuss key limitations and areas for further development.


Author(s):  
Sandy Schlage ◽  
Thomas Lehrnbecher ◽  
Reinhard Berner ◽  
Arne Simon ◽  
Nicole Toepfner

AbstractThe outbreak of the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in December 2019 in Wuhan challenges pediatric oncologists in an unexpected way. We provide a comprehensive overview, which systematically summarizes and grades evidence (QoE) on SARS-CoV-2 infections in pediatric cancer patients at 1.5 years of pandemic. A systematic literature search in PubMed combined with an additional exploratory literature review in other international databases was conducted to identify studies on children (aged < 18 years) with a malignant disease and COVID-19 infections. In total, 45 reports on 1003 pediatric cancer patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections were identified out of 1397 reports analyzed. The clinical course of COVID-19 was reported mild or moderate in 358 patients (41.7%), whereas 11.1% of patients showed severe COVID-19. In 12.7% of patients, chemotherapy was postponed, whereas 19% of patients with different underlying malignancies received chemotherapy during SARS-CoV-2 infection. Twenty-five patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections died, potentially related to COVID-19.Conclusion: Despite a favorable COVID-19 outcome in most pediatric cancer patients, the morbidity is reported higher than in children without comorbidities. However, no severe COVID-19 complications were associated to the continuation of chemotherapy in some cohort studies and reports on two patients. Therefore, the risk of cancer progress or relapse due to interruption of chemotherapy has carefully to be weighed against the risk of severe COVID-19 disease with potentially fatal outcome. What is Known:• Most of pediatric patients with malignant diseases show an asymptomatic, mild or moderate clinical course of SARS-CoV-2 infection. • Current need for a basis for decision-making, whether to stop or interrupt cancer treatment in a patient infected with SARS-CoV-2, and when to continue chemotherapy. What is New:• Review results comprising over 1000 pediatric COVID-19 cancer patients confirm mild courses of SARS-CoV-2 infection in most patients but also show the attributable mortality is at least 10 times higher compared to reports on hospitalized children without comorbidities.• Review identifies that chemotherapy was continued despite SARS-CoV-2 positivity in 18% of patients with individual chemotherapy modification according to the clinical course of SARS-CoV-2 infection and existing comorbidities. On this basis, no severe COVID-19 complications were associated to the continuation of chemotherapy in several cohort studies and two case reports.


Author(s):  
Yi-Jia Jiang ◽  
Xiu-Ming Xi ◽  
Hui-Miao Jia ◽  
Xi Zheng ◽  
Mei-Ping Wang ◽  
...  

Abstract Purpose This study aimed to evaluate the attributable mortality of new-onset acute kidney injury (AKI). Methods The data in the present study were derived from a multi-center, prospective cohort study in China that was performed at 18 Chinese ICUs. A propensity-matched analysis was performed between matched patients with and without AKI selected from all eligible patients to estimate the attributable mortality of new-onset AKI. Results A total of 2872 critically ill adult patients were eligible. The incidence of new-onset AKI was 29.1% (n = 837). After propensity score matching, 788 patients with AKI were matched 1:1 with 788 controls (patients without AKI). Thirty-day mortality was significantly higher among the patients with AKI than among their matched controls (25.5% versus 17.4%, p < 0.001). Subgroup analysis in terms of AKI classification showed that there was no significant difference (p = 0.509) in 30-day mortality between patients with stage 1 AKI and their matched controls. The attributable mortality values of stage 2 and stage 3 AKI were 12.4% [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.6–21.8%, p = 0.013] and 16.1% (95% CI 8.2–23.8%, p < 0.001), respectively. The attributable mortality of persistent AKI was 15.7% (95% CI 8.8–22.4%, p = 0.001), while no observable difference in 30-day mortality was identified between transient AKI patients and their matched non-AKI controls (p = 0.229). Conclusion The absolute excess 30-day mortality that is statistically attributable to new-onset AKI is substantial (8.1%) among general ICU patients. However, neither stage 1 AKI nor transient AKI increases 30-day mortality.


2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. e2022009
Author(s):  
Federico Mercolini ◽  
Simone Cesaro

SARS-CoV-2 pandemic affected less children and adolescents, morbidity and mortality figures being inferior to that reported for adults. In this review we focused on the clinical course, risk factors for severe COVID-19, mortality, treatment options and prevention measures in the pediatric and adolescent setting with special attention to the pediatric oncohematological patients. In this subgroups of patients, SARS-CoV-2 infection was often asyntomatic but 47 to 68% of patients require hospitalization and 9-10% of those hospitalized needed intensive care with a COVID-19 attributable mortality of about 4%. The multisystem inflammatory syndrome associated to Coronavirus 2019 was less frequent than that reported in the non-oncohematological pediatric population. Noteworthy, the course of COVID-19 was more severe in low-middle income countries. The key measures to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection are the reduction of patients exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 and vaccination, now available fore care givers and parents and for patients and siblings > 12 years old. The treatment of COVID-19 in pediatric patients was mainly based on supportive care with dexamethasone and heparin prophylaxis for severely ill patients. Other measures, such as convalescent plasma, remdesivir and monoclonal antibodies have been used in limited case or within experimental protocols. Further studies are needed on the risk factors and outcome of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the pediatric immunocompromised patients. 


Author(s):  
Sofia Karagiannidou ◽  
Georgia Kourlaba ◽  
Theoklis Zaoutis ◽  
Nikolaos Maniadakis ◽  
Vassiliki Papaevangelou

AbstractCentral line-associated bloodstream infections (CLABSIs) are the most frequent pediatric hospital-acquired infections and significantly impact outcomes. The aim of this study was to estimate the attributable mortality for CLABSIs in pediatric and neonatal patients in Greece. A retrospective matched-cohort study was performed, in two tertiary pediatric hospitals. Inpatients with a central line in neonatal and pediatric intensive care units (NICUs and PICUs), hematology/oncology units, and a bone marrow transplantation unit between June 2012 and June 2015 were eligible. Patients with confirmed CLABSI were enrolled on the day of the event and were matched (1:1) to non-CLABSI patients by hospital, hospitalization unit, and length of stay prior to study enrollment (188 children enrolled, 94 CLABSIs). Attributable mortality was estimated. During the study period, 22 CLABSIs and nine non-CLABSIs died (23.4 vs. 9.6%, respectively, p = 0.011), leading to an attributable mortality of 13.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.4–24.3%). Children in PICUs were more likely to die, presenting an attributable mortality of 20.2% (95% CI = − 1.4–41.8%), without reaching, however, statistical significance. After multiple logistic regression, CLABSIs were four times more likely to die (odds ratio [OR] = 4.29, 95% CI = 1.28–14.36, p = 0.018). Survival analysis showed no difference in time to death after study enrollment between CLABSIs and non-CLABSIs (log-rank p = 0.137, overall median survival time = 7.8 months). Greek pediatric mortality rates are increased by the CLABSI occurrence, highlighting the importance of infection prevention strategies.


2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (51) ◽  
pp. e2107402118
Author(s):  
Ernani F. Choma ◽  
John S. Evans ◽  
José A. Gómez-Ibáñez ◽  
Qian Di ◽  
Joel D. Schwartz ◽  
...  

Decades of air pollution regulation have yielded enormous benefits in the United States, but vehicle emissions remain a climate and public health issue. Studies have quantified the vehicle-related fine particulate matter (PM2.5)-attributable mortality but lack the combination of proper counterfactual scenarios, latest epidemiological evidence, and detailed spatial resolution; all needed to assess the benefits of recent emission reductions. We use this combination to assess PM2.5-attributable health benefits and also assess the climate benefits of on-road emission reductions between 2008 and 2017. We estimate total benefits of $270 (190 to 480) billion in 2017. Vehicle-related PM2.5-attributable deaths decreased from 27,700 in 2008 to 19,800 in 2017; however, had per-mile emission factors remained at 2008 levels, 48,200 deaths would have occurred in 2017. The 74% increase from 27,700 to 48,200 PM2.5-attributable deaths with the same emission factors is due to lower baseline PM2.5 concentrations (+26%), more vehicle miles and fleet composition changes (+22%), higher baseline mortality (+13%), and interactions among these (+12%). Climate benefits were small (3 to 19% of the total). The percent reductions in emissions and PM2.5-attributable deaths were similar despite an opportunity to achieve disproportionately large health benefits by reducing high-impact emissions of passenger light-duty vehicles in urban areas. Increasingly large vehicles and an aging population, increasing mortality, suggest large health benefits in urban areas require more stringent policies. Local policies can be effective because high-impact primary PM2.5 and NH3 emissions disperse little outside metropolitan areas. Complementary national-level policies for NOx are merited because of its substantial impacts—with little spatial variability—and dispersion across states and metropolitan areas.


Author(s):  
Nicoletta Abram ◽  
Valentina Baretta ◽  
Federico Mercolini ◽  
Massimiliano De Bortoli ◽  
Matteo Chinello ◽  
...  

Abstract Objective Preparations with high-titer immunoglobulin-M (HT-IgM) have been used to treat neonatal and adult sepsis as adjuvant to antibiotics. Limited data are available of this use in pediatric oncohematological patients. We retrospectively assessed the characteristics and outcome of febrile episodes treated with broad-spectrum antibiotics and HT-IgM. Methods The study included febrile episodes diagnosed after chemotherapy or hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) treated with antibiotics and HT-IgM. Study period was from January 2011 to March 2019. Results Seventy febrile episodes in 63 patients were eligible. In 40% of episodes (n = 28), blood cultures identified a causative organism: Gram-negative (n = 15), Gram-positive (n = 8), polybacterial (n = 4), fungi (n = 1). Twenty-six percent of Gram-negatives were extend spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-producers. In 44% of episodes, a deep-organ localization was present, mostly pulmonary. Severe or profound neutropenia, hypotension, and hypoxemia were present in 89, 26, and 21% of episodes, respectively; 20% of episodes required intensive care and 20% of episodes required the use of inotropes. Overall, 90-day mortality was 13% and infection-attributable mortality resulted 8.6%. More than half of the patients received HT-IgM within 24 hours from fever onset. HT-IgM-related allergic reactions occurred in three episodes. Risk factors for 90-day mortality were as follows: hypotension and hypoxemia at fever presentation, admission to intensive care unit (ICU), use of inotropes, presence of deep-organ infection, and escalation of antibiotic therapy within 5 days. Conclusion The combination of broad-spectrum antibiotics and HT-IgM was feasible, tolerated, and promising, being associated with a limited infectious mortality. Further prospective controlled studies are needed to assess the efficacy of this combination over a standard antibiotic approach.


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Zhao ◽  
Lei-qing Li ◽  
Ning-xin Zhen ◽  
Lin-lin Du ◽  
Hui Shan ◽  
...  

Background: The attributable mortality and microbial etiology of stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP) vary among different studies and were inconsistent.Purpose: To determine the microbiology and outcomes of SAP in the lower respiratory tract (LRT) for patients with invasive mechanical ventilation (MV).Methods: In this observational study, included patients were divided into SAP and non-SAP based on a comprehensive analysis of symptom, imaging, and laboratory results. Baseline characteristics, clinical characteristics, microbiology, and outcomes were recorded and evaluated.Results: Of 200 patients, 42.5% developed SAP after the onset of stroke, and they had a lower proportion of non-smokers (p = 0.002), lower GCS score (p &lt; 0.001), higher serum CRP (p &lt; 0.001) at ICU admission, and a higher proportion of males (p &lt; 0.001) and hypertension (p = 0.039) than patients with non-SAP. Gram-negative aerobic bacilli were the predominant organisms isolated (78.8%), followed by Gram-positive aerobic cocci (29.4%). The main pathogens included K. pneumoniae, S. aureus, H. influenzae, A. baumannii, P. aeruginosa, E. aerogenes, Serratia marcescens, and Burkholderia cepacia. SAP prolonged length of MV (p &lt; 0.001), duration of ICU stay (p &lt; 0.001) and hospital stay (p = 0.027), shortened MV-free days by 28 (p &lt; 0.001), and caused elevated vasopressor application (p = 0.001) and 60-day mortality (p = 0.001). Logistic regression analysis suggested that patients with coma (p &lt; 0.001) have a higher risk of developing SAP.Conclusion: The microbiology of SAP is similar to early phase of HAP and VAP. SAP prolongs the duration of MV and length of ICU and hospital stays, but also markedly increases 60-day mortality.


BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. e053497
Author(s):  
Jakob Manthey ◽  
Domantas Jasilionis ◽  
Huan Jiang ◽  
Olga Meščeriakova-Veliulienė ◽  
Janina Petkevičienė ◽  
...  

IntroductionAlcohol use is a major risk factor for mortality. Previous studies suggest that the alcohol-attributable mortality burden is higher in lower socioeconomic strata. This project will test the hypothesis that the 2017 increase of alcohol excise taxes linked to lower all-cause mortality rates in previous analyses will reduce socioeconomic mortality inequalities.Methods and analysisData on all causes of deaths will be obtained from Statistics Lithuania. Record linkage will be implemented using personal identifiers combining data from (1) the 2011 whole-population census, (2) death records between 1 March 2011 (census date) and 31 December 2019, and (3) emigration records, for individuals aged 40–70 years. The analyses will be performed separately for all-cause and for alcohol-attributable deaths. Monthly age-standardised mortality rates will be calculated by sex, education and three measures of socioeconomic status (SES). Inequalities in mortality will be assessed using absolute and relative indicators between low and high SES groups. We will perform interrupted time series analyses, and test the impact of the 2017 rise in alcohol excise taxation using generalised additive mixed models. In these models, we will control for secular trends for economic development.Ethics and disseminationThis work is part of project grant 1R01AA028224-01 by the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism. It has been granted research ethics approval 050/2020 by Centre for Addiction and Mental Health Research Ethics Board on 17 April 2020, renewed on 30 March 2021. The time series of mortality inequalities as well as the statistical code will be made publicly available, allowing other researchers to adapt the proposed method to other jurisdictions.


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