scholarly journals Nonlinear models of the Phillips curve

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annalisa Cristini ◽  
Piero Ferri
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
General Model ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Nonlinear Models ◽  
Threshold Models ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
Supply Shocks ◽  
Nonlinear Nature

AbstractThe recent flattening of the Phillips curve has stimulated new empirical research and theoretical discussions regarding the nonlinear nature of the changes in the parameters. The objective of the present paper is twofold: to detect the relevant type of the implied nonlinearity and look for some general model capable of generating a Phillips curve mimicking the empirical one. We find evidence of a convex US price Phillips curve, from 1961 q1 to 2019 q4, assessed both by piecewise and threshold models. The result presents some degree of novelty regarding the role of supply shocks and model-specific convexities; in addition, it supports the use of a regime-switching macro system. The latter accomplishes three tasks. It can generate a Phillips curve resembling its empirical counterparts; it creates a medium-run endogenous cycle where unemployment is not a NAIRU; finally, it opens new perspectives on economic policy issues.

“There is such a situation that Comrade Svoboda is under pressure”. The Soviet leadership and the settlement of relations with Czechoslovakia. May 1969

2019 ◽  
pp. 512-519
Author(s):  
Teymur Dzhalilov ◽  
Nikita Pivovarov
Keyword(s):  
Central Committee ◽  
Secretary General ◽  
Political Agenda ◽  
The Political ◽  
Soviet Government ◽  
Soviet Leadership ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
The World ◽  
The Common

The published document is a part of the working record of The Secretariat of the CPSU Central Committee on May 5, 1969. The employees of The Common Department of the CPSU Central Committee started writing such working records from the end of 1965. In contrast to the protocols, the working notes include speeches of the secretaries of the Central Committee, that allow to deeper analyze the reactions of the top party leadership, to understand their position regarding the political agenda. The peculiarity of the published document is that the Secretariat of the Central Committee did not deal with the most important foreign policy issues. It was the responsibility of the Politburo. However, it was at a meeting of the Secretariat of the Central Committee when Brezhnev raised the question of inviting G. Husák to Moscow. The latter replaced A. Dubček as the first Secretary of the Communist party of Czechoslovakia in April 1969. As follows from the document, Leonid Brezhnev tried to solve this issue at a meeting of the Politburo, but failed. However, even at the Secretariat of the Central Committee the Leonid Brezhnev’s initiative at the invitation of G. Husák was not supported. The published document reveals to us not only new facets in the mechanisms of decision-making in the CPSU Central Committee, the role of the Secretary General in this process, but also reflects the acute discussions within the Soviet government about the future of the world socialist systems.

scholarly journals Revealing the role of excited state proton transfer (ESPT) in excited state hydrogen transfer (ESHT): systematic study in phenol–(NH3)n clusters

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christophe Jouvet ◽  
Mitsuhiko Miyazaki ◽  
Masaaki Fujii
Keyword(s):  
Excited State ◽  
Proton Transfer ◽  
Systematic Study ◽  
General Model ◽  
Hydrogen Transfer ◽  
Excited State Proton Transfer

A general model of excited state hydrogen transfer (ESHT) which unifies ESHT and the excited state proton transfer (ESPT) is presented from experimental and theoretical works on phenol–(NH3)n. The hidden role of ESPT is revealed.

Ties that Bind?

1998 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
WILL H. MOORE ◽  
DAVID R. DAVIS
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
General Model ◽  
International Conflict ◽  
Conflict Behavior ◽  
Structural Constraints ◽  
Structural Factors ◽  
International Interactions ◽  
The Impact

In this article, the authors develop and empirically evaluate a general model of the linkages between domestic and international conflict behavior. Much of the literature on domestic international interactions has focused on the structural constraints of the international and domestic systems on leaders' foreign policy decisions. Rather than focusing on structural constraints, the present authors model the influence of the behavior of domestic and international rivals on leader decision making. The impact of rivals' behavior on conflict across the domestic-international nexus has been neglected relative to the role of structural factors. This study helps redress that imbalance. The authors test their model with a statistical analysis of Zaire during the period 1975 to 1992 and find substantial support for the model.

The influence of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk on US citizens overseas air passenger travel by regional destination

2020 ◽  
pp. 135481662098119
Author(s):  
James E Payne ◽  
Nicholas Apergis
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Error Variance ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Air Travel ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Passenger Travel ◽  
Forecast Error Variance

This research note extends the literature on the role of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk on US citizens overseas air travel through the examination of the forecast error variance decomposition of total overseas air travel and by regional destination. Our empirical findings indicate that across regional destinations, US economic policy uncertainty explains more of the forecast error variance of US overseas air travel, followed by geopolitical risk with global economic policy uncertainty explaining a much smaller percentage of the forecast error variance.

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