The impact of ENSO and the NAO on extreme winter precipitation in North America in observations and regional climate models

As consequence of global warming extreme weather events might become more frequent and severe across the globe. The evaluation of the impact of climate change on extremes is then a crucial issue for the resilience of infrastructures and buildings and is a key challenge for adaptation planning. In this paper, a suitable procedure for the estimation of future trends of climatic actions is presented starting from the output of regional climate models and taking into account the uncertainty in the model itself. In particular, the influence of climate change on ground snow loads is discussed in detail and the typical uncertainty range is determined applying an innovative algorithm for weather generation. Considering different greenhouse gasses emission scenarios, some results are presented for the Italian Mediterranean region proving the ability of the method to define factors of change for climate extremes also allowing a sound estimate of the uncertainty range associated with different models.

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The Mesoscale Response to Global Warming over the Pacific Northwest Evaluated Using a Regional Climate Model Ensemble

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-21-0061.1 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-56

Keyword(s):

Global Warming ◽

Pacific Northwest ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Wrf Model ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Winter Precipitation ◽

Historical Period ◽

Continental Interior

This paper describes the downscaling of an ensemble of twelve GCMs using the WRF model at 12-km grid spacing over the period 1970-2099, examining the mesoscale impacts of global warming as well as the uncertainties in its mesoscale expression. The RCP 8.5 emissions scenario was used to drive both global and regional climate models. The regional climate modeling system reduced bias and improved realism for a historical period, in contrast to substantial errors for the GCM simulations driven by lack of resolution. The regional climate ensemble indicated several mesoscale responses to global warming that were not apparent in the global model simulations, such as enhanced continental interior warming during both winter and summer as well as increasing winter precipitation trends over the windward slopes of regional terrain, with declining trends to the lee of major barriers. During summer there is general drying, except to the east of the Cascades. April 1 snowpack declines are large over the lower to middle slopes of regional terrain, with small snowpack increases over the lower elevations of the interior. Snow-albedo feedbacks are very different between GCM and RCM projections, with the GCM’s producing large, unphysical areas of snowpack loss and enhanced warming. Daily average winds change little under global warming, but maximum easterly winds decline modestly, driven by a preferential sea level pressure decline over the continental interior. Although temperatures warm continuously over the domain after approximately 2010, with slight acceleration over time, occurrences of temperature extremes increase rapidly during the second half of the 21st century.

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Changes in extreme surface solar radiation in EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Models

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16536 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Blanka Bartok

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Power Generation ◽

Solar Radiation ◽

Solar Energy ◽

Electricity Generation ◽

Climate Models ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Surface Solar Radiation ◽

The Impact

As solar energy share is showing a significant growth in the European electricity generation system, assessments regarding long-term variation of this variable related to climate change are becoming more and more relevant for this sector. Several studies analysed the impact of climate change on the solar energy sector in Europe (Jerez et al, 2015) finding light impact (-14%; +2%) in terms of mean surface solar radiation. The present study focuses on extreme values, namely on the distribution of low surface solar radiation (overcast situation) and high surface solar radiation (clear sky situation), since the frequencies of these situations have high impact on electricity generation.The study considers 11 high-resolution (0.11 deg) bias-corrected climate projections from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble with 5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) downscaled by 6 Regional Climate Models (RCMs).Changes in extreme surface solar radiation frequencies show different regional patterns over Europe.The study also includes a case study determining the changes in solar power generation induced by the extreme situations.&#160;&#160;Jerez et al (2015): The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe, Nature Communications 6(1):10014, 10.1038/ncomms10014&#160;

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The impact of RCM formulation and resolution on simulated precipitation in Africa

10.5194/esd-2019-55 ◽

2019 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Minchao Wu ◽

Grigory Nikulin ◽

Erik Kjellström ◽

Danijel Belušić ◽

Colin Jones ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Models ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Horizontal Resolution ◽

Added Value ◽

Primary Control ◽

Model Formulation ◽

Simulated Precipitation ◽

Mean Climate ◽

The Impact

Abstract. We investigate the impact of model formulation and horizontal resolution on the ability of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to simulate precipitation in Africa. Two RCMs – SMHI-RCA4 and HCLIM38-ALADIN are utilized for downscaling the ERA-Interim reanalysis over Africa at four different resolutions: 25, 50, 100 and 200 km. Additionally to the two RCMs, two different configurations of the same RCA4 are used. Contrasting different RCMs, configurations and resolutions it is found that model formulation has the primary control over many aspects of the precipitation climatology in Africa. Patterns of spatial biases in seasonal mean precipitation are mostly defined by model formulation while the magnitude of the biases is controlled by resolution. In a similar way, the phase of the diurnal cycle is completely controlled by model formulation (convection scheme) while its amplitude is a function of resolution. Although higher resolution in many cases leads to smaller biases in the time mean climate, the impact of higher resolution is mixed. An improvement in one region/season (e.g. reduction of dry biases) often corresponds to a deterioration in another region/season (e.g. amplification of wet biases). The experiments confirm a pronounced and well known impact of higher resolution – a more realistic distribution of daily precipitation. Even if the time-mean climate is not always greatly sensitive to resolution, what the time-mean climate is made up of, higher order statistics, is sensitive. Therefore, the realism of the simulated precipitation increases as resolution increases. Our results show that improvements in the ability of RCMs to simulate precipitation in Africa compared to their driving reanalysis in many cases are simply related to model formulation and not necessarily to higher resolution. Such model formulation related improvements are strongly model dependent and in general cannot be considered as an added value of downscaling.

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Using Regional Climate Models to Quantify the Impact of Climate Change on Lakes

The Impact of Climate Change on European Lakes ◽

10.1007/978-90-481-2945-4_2 ◽

2009 ◽

pp. 15-32 ◽

Cited By ~ 22

Author(s):

Patrick Samuelsson

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact

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The Impact of Climate Change on Material Degradation Criteria in Heritage over Iran: Regional Climate Model Evaluation

E3S Web of Conferences ◽

10.1051/e3sconf/202017202006 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 172 ◽

pp. 02006

Author(s):

Hamed Hedayatnia ◽

Marijke Steeman ◽

Nathan Van Den Bossche

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Salt Crystallization ◽

Climate Modelling ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Effects ◽

The Impact

Understanding how climate change accelerates or slows down the process of material deterioration is the first step towards assessing adaptive approaches for the preservation of historical heritage. Analysis of the climate change effects on the degradation risk assessment parameters like salt crystallization cycles is of crucial importance when considering mitigating actions. Due to the vulnerability of cultural heritage in Iran to climate change, the impact of this phenomenon on basic parameters plus variables more critical to building damage like salt crystallization index needs to be analyzed. Regional climate modelling projections can be used to asses the impact of climate change effects on heritage. The output of two different regional climate models, the ALARO-0 model (Ghent University-RMI, Belgium) and the REMO model (HZG-GERICS, Germany), is analyzed to find out which model is more adapted to the region. So the focus of this research is mainly on the evaluation to determine the reliability of both models over the region. For model validation, a comparison between model data and observations was performed in 4 different climate zones for 30 years to find out how reliable these models are in the field of building pathology.

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Chilling accumulation in fruit trees in Spain under climate change

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-19-1087-2019 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 19 (5) ◽

pp. 1087-1103 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Alfredo Rodríguez ◽

David Pérez-López ◽

Enrique Sánchez ◽

Ana Centeno ◽

Iñigo Gómara ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Fruit Trees ◽

Calculation Model ◽

Cold Temperatures ◽

Tree Crops ◽

Chilling Requirements ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Growing trees are quite vulnerable to cold temperatures. To minimise the effect of these cold temperatures, they stop their growth over the coldest months of the year, a state called dormancy. In particular, endodormancy requires accumulating chilling temperatures to finish this sort of dormancy. The accumulation of cool temperatures according to specific rules is called chilling accumulation, and each tree species and variety has specific chilling requirements for correct plant development. Under global warming, it is expected that the fulfilment of the chilling requirements to break dormancy in fruit trees could be compromised. In this study, the impact of climate change on the chilling accumulation over peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands was assessed. For this purpose, bias-adjusted results of 10 regional climate models (RCMs) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 were used as inputs of four different models for calculating chilling accumulation, and the results for each model were individually compared for the 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 future periods under both RCPs. These results project a generalised reduction in chilling accumulation regardless of the RCP, future period or chilling calculation model used, with higher reductions for the 2071–2100 period and the RCP8.5 scenario. The projected winter chill decrease may threaten the viability of some tree crops and varieties in some areas where the crop is currently grown, but also shows scope for varieties with lower chilling requirements. The results are relevant for planning future tree plantations under climate change, supporting adaptation of spatial distribution of tree crops and varieties in Spain.

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Evaluation of Precipitation Indices over North America from Various Configurations of Regional Climate Models

ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN ◽

10.1080/07055900.2016.1185005 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 54 (4) ◽

pp. 418-439 ◽

Cited By ~ 20

Author(s):

Emilia Paula Diaconescu ◽

Philippe Gachon ◽

René Laprise ◽

John F. Scinocca

Keyword(s):

North America ◽

Climate Models ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Precipitation Indices

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The impact of deforestation on the hydrological cycle in the western Mediterranean: an ensemble study with two regional climate models

Climate Dynamics ◽

10.1007/s003820100151 ◽

2001 ◽

Vol 17 (11) ◽

pp. 857-873 ◽

Cited By ~ 20

Author(s):

M. A. Gaertner ◽

O. B. Christensen ◽

J. A. Prego ◽

J. Polcher ◽

C. Gallardo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Models ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Western Mediterranean ◽

The Impact

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Improving runoff estimates from regional climate models: a performance analysis in Spain

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/hessd-9-175-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

pp. 175-214

Author(s):

D. González-Zeas ◽

L. Garrote ◽

A. Iglesias ◽

A. Sordo-Ward

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Large Scale ◽

Climate Models ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Hydrologic Model ◽

Direct Runoff ◽

Interpolation Methods ◽

Basin Scale ◽

The Impact

Abstract. An important aspect to assess the impact of climate change on water availability is to have monthly time series representative of the current situation. In this context, a simple methodology is presented for application in large-scale studies in regions where a properly calibrated hydrologic model is not available, using the output variables simulated by regional climate models (RCMs) of the European project PRUDENCE under current climate conditions (period 1961–1990). The methodology compares different interpolation methods and alternatives to generate annual times series that minimize the bias with respect to observed values. The objective is to identify the best alternative to obtain bias-corrected, monthly runoff time series from the output of RCM simulations. This study uses information from 338 basins in Spain that cover the entire mainland territory and whose observed values of naturalised runoff have been estimated by the distributed hydrological model SIMPA. Four interpolation methods for downscaling runoff to the basin scale from 10 RCMs are compared with emphasis on the ability of each method to reproduce the observed behavior of this variable. The alternatives consider the use of the direct runoff of the RCMs and the mean annual runoff calculated using five functional forms of the aridity index, defined as the ratio between potential evaporation and precipitation. In addition, the comparison with respect to the global runoff reference of the UNH/GRDC dataset is evaluated, as a contrast of the "best estimator" of current runoff on a large scale. Results show that the bias is minimised using the direct original interpolation method and the best alternative for bias correction of the monthly direct runoff time series of RCMs is the UNH/GRDC dataset, although the formula proposed by Schreiber also gives good results.

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