Systematic investigation of skill opportunities in decadal prediction of air temperature over Europe

AbstractIn this paper, we investigate the influence of the winter NAO on the multidecadal variability of winter East Asian surface air temperature (EASAT) and EASAT decadal prediction. The observational analysis shows that the winter EASAT and East Asian minimum SAT (EAmSAT) display strong in-phase fluctuations and a significant 60–80-year multidecadal variability, apart from a long-term warming trend. The winter EASAT experienced a decreasing trend in the last two decades, which is consistent with the occurrence of extremely cold events in East Asia winters in recent years. The winter NAO leads the detrended winter EASAT by 12–18 years with the greatest significant positive correlation at the lead time of 15 years. Further analysis shows that ENSO may affect winter EASAT interannual variability, but does not affect the robust lead relationship between the winter NAO and EASAT. We present the coupled oceanic-atmospheric bridge (COAB) mechanism of the NAO influences on winter EASAT multidecadal variability through its accumulated delayed effect of ∼15 years on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Africa-Asia multidecadal teleconnection (AAMT) pattern. An NAO-based linear model for predicting winter decadal EASAT is constructed on the principle of the COAB mechanism, with good hindcast performance. The winter EASAT for 2020–34 is predicted to keep on fluctuating downward until ∼2025, implying a high probability of occurrence of extremely cold events in coming winters in East Asia, followed by a sudden turn towards sharp warming. The predicted 2020/21 winter EASAT is almost the same as the 2019/20 winter.

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Decadal prediction skill for spring and summer surface air-temperature over India and its association with SST patterns in CFSv2 and CNRM coupled models

Journal of Earth System Science ◽

10.1007/s12040-021-01563-9 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 130 (1) ◽

Author(s):

S Swetha ◽

Jasti S Chowdary ◽

Anant Parekh ◽

C Gnanaseelan

Keyword(s):

Air Temperature ◽

Surface Air Temperature ◽

Prediction Skill ◽

Decadal Prediction ◽

Coupled Models

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Joint statistical-dynamical approach to decadal prediction of East Asian surface air temperature

Science China Earth Sciences ◽

10.1007/s11430-014-4984-3 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 57 (12) ◽

pp. 3062-3072 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

FeiFei Luo ◽

ShuangLin Li

Keyword(s):

Air Temperature ◽

East Asian ◽

Surface Air Temperature ◽

Decadal Prediction ◽

Dynamical Approach

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Systematic investigation of skill opportunities in decadal prediction of air temperature over Europe

10.21203/rs.3.rs-544705/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Giovanni Sgubin ◽

Didier Swingedouw ◽

Leonard F. Borchert ◽

Matthew B. Menary ◽

Thomas Noël ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Air Temperature ◽

Time Windows ◽

Systematic Investigation ◽

Added Value ◽

Prediction Skill ◽

Adaptation To Climate Change ◽

Calendar Time ◽

Systematic Analysis ◽

Near Term ◽

The 1960S

Abstract Decadal Climate Predictions (DCP) have gained considerable attention for their potential utility in promoting optimised plans of adaptation to climate change and variability. Their effective applicability to a targeted problem is nevertheless conditional on a detailed evaluation of their ability to simulate the near-term climate evolution under specific conditions. Here we explore the performance of the IPSL-CM5A-LR DCP system in predicting air temperature over Europe, by proposing a systematic assessessment of the prediction skill for different time windows (periods of the calendar time, forecast years and months/seasons). In this framework, we also compare raw and de-biased hindcasts, in which the temperature outputs have been corrected using a quantile matching method. The systematic analysis allows to discern certain conditions conferring larger predictability, which we find to be intermittent in time. The predictions appear more skilful around the 1960s and after the 1980s, in coincidence with large shifts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, which are well reproduced in the hindcasts. Averages on longer forecast periods also generally imply better prediction skill, while the best predicted months appear to be mainly those between late spring and early autumn. Moreover, we find an overall added value due to initialisation, while de-biased predictions significantly outperform raw predictions only for a few specific time windows. Finally, we discuss the potential implications of the proposed systematic exploration of skill opportunities in DCPs for integrated applications in climate sensitive sectors.

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Grain Refinement in Titanium-Erbium Alloys

Proceedings, annual meeting, Electron Microscopy Society of America ◽

10.1017/s0424820100052626 ◽

1974 ◽

Vol 32 ◽

pp. 522-523

Author(s):

B. B. Rath ◽

J. E. O'Neal ◽

R. J. Lederich

Keyword(s):

Electron Microscopy ◽

Size Distribution ◽

Grain Refinement ◽

Grain Growth ◽

Volume Fraction ◽

Pure Titanium ◽

Systematic Investigation ◽

Second Phase ◽

Titanium Matrix ◽

Average Size

Addition of small amounts of erbium has a profound effect on recrystallization and grain growth in titanium. Erbium, because of its negligible solubility in titanium, precipitates in the titanium matrix as a finely dispersed second phase. The presence of this phase, depending on its average size, distribution, and volume fraction in titanium, strongly inhibits the migration of grain boundaries during recrystallization and grain growth, and thus produces ultimate grains of sub-micrometer dimensions. A systematic investigation has been conducted to study the isothermal grain growth in electrolytically pure titanium and titanium-erbium alloys (Er concentration ranging from 0-0.3 at.%) over the temperature range of 450 to 850°C by electron microscopy.

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Optical Properties of HVEM Accelerators

Proceedings, annual meeting, Electron Microscopy Society of America ◽

10.1017/s0424820100114529 ◽

1975 ◽

Vol 33 ◽

pp. 180-181

Author(s):

A. Strojnik ◽

J.W. Scholl ◽

V. Bevc

Keyword(s):

Optical Properties ◽

Electron Accelerator ◽

Systematic Investigation ◽

Electron Source ◽

High Brightness ◽

The Past ◽

Wide Range ◽

Optical Behavior

The electron accelerator, as inserted between the electron source (injector) and the imaging column of the HVEM, is usually a strong lens and should be optimized in order to ensure high brightness over a wide range of accelerating voltages and illuminating conditions. This is especially true in the case of the STEM where the brightness directly determines the highest resolution attainable. In the past, the optical behavior of accelerators was usually determined for a particular configuration. During the development of the accelerator for the Arizona 1 MEV STEM, systematic investigation was made of the major optical properties for a variety of electrode configurations, number of stages N, accelerating voltages, 1 and 10 MEV, and a range of injection voltages ϕ0 = 1, 3, 10, 30, 100, 300 kV).

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Magnitude Estimation and Cross-Modal Matching of Lingual Vibrotactile and Auditory Sensation

Journal of Speech Language and Hearing Research ◽

10.1044/jshr.3203.698 ◽

1989 ◽

Vol 32 (3) ◽

pp. 698-702 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Daniel Harris ◽

Donald Fucci ◽

Linda Petrosino

Keyword(s):

Auditory Stimulus ◽

Magnitude Estimation ◽

Sensory Processing ◽

Test Site ◽

Systematic Investigation ◽

Thenar Eminence ◽

Stimulus Range ◽

Psychophysical Scaling ◽

Scaling Methods ◽

Response Biases

The present experiment was a preliminary attempt to use the psychophysical scaling methods of magnitude estimation and cross-modal matching to investigate suprathreshold judgments of lingual vibrotactile and auditory sensation magnitudes for 20 normal young adult subjects. A 250-Hz lingual vibrotactile stimulus and a 1000-Hz binaural auditory stimulus were employed. To obtain judgments for nonoral vibrotactile sensory magnitudes, the thenar eminence of the hand was also employed as a test site for 5 additional subjects. Eight stimulus intensities were presented during all experimental tasks. The results showed that the slopes of the log-log vibrotactile magnitude estimation functions decreased at higher stimulus intensity levels for both test sites. Auditory magnitude estimation functions were relatively constant throughout the stimulus range. Cross-modal matching functions for the two stimuli generally agreed with functions predicted from the magnitude estimation data, except when subjects adjusted vibration on the tongue to match auditory stimulus intensities. The results suggested that the methods of magnitude estimation and cross-modal matching may be useful for studying sensory processing in the speech production system. However, systematic investigation of response biases associated with vibrotactile-auditory psychophysical scaling tasks appears to be a prerequisite.

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