A new approach to correct the overestimated persistence in tree-ring width based precipitation reconstructions

AbstractTree-ring width is one of the most widely used proxy in paleoclimatological studies. Due to various environmental and biological processes, however, the associated reconstructions often suffer from overestimated low-frequency variability. In this study, a new correction approach is proposed using fractional integral techniques that corrects for the overestimated long-term persistence in tree-ring width based hydroclimatic reconstructions. Assuming the high frequency interannual climate variability is well recorded by tree rings, the new approach is able to (i) extract the associated short-term forcing signals of various climate conditions from the reconstructions, and (ii) simulate the long-term impacts of these short-term forcings by setting a proper fractional integral order in the fractional integral statistical model (FISM). In this way, the overestimated long-term persistence, as well as the associated low-frequency variability in tree-ring width based reconstructions can be corrected. We apply this approach to a recently published dataset of precipitation field reconstructions over China covering the past half millennium and removed the redundant, non-precipitation related long-term persistence. Compared to the original reconstruction with multi-century long-term dry conditions in western China, the corrected reconstruction considerably shortened the wet/dry periods to decadal scales. In view of the widespread non-climatic/mixed-climatic signals in tree-ring widths, this new approach may serve as a useful post-processing method to reconsider previous reconstructions. It may even be combined with the current detrending approaches by upgrading the pre-whitening methods.

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Episodic and Systematic Tree Ring-Width Variation (AD 1763–2013) in the Takhini Valley, Southwest Yukon, Canada

ARCTIC ◽

10.14430/arctic4685 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 70 (4) ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Wayne L Strong

Keyword(s):

Tree Ring ◽

Polynomial Regression ◽

Ring Width ◽

Steady Increase ◽

Tree Ring Width ◽

Moisture Index ◽

Local Climate ◽

Ring Analysis ◽

Environmental Events

A tree-ring analysis of 764 western white spruce (Picea albertiana) in the Takhini Valley of southwest Yukon was conducted to assess short- and long-term variation in growth and local climate. The resulting chronology spanned the period from AD 1763 to 2013. A polynomial regression (R = 0.720, p < 0.001) indicated that the pre-1840 segment of the chronology had below-normal tree ring-width index (RWI) values (average 0.64, with modest variation), but the subsequent segment had greater variation and a steady increase in RWI values (average 0.89) until ~1920. After 1930, RWI values began to increase again (average 1.06) with 51% more variation than had previously occurred. Peak RWI values after 1930 were double those of the early 1800s. RWI values were uncorrelated with air temperature variables (except September minima), but weakly and positively correlated (r < 0.35) with precipitation variables. RWI values were moderately correlated with annual heat-moisture index values (r = −0.415, p < 0.001), although more strongly with RWI values less than 1.1 (R = −0.631, p < 0.001). Therefore, the RWI chronology was interpreted from an ecological moisture-balance perspective, with possible long-term temperature changes estimated from archival sources. The latter suggested a 2.1˚ – 3.1˚C rise since the early 1800s. Extreme RWI values and portions of the chronology were associated with known environmental events.

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A Method for Reconstructing the Past Soil Temperature Based on Tree-Ring Widths

Forest Science ◽

10.1093/forsci/fxaa001 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 66 (4) ◽

pp. 393-402

Author(s):

Shuai Yuan ◽

Yonghong Zheng ◽

Yongdong Qi ◽

Fanxi Kong ◽

Dan Wang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Soil Temperature ◽

Tree Ring ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Ring Width ◽

Reconstruction Method ◽

Dabie Mountains ◽

Tree Ring Width ◽

Soil Temperatures ◽

High Elevations

Abstract Soil temperature can affect tree growth and is one of the most important types of basic data for forest cultivation and management. To obtain a long-term time series of soil temperatures, we explored the utility of dendroclimatology in a subtropical area of China. In this study, the relations between tree-ring-width chronologies and climate factors were explored by correlation analysis. The results indicated that the limiting climatic factors for the radial growth of Huangshan pine were elevation-specific. Further investigation found that chronology at high elevations was significantly correlated with soil temperature. Then, we described a reconstruction of the soil temperatures of the Dabie Mountains area using the tree-ring width chronology from 1869 to 2015 and showed that the reconstruction explained 42.9 percent of the instrumental soil temperature variation in the common years. We found that the 1970s and 2000s were the coldest and warmest decades since 1884, respectively. The results of the reconstruction method for describing past soil temperatures can provide a reference for other subtropical forests. Furthermore, the results of our research also have a certain significance for guiding policymaking related to forest cultivation and management.

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Temperature variability of the Iberian Range since 1602 inferred from tree-ring records

10.5194/cp-2016-9 ◽

2016 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

E. Tejedor ◽

M. A. Saz ◽

J. M. Cuadrat ◽

J. Esper ◽

M. de Luis

Keyword(s):

Tree Ring ◽

Full Range ◽

Ring Width ◽

Low Frequency ◽

Basal Area ◽

Volcanic Eruptions ◽

Temperature Variability ◽

Iberian Range ◽

Cambial Age ◽

Low Frequency Variability

Abstract. Tree-rings are an important proxy to understand the natural drivers of climate variability in the Mediterranean basin and hence to improve future climate scenarios in a vulnerable region. Here, we compile 316 tree-ring width series from 11 conifer sites in the western Iberian Range. We apply a new standardization method based on the trunk basal area instead of the tree cambial age to develop a regional chronology which preserves high to low frequency variability. A new reconstruction for the 1602–2012 period correlates at −0.78 with observational September temperatures with a cumulative mean of the 21 previous months over the 1945–2012 calibration period. The new IR2Tmax reconstruction is spatially representative for the Iberian Peninsula and captures the full range of past Iberian Range temperature variability. Reconstructed long-term temperature variations match reasonably well with solar irradiance changes since warm and cold phases correspond with high and low solar activity, respectively. In addition, some annual temperatures downturns coincide with volcanic eruptions with a three year lag.

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Development of a Larix principis-rupprechtii tree-ring width chronology and its climatic signals for the southern Greater Higgnan Mountains

Geochronometria ◽

10.1515/geochr-2015-0082 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 45 (1) ◽

pp. 1-9 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Tongwen Zhang ◽

Shulong Yu ◽

Yujiang Yuan ◽

Liping Huang ◽

Shengxia Jiang

Keyword(s):

Tree Ring ◽

Ring Width ◽

Low Frequency ◽

Northern China ◽

Severity Index ◽

Drought Severity ◽

Mountainous Area ◽

Tree Ring Width ◽

Large Area ◽

Climatic Signals

Abstract Forty-one living larch (Larix principis-rupprechtii) trees collected from two sampling sites in 1310–1530 m a.s.l. in the southern Greater Higgnan Mountains in the northeastern China are used to develop a regional tree-ring width chronology. The credible chronology spans 185 years from 1830 to 2014. The results of correlation analyses indicate that moisture is the main climatic factor controlling radial growth of larch trees in this mountainous area. Spatial correlation proves that the regional tree-ring width chronology contains climatic signals representative for a large area including the eastern Mongolian Plateau and Nuluerhu Mountains. A comparison between the newly developed chronology and a May–July Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) reconstruction for the Ortindag Sand Land reveals similar variations, particularly in the low-frequency domain. The tree-ring records also capture a severe and sustained drying trend recorded in the 1920s across a wide area of northern China.

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Retrospective Analysis of Tree Decline Based on Intrinsic Water-Use Efficiency in Semi-Arid Areas of North China

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos11060577 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (6) ◽

pp. 577

Author(s):

Weiwei Lu ◽

Xinxiao Yu ◽

Guodong Jia

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Tree Ring ◽

Tree Growth ◽

North China ◽

Isotope Composition ◽

Ring Width ◽

Carbon Isotope Composition ◽

Tree Decline ◽

Tree Ring Width

Long-term tree growth is significantly affected by climate change, which have become a global concern. Tree-ring width and isotopic information can show how trees respond to climate change on a long-term scale and reveal some phenomena of tree decline or death. In this study, we used isotopic techniques and investigated annual changes in carbon isotope composition and tree-ring width of Populus simonii Carr. in Zhangbei, as well as trends in tree-ring carbon discrimination (Δ13C) and iWUE in normal, mildly declining and severely declining trees, in order to make a retrospective analysis and further understand the process of tree decline. We found that there were significant differences (p < 0.01 **) in δ13C, Δ13C, ci and iWUE at different decline stages, meaning that the δ13C and iWUE could be new indicators of tree health. The iWUE of all groups increased significantly, while the growth rate of declined P. simonii was much higher than that of normal growth P. simonii. According to the analysis, there may be a threshold of iWUE for healthy trees, which once the threshold value is exceeded, it indicates that trees are resistant to adversity and their growth is under stress. Similarly, the changing trend of BAI supports our conclusion with its changes showed that tree growth became slower and slower as degradation progressed. iWUE inferred from tree-ring stable carbon isotope composition is a strong modulator of adaptation capacity in response to environmental stressors under climate change. Elevated annual temperatures and increased groundwater depth are all contributing to the decline of P. simonii in north China.

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Drought-Affected Populus simonii Carr. Show Lower Growth and Long-Term Increases in Intrinsic Water-Use Efficiency Prior to Tree Mortality

Forests ◽

10.3390/f9090564 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 9 (9) ◽

pp. 564 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Shoujia Sun ◽

Lanfen Qiu ◽

Chunxia He ◽

Chunyou Li ◽

Jinsong Zhang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Water Use ◽

Tree Ring ◽

Ring Width ◽

Tree Ring Width ◽

Lower Growth ◽

Populus Simonii ◽

Dead Trees ◽

Intrinsic Water Use Efficiency ◽

Use Efficiency

The Three-North Shelter Forest (TNSF) is a critical ecological barrier against sandstorms in northern China, but has shown extensive decline and death in Populus simonii Carr. in the last decade. We investigated the characteristics—tree-ring width, basal area increment (BAI), carbon isotope signature (13Ccor), and intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE)—of now-dead, dieback, and non-dieback trees in TNSF shelterbelts of Zhangbei County. Results from the three groups were compared to understand the long-term process of preceding drought-induced death and to identify potential early-warning proxies of drought-triggered damage. The diameter at breast height (DBH) was found to decrease with the severity of dieback, showing an inverse relationship. In all three groups, both tree-ring width and BAI showed quadratic relationships with age, and peaks earlier in the now-dead and dieback groups than in the non-dieback group. The tree-ring width and BAI became significantly lower in the now-dead and dieback groups than in the non-dieback group from 17 to 26 years before death, thus, these parameters can serve as early-warning signals for future drought-induced death. The now-dead and dieback groups had significantly higher δ13Ccor and iWUEs than the non-dieback group at 7–16 years prior to the mortality, indicating a more conservative water-use strategy under drought stress compared with non-dieback trees, possibly at the cost of canopy defoliation and long-term shoot dieback. The iWUE became significantly higher in the now-dead group than in the dieback group at 0–7 years before death, about 10 years later than the divergence of BAI. After the iWUE became significantly different among the groups, the now-dead trees showed lower growth and died over the next few years. This indicates that, for the TNSF shelterbelts studied, an abrupt iWUE increase can be used as a warning signal for acceleration of impending drought-induced tree death. In general, we found that long-term drought decreased growth and increased iWUE of poplar tree. Successive droughts could drive dieback and now-dead trees to their physiological limits of drought tolerance, potentially leading to decline and mortality episodes.

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Tree-ring responses to extreme climate events as benchmarks for terrestrial dynamic vegetation models

Biogeosciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/bgd-11-2537-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 11 (2) ◽

pp. 2537-2568 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

A. Rammig ◽

M. Wiedermann ◽

J. F. Donges ◽

F. Babst ◽

W. von Bloh ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Tree Ring ◽

Tree Growth ◽

Extreme Events ◽

Ring Width ◽

Climate Extremes ◽

Tree Ring Width ◽

Model Data ◽

Vegetation Models ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Climate extremes can trigger exceptional responses in terrestrial ecosystems, for instance by altering growth or mortality rates. Effects of this kind are often manifested in reductions of the local net primary production (NPP). Investigating a set of European long-term data on annual radial tree growth confirms this pattern: we find that 53% of tree ring width (TRW) indices are below one standard deviation, and up to 16% of the TRW values are below two standard deviations in years with extremely high temperatures and low precipitation. Based on these findings we investigate if climate driven patterns in long-term tree growth data may serve as benchmarks for state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation models such as LPJmL. The model simulates NPP but not explicitly the radial tree ring growth, hence requiring a generic method to ensure an objective comparison. Here we propose an analysis scheme that quantifies the coincidence rate of climate extremes with some biotic responses (here TRW or simulated NPP). We find that the reduction in tree-ring width during drought extremes is lower than the corresponding reduction of simulated NPP. We identify ten extreme years during the 20th century in which both, model and measurements indicate high coincidence rates across Europe. However, we detect substantial regional differences in simulated and observed responses to extreme events. One explanation for this discrepancy could be that the tree-ring data have preferentially been sampled at more climatically stressed sites. The model-data difference is amplified by the fact that dynamic vegetation models are designed to simulate mean ecosystem responses at landscape or regional scale. However, we find that both model-data and measurements display carry-over effects from the previous year. We conclude that using radial tree growth is a good basis for generic model-benchmarks if the data are analyzed by scale-free measures such as coincidence analysis. Our study shows strong reductions in carbon sequestration during extreme years. However, for a better understanding of the impact of extreme events on e.g. the long-term fate of the European carbon balance, more long-term measurement data and improved process-based models are needed.

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Temperature variability in the Iberian Range since 1602 inferred from tree-ring records

Climate of the Past ◽

10.5194/cp-13-93-2017 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 13 (2) ◽

pp. 93-105 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

Ernesto Tejedor ◽

Miguel Ángel Saz ◽

José María Cuadrat ◽

Jan Esper ◽

Martín de Luis

Keyword(s):

Tree Ring ◽

Full Range ◽

Ring Width ◽

Low Frequency ◽

Basal Area ◽

Volcanic Eruptions ◽

Temperature Variability ◽

Iberian Range ◽

Cambial Age ◽

Low Frequency Variability

Abstract. Tree rings are an important proxy to understand the natural drivers of climate variability in the Mediterranean Basin and hence to improve future climate scenarios in a vulnerable region. Here, we compile 316 tree-ring width series from 11 conifer sites in the western Iberian Range. We apply a new standardization method based on the trunk basal area instead of the tree cambial age to develop a regional chronology which preserves high- to low-frequency variability. A new reconstruction for the 1602–2012 period correlates at −0.78 with observational September temperatures with a cumulative mean of the 21 previous months over the 1945–2012 calibration period. The new IR2Tmax reconstruction is spatially representative for the Iberian Peninsula and captures the full range of past Iberian Range temperature variability. Reconstructed long-term temperature variations match reasonably well with solar irradiance changes since warm and cold phases correspond with high and low solar activity, respectively. In addition, some annual temperature downturns coincide with volcanic eruptions with a 3-year lag.

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Long-Term Trends in Tree-Ring Width and Isotope Signatures (δ13C, δ15N) of Fagus sylvatica L. on Soils with Contrasting Water Supply

Ecosystems ◽

10.1007/s10021-013-9692-x ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 16 (8) ◽

pp. 1413-1428 ◽

Cited By ~ 25

Author(s):

Werner Härdtle ◽

Thomas Niemeyer ◽

Thorsten Assmann ◽

Saskia Baiboks ◽

Andreas Fichtner ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Water Supply ◽

Tree Ring ◽

Fagus Sylvatica ◽

Ring Width ◽

Tree Ring Width ◽

Long Term Trends ◽

Fagus Sylvatica L

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Dendrohydrological Reconstructions Based on Tree-Ring Width (TRW) Chronologies of Narrow-Leaved Ash in the Sava River Basin (Croatia)

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13042408 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (4) ◽

pp. 2408

Author(s):

Domagoj Trlin ◽

Stjepan Mikac ◽

Anja Žmegač ◽

Marko Orešković

Keyword(s):

Water Level ◽

River Water ◽

River Basin ◽

Tree Ring ◽

Temporal Dynamics ◽

Ring Width ◽

Tree Ring Width ◽

Sava River ◽

The Sava River

Current flood risk management is based on statistical models and assessments of the risk of occurrence over a given time period, although with very short measurement periods, usually following catastrophic events. Ongoing monitoring of basic hydrological (river-water level and streamflow) and climate data are the basis for sustainable water management and long-term flood control planning. The lack of data has proven to be particularly negative during this period of global climate change, when non-seasonal flooding (during summer) is becoming increasingly frequent, and the resulting damage greater. The aim of this study was to analyse the possible use of tree ring width chronologies of trees growing in floodplain areas to reconstruct hydrodynamic variables (river-water level and streamflow). The study analysed the influence of climatic and hydrological variables on the growth of narrow-leaved ash (Fraxinus angustifolia Vahl) in the Sava River basin. The results indicate the significant potential of narrow-leaved ash tree-ring width chronologies to reconstruct the summer streamflows of the Sava River (R2 = 0.45). These results can serve to develop long-term data series on the summer streamflows of the river, thereby enabling better insight into its spatial and temporal dynamics with the goal of more successful, sustainable management of floodplain areas.

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