Non-linear relationships and interactions of meteorological factors on mumps in Jinan, China

Author(s):  
Shaoqian Lin ◽  
Shiman Ruan ◽  
Xingyi Geng ◽  
Kaijun Song ◽  
Liangliang Cui ◽  
...  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianyun Lu ◽  
Yanhui Liu ◽  
Xiaowei Ma ◽  
Meixia Li ◽  
Zhicong Yang

Background: Scrub typhus was epidemic in the western Pacific Ocean area and East Asia, scrub typhus epidemic in densely populated areas in southern China. To better understand the association between meteorological variables, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and scrub typhus incidence in Guangzhou was benefit to the control and prevention.Methodology/Principal Findings: We collected weekly data for scrub typhus cases and meteorological variables in Guangzhou, and Southern Oscillation Index from 2006 to 2018, and used the distributed lag non-linear models to evaluate the relationships between meteorological variables, SOI and scrub typhus. The median value of each variable was set as the reference. The high-risk occupations were farmer (51.10%), house worker (17.51%), and retiree (6.29%). The non-linear relationships were observed with different lag weeks. For example, when the mean temperature was 27.7°C with1-week lag, the relative risk (RR) was highest as 1.08 (95% CI: 1.01–1.17). The risk was the highest when the relative humidity was 92.0% with 9-week lag, with the RR of 1.10 (95% CI: 1.02–1.19). For aggregate rainfall, the highest RR was 1.06 (95% CI: 1.03–1.11), when it was 83.0 mm with 4-week lag. When the SOI was 19 with 11-week lag, the highest RR was 1.06 (95% CI: 1.01–1.12). Most of the extreme effects of SOI and meteorological factors on scrub typical cases were statistically significant.Conclusion/Significance: The high-risk occupations of scrub typhus in Guangzhou were farmer, house worker, and retiree. Meteorological factors and SOI played an important role in scrub typhus occurrence in Guangzhou. Non-linear relationships were observed in almost all the variables in our study. Approximately, mean temperature, and relative humidity positively correlated to the incidence of scrub typhus, on the contrary to atmospheric pressure and weekly temperature range (WTR). Aggregate rainfall and wind velocity showed an inverse-U curve, whereas the SOI appeared the bimodal distribution. These findings can be helpful to facilitate the development of the early warning system to prevent the scrub typhus.


2012 ◽  
Vol 23 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 111-123 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Wen ◽  
L.M. Su ◽  
W.C. Qin ◽  
J. He ◽  
L. Fu ◽  
...  

2007 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 287-326 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. J. Abrahart ◽  
L. M. See

Abstract. The potential of an artificial neural network to perform simple non-linear hydrological transformations is examined. Four neural network models were developed to emulate different facets of a recognised non-linear hydrological transformation equation that possessed a small number of variables and contained no temporal component. The modeling process was based on a set of uniform random distributions. The cloning operation facilitated a direct comparison with the exact equation-based relationship. It also provided broader information about the power of a neural network to emulate existing equations and model non-linear relationships. Several comparisons with least squares multiple linear regression were performed. The first experiment involved a direct emulation of the Xinanjiang Rainfall-Runoff Model. The next two experiments were designed to assess the competencies of two neural solutions that were developed on a reduced number of inputs. This involved the omission and conflation of previous inputs. The final experiment used derived variables to model intrinsic but otherwise concealed internal relationships that are of hydrological interest. Two recent studies have suggested that neural solutions offer no worthwhile improvements in comparison to traditional weighted linear transfer functions for capturing the non-linear nature of hydrological relationships. Yet such fundamental properties are intrinsic aspects of catchment processes that cannot be excluded or ignored. The results from the four experiments that are reported in this paper are used to challenge the interpretations from these two earlier studies and thus further the debate with regards to the appropriateness of neural networks for hydrological modelling.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiani Wu ◽  
Chunli Zhao ◽  
Chaoyang Li ◽  
Tao Wang ◽  
Lanjing Wang ◽  
...  

Aim: Promoting walking activity is an effective way to improve the health of older adults. Walking frequency is a critical component of walking behavior and an essential determinant of daily walking levels. To decipher the association between the built environment and walking frequency among older adults, this study's aims are as follows: (1) to empirically test whether non-linear relationships between the two exist, and (2) to identify the thresholds of the built environment characteristics that promote walking.Methods: The walking frequency of old adults was derived from the Zhongshan Household Travel Survey (ZHTS) in 2012. The sample size of old adults aged 60 or over was 4784 from 274 urban and rural neighborhoods. A semi-parametric generalized additive model (GAMM) is used to analyze the non-linear or non-monotonic relationships between the built environment and the walking frequency among older adults.Results: We found that non-linear relationships exist among five out of the six built environment characteristics. Within certain thresholds, the population density, sidewalk density, bus stop density, land use mixture, and the percentage of green space are positively related to older adults' walking trips. Furthermore, the land use mixture and the percentage of green space show an inverse “V”-shaped relationship.Conclusions: Built environment features can either support or hinder the walking frequency among older adults. The findings in the current study contribute to effective land use and transport policies for promoting active travel among older adults.


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