Changes to the drivers of fire weather with a warming climate – a case study of southeast Tasmania

2014 ◽  
Vol 124 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 255-269 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael R. Grose ◽  
Paul Fox-Hughes ◽  
Rebecca M. B. Harris ◽  
Nathaniel L. Bindoff
Keyword(s):  
Energy ◽  
2022 ◽  
pp. 123099
Author(s):  
V.V. Klimenko ◽  
S.M. Krasheninnikov ◽  
E.V. Fedotova
Keyword(s):  

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bryson C. Bates ◽  
Andrew J. Dowdy ◽  
Lachlan McCaw

AbstractUnderstanding the relationships between large-scale, low-frequency climate variability modes, fire weather conditions and lighting-ignited wildfires has implications for fire-weather prediction, fire management and conservation. This article proposes a Bayesian network framework for quantifying the influence of climate modes on fire weather conditions and occurrence of lightning-ignited wildfires. The main objectives are to describe and demonstrate a probabilistic framework for identifying and quantifying the joint and individual relationships that comprise the climate-wildfire system; gain insight into potential causal mechanisms and pathways; gauge the influence of climate modes on fire weather and lightning-ignition relative to that of local-scale conditions alone; assess the predictive skill of the network; and motivate the use of techniques that are intuitive, flexible and for which user‐friendly software is freely available. A case study illustrates the application of the framework to a forested region in southwest Australia. Indices for six climate variability modes are considered along with two hazard variables (observed fire weather conditions and prescribed burn area), and a 41-year record of lightning-ignited wildfire counts. Using the case study data set, we demonstrate that the proposed framework: (1) is based on reasonable assumptions provided the joint density of the variables is converted to multivariate normal; (2) generates a parsimonious and interpretable network architecture; (3) identifies known or partially known relationships between the variables; (4) has potential to be used in a predictive setting for fire weather conditions; and (5) climate modes are more directly related to fire weather conditions than to lightning-ignition counts.


Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 450
Author(s):  
Luke Collins ◽  
Adele Hunter ◽  
Sarah McColl-Gausden ◽  
Trent D. Penman ◽  
Philip Zylstra

Research highlights—Feedbacks between fire severity, vegetation structure and ecosystem flammability are understudied in highly fire-tolerant forests that are dominated by epicormic resprouters. We examined the relationships between the severity of two overlapping fires in a resprouting eucalypt forest and the subsequent effect of fire severity on fuel structure. We found that the likelihood of a canopy fire was the highest in areas that had previously been exposed to a high level of canopy scorch or consumption. Fuel structure was sensitive to the time since the previous canopy fire, but not the number of canopy fires. Background and Objectives—Feedbacks between fire and vegetation may constrain or amplify the effect of climate change on future wildfire behaviour. Such feedbacks have been poorly studied in forests dominated by highly fire-tolerant epicormic resprouters. Here, we conducted a case study based on two overlapping fires within a eucalypt forest that was dominated by epicormic resprouters to examine (1) whether past wildfire severity affects future wildfire severity, and (2) how combinations of understorey fire and canopy fire within reburnt areas affect fuel properties. Materials and Methods—The study focused on ≈77,000 ha of forest in south-eastern Australia that was burnt by a wildfire in 2007 and reburnt in 2013. The study system was dominated by eucalyptus trees that can resprout epicormically following fires that substantially scorch or consume foliage in the canopy layer. We used satellite-derived mapping to assess whether the severity of the 2013 fire was affected by the severity of the 2007 fire. Five levels of fire severity were considered (lowest to highest): unburnt, low canopy scorch, moderate canopy scorch, high canopy scorch and canopy consumption. Field surveys were then used to assess whether combinations of understorey fire (<80% canopy scorch) and canopy fire (>90% canopy consumption) recorded over the 2007 and 2013 fires caused differences in fuel structure. Results—Reburn severity was influenced by antecedent fire severity under severe fire weather, with the likelihood of canopy-consuming fire increasing with increasing antecedent fire severity up to those classes causing a high degree of canopy disturbance (i.e., high canopy scorch or canopy consumption). The increased occurrence of canopy-consuming fire largely came at the expense of the moderate and high canopy scorch classes, suggesting that there was a shift from crown scorch to crown consumption. Antecedent fire severity had little effect on the severity patterns of the 2013 fire under nonsevere fire weather. Areas affected by canopy fire in 2007 and/or 2013 had greater vertical connectivity of fuels than sites that were reburnt by understorey fires, though we found no evidence that repeated canopy fires were having compounding effects on fuel structure. Conclusions—Our case study suggests that exposure to canopy-defoliating fires has the potential to increase the severity of subsequent fires in resprouting eucalypt forests in the short term. We propose that the increased vertical connectivity of fuels caused by resprouting and seedling recruitment were responsible for the elevated fire severity. The effect of antecedent fire severity on reburn severity will likely be constrained by a range of factors, such as fire weather.


2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 37
Author(s):  
Sama Al-Dabbagh ◽  
Hadil AL-Shouhani ◽  
Nabaa Hussein

A series of huge wildfires occurred in some regions of Lebanon in mid-October 2019, when the region witnessed a heat wave with high averages of minimum and maximum temperatures, accompanied by dry weather conditions. This study aimed to investigate the weather pattern that predominated over Lebanon between 10 and 18 October 2019, and to study the weather factors that ignited and spread the fire in several places. The study focused on the Chouf district, in Mount Lebanon Governorate, which witnessed the most severe wildfire outbreak, based on ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis data at the surface and upper levels between 10 and 18 October 2019. It was found that the existence of an atmospheric blocking system over the region for many days was the main factor in the creation of the dry and extremely hot weather, and that the breakdown of the ridge ignited the fire, reinforcing the wildfire’s intensity and spreading fire patches to other regions.


2009 ◽  
Vol 59 (7) ◽  
pp. 1271-1280 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. A. Keath ◽  
R. R. Brown

It is widely accepted that new, more sustainable approaches to urban water management are required if cities and ecosystems are to become resilient to the effects of growing urban populations and global warming. Climate change predictions show that it is likely that cities around the world will be subject to an increasing number of extreme and less predictable events including flooding and drought. Historical transition studies have shown that major events such as extremes can expedite the adoption of new practices by destabilising existing management regimes and opening up new windows of opportunity for change. Yet, they can also act to reinforce and further entrench old practices. This case study of two Australian cities responding to extreme water scarcity reveals that being unprepared for extremes can undermine progress towards sustainable outcomes. The results showed that despite evidence of significant progress towards sustainable urban water management in Brisbane and Melbourne, the extreme water scarcity acted to reinforce traditional practices at the expense of emerging sustainability niches. Drawing upon empirical research and transitions literature, recommendations are provided for developing institutional mechanisms that are able to respond proactively to extreme events and be a catalyst for SUWM when such opportunities for change arise.


2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Stephen Mastaler

AbstractThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's report, Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, outlines the risks that climate change is and will continue to bring to human and ecological communities across the globe. The report suggests it will be the global poor who will face the most devastating effects of global climate change. In light of this report, this paper will endeavor to articulate an understanding of who the global poor are today and how they are increasingly marginalized and disaffected by a warming climate. It will then identify and look to the experience of one Christian community's contextual response to the current suffering of the poor in order to identify the theological principles being lived out in the praxis of the community. After these principles are identified, the paper will evaluate them for appropriation in a theological ethic that can serve as further inspiration for continued and future faith-filled responses to the emerging challenges of climate change on marginalized communities.


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