scholarly journals Inter-model agreement on projected shifts in California hydroclimate characteristics critical to water management

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geeta G. Persad ◽  
Daniel L. Swain ◽  
Claire Kouba ◽  
J. Pablo Ortiz-Partida
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
The State ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Projection Data ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Model Agreement

Abstract Shifts away from the historical hydroclimate in populated regions can have dire consequences for water management. Regions like the state of California—where highly engineered, geographically interconnected, and inflexible water management systems are predicated on particular spatiotemporal patterns of water availability—are particularly vulnerable to hydroclimate shifts. However, much of the analysis of hydroclimate sensitivity to anthropogenic climate change has focused on gross metrics like annual mean precipitation, which is highly uncertain at the regional scale. This perceived uncertainty has deterred adaptation investments and quantitative integration of climate projection data into regional water management. Here, we assess projected future shifts in the state of California in a range of hydroclimate metrics critical to water management, using data from 10 statistically downscaled global climate model and two emissions scenarios currently used by the state. We find substantial inter-model agreement under both emissions scenarios—and > 80% inter-model agreement under the more severe climate change scenario—across metrics that collectively point toward an increasingly volatile, temporally concentrated, and extreme precipitation future for the state. We show, via hydrologic and operations modeling, that accounting for shifts in these more nuanced metrics reduces the projected reliability and sustainability of current water management practices to a greater degree than would be inferred from changes in total annual precipitation alone. These results highlight both the viability and critical importance of incorporating climate change projections quantitatively into water management decisions in California and other regions vulnerable to hydroclimate shifts, and underscore the need to develop integrated climate-hydrologic-operations models and decision-making protocols capable of accounting for all projected hydroclimate shifts.

State of the Climate Report: Suriname

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kepa Solaun ◽  
Gerard Alleng ◽  
Adrián Flores ◽  
Chiquita Resomardono ◽  
Katharina Hess ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
The State ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Policies ◽  
Natural Reserve ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Agriculture Water

Suriname is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Among the factors that exacerbate its vulnerability are its dependency on fossil fuels, the degradation of important ecosystems (e.g., mangroves), and the fact that 87% of the population, and most of the countrys economic activity is located within the low-lying coastal area. Many sectors are at risk of suffering losses and damage caused by gradual changes and extreme events related to climate change. For Suriname to develop sustainably, it should incorporate climate change and its effects into its decision-making process based on scientific- evidence. The State of the Climate Report analyzes Surinames historical climate (1990-2014) and provides climate projections for three time horizons (2020-2044, 2045-2069, 2070-2094) through two emissions scenarios (intermediate/ SSP2-4.5 and severe/ SSP5-8.5). The analysis focuses on changes in sea level, temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and winds for the seven subnational locations of Paramaribo, Albina, Bigi Pan MUMA, Brokopondo, Kwamalasamutu, Tafelberg Natural Reserve, and Upper Tapanahony. The Report also analyzes climate risk for the countrys ten districts by examining the factors which increase their exposure and vulnerability on the four most important sectors affected by climate change: infrastructure, agriculture, water, and forestry, as well as examining the effects across the sectors. The State of the Climate Report provides essential inputs for Suriname to develop and update its climate change policies and targets. These policies and targets should enable an adequate mainstreaming of climate change adaptation and resilience enhancementinto day-to-day government operations. It is expected that the Report will catalyze similar efforts in the future to improve decision-making by providing science-based evidence.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Long-Term SOC and Crop Productivity within Conservation Systems Using GFDL CM2.1 and EPIC

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 2665 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kieu N. Le ◽  
Manoj K. Jha ◽  
Jaehak Jeong ◽  
Philip W. Gassman ◽  
Manuel R. Reyes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Upland Rice ◽  
Cropping Systems ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Crop Productivity ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Epic Model

Will soil organic carbon (SOC) and yields increase for conservation management systems in tropical zones in response to the next 100 years? To answer the question, the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was used to study the effects of climate change, cropping systems, conservation agriculture (CA) and conservation tillage management practices on SOC and crop productivity in Kampong Cham, Cambodia. The EPIC model was successfully calibrated and validated for crop yields, biomass, SOC and nitrogen based on field data from a five-year field experiment. Historical weather (1994–2013) was used for baseline assessment versus mid-century (2046–2064) and late-century (2081–2100) climate projections generated by the Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) CM2.1 global climate model. The simulated results showed that upland rice yield would increase the most under the B1 scenario in mid-century for all treatments, followed by soybean and maize. Cassava yield only increased under CA treatment when cultivated as a continuous primary crop. Carbon sequestration was more sensitive to cropping systems and crop rotation than climate change. The results indicated that the rotated CA primary crop (maize) systems should be prioritized for SOC sequestration as well as for increasing crop productivity. In addition, rice systems may increase SOC compared to soybean and cassava.

scholarly journals A Comparative Study on Water Management Practices in India with Special Reference to Gujarat and Meghalaya

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 9-21
Author(s):  
Naini Jain ◽  
Neha Makkar
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
Comparative Study ◽  
Special Reference ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
The State ◽  
Index Score ◽  
Water Crisis ◽  
Water Index ◽  
Fast Development

India is experiencing the most terrible water emergency in its history and a large number of lives are under risk. The fast development of populace joined with rising degrees of utilization and contamination has expanded water frailty in India. Meghalaya, concealed in the slopes of eastern sub-Himalayas is one of the most excellent states in the nation. Nature has favoured her with plenteous precipitation, sun-sparkle, virgin timberlands, high levels, tumbling cascades, completely clear waterways, wandering streamlets or more all with strong, shrewd and accommodating individuals. Yet Meghalaya had the lowest Water Index score of 26.This paper studies nine parameters where Meghalaya (being the worst performer with score of 26) is lagging behind from Gujarat (being the highest performer with the score of 76) in Composite Water Index. A descriptive analysis has been done and lessons gained are proposed for the management of water crisis in the state of Meghalaya.

scholarly journals Regional aspects of global climate change simulations : Validation and assessment of climate response over Indian monsoon region to transient increase of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 229-244
Author(s):  
K. RUPA KUMAR ◽  
R. G. ASHRIT
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Sulfate Aerosols ◽  
Monsoon Climate

The regional climatic impacts associated with global climatic change and their assessment are very important since agriculture, water resources, ecology etc., are all vulnerable to climatic changes on regional scale. Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations provide a range of scenarios, which can be used, for the assessment of impacts and development of adaptive or mitigative strategies. Validation of the models against the observations and establishing the sensitivity to climate change forcing are essential before the model projections are used for assessment of possible impacts. Moreover model simulated climate projections are often of coarse resolution while the models used for impact assessment, (e.g. crop simulation models, or river runoff models etc.) operate on a higher spatial resolution. This spatial mismatch can be overcome by adopting an appropriate strategy of downscaling the GCM output.   This study examines two AOGCM (ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HadCM2) climate change simulations for their performance in the simulation of monsoon climate over India and the sensitivity of the simulated monsoon climate to transient changes in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols. The results show that the two models simulate the gross features of climate over India reasonably well. However the inter-model differences in simulation of mean characteristics, sensitivity to forcing and in the simulation of climate change suggest need for caution. Further an empirical downscaling approach in used to assess the possibility of using GCM projections for preparation of regional climate change scenario for India.

Improved Irrigation Management for Sustainable Agriculture

2015 ◽  
pp. 357-378 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vesna Popović ◽  
Vladan Ugrenović
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Natural Resources ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Irrigation Management ◽  
Sustainable Intensification ◽  
Green Economy ◽  
Irrigation Development ◽  
The Republic

Studying the future of food and farming, scientists have called for sustainable intensification to simultaneously raise yields and increase efficiency in the use of inputs and reduce the negative environmental effects of food production. Sustainable intensification requires sustainable agricultural techniques such as improved water management practices that result in higher, stabilized, and diversified agricultural production, and greater resilience to climate change without the deterioration of natural resources and the environment. This chapter is devoted to the role of irrigation development in Serbian agriculture and its contribution to the development of the green economy in the Republic of Serbia.

scholarly journals Different processes affecting long-term Ravenna coastal drainage basins (Italy): implications for water management

2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (15) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukman A. Soboyejo ◽  
Beatrice M. S. Giambastiani ◽  
Mario Molducci ◽  
Marco Antonellini
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Land Subsidence ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Saline Water ◽  
Soil Salinization ◽  
Soil Water Storage ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Water Drainage ◽  
Coastal Basins

AbstractThe low-lying coastal basins of Ravenna (Italy) are at or below mean sea level and currently undergoing land subsidence, which exposes the basins to frequent inundation and groundwater and soil salinization. The surface water drainage becomes necessary to lower the water table head and further prevent flooding and waterlogging. The study examines the evolution of drainage apropos to climate change and land subsidence in the three main Ravenna coastal basins. Our findings show that the evolution of drainage is influenced by land subsidence, climate change variability, droughts, vertical seepage, and local water management. Land subsidence causes an increase in upward-directed vertical seepage of saline water through the shallow unconfined aquifer into the drainage channels of the coastal basins, thus leading to an increase in drainage through time. At a seasonal timescale, the rate of pumping depends on antecedent rainfall and soil–water storage. The warming extremes indices, specifically drought indices, show to be more significant than rainfall indices trends to monitor drainage evolution. Drought indices permit easy comparison of dryness or wetness severity with drainage evolution along their time scale. The co-occurring anthropogenic and natural factors involving in the increasing drainage rate will affect decadal and seasonal water management policies in the area. The implications of increasing drainage rates, long periods of drought with limited rainfall, and increasing temperature will further worsen freshwater availability in this coastal area already experiencing soil and water salinization. However, drainage of this low-lying territory has effectively mitigated rising water tables and avoided flooding. Our study has shown that each coastal basin behaves differently in terms of sensitivity to land subsidence and climate extremes. Therefore, when using drainage data time series for water management purposes, one should account for past management practices and for the specific sensitivity of each basin to external factors.

Verification of GCM-Generated Regional Seasonal Precipitation for Current Climate and of Statistical Downscaling Estimates under Changing Climate Conditions

1999 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 258-272 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aristita Busuioc ◽  
Hans von Storch ◽  
Reiner Schnur
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
The Other ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Seasonal Precipitation ◽  
Empirical Downscaling

Abstract Empirical downscaling procedures relate large-scale atmospheric features with local features such as station rainfall in order to facilitate local scenarios of climate change. The purpose of the present paper is twofold: first, a downscaling technique is used as a diagnostic tool to verify the performance of climate models on the regional scale; second, a technique is proposed for verifying the validity of empirical downscaling procedures in climate change applications. The case considered is regional seasonal precipitation in Romania. The downscaling model is a regression based on canonical correlation analysis between observed station precipitation and European-scale sea level pressure (SLP). The climate models considered here are the T21 and T42 versions of the Hamburg ECHAM3 atmospheric GCM run in “time-slice” mode. The climate change scenario refers to the expected time of doubled carbon dioxide concentrations around the year 2050. The downscaling model is skillful for all seasons except spring. The general features of the large-scale SLP variability are reproduced fairly well by both GCMs in all seasons. The climate models reproduce the empirically determined precipitation–SLP link in winter, whereas the observed link is only partially captured for the other seasons. Thus, these models may be considered skillful with respect to regional precipitation during winter, and partially during the other seasons. Generally, applications of statistical downscaling to climate change scenarios have been based on the assumption that the empirical link between the large-scale and regional parameters remains valid under a changed climate. In this study, a rationale is proposed for this assumption by showing the consistency of the 2 × CO2 GCM scenarios in winter, derived directly from the gridpoint data, with the regional scenarios obtained through empirical downscaling. Since the skill of the GCMs in regional terms is already established, it is concluded that the downscaling technique is adequate for describing climatically changing regional and local conditions, at least for precipitation in Romania during winter.

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