scholarly journals Integrating archival analysis, observational data, and climate projections to assess extreme event impacts in Alaska

2020 ◽  
Vol 163 (2) ◽  
pp. 669-687
Author(s):  
Nathan P. Kettle ◽  
John E. Walsh ◽  
Lindsey Heaney ◽  
Richard L. Thoman ◽  
Kyle Redilla ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Observational Data ◽  
Information Needs ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Weather Events

AbstractUnderstanding potential risks, vulnerabilities, and impacts to weather extremes and climate change are key information needs for coastal planners and managers in support of climate adaptation. Assessing historical trends and potential socio-economic impacts is especially difficult in the Arctic given limitations on availability of weather observations and historical impacts. This study utilizes a novel interdisciplinary approach that integrates archival analysis, observational data, and climate model downscaling to synthesize information on historical and projected impacts of extreme weather events in Nome, Alaska. Over 300 impacts (1990–2018) are identified based on analyses of the Nome Nugget newspaper articles and Storm Data entries. Historical impacts centered on transportation, community activities, and utilities. Analysis of observed and ERA5 reanalysis data indicates that impacts are frequently associated with high wind, extreme low temperatures, heavy snowfall events, and winter days above freezing. Downscaled output (2020–2100) from two climate models suggests that there will be changes in the frequency and timing of these extreme weather events. For example, extreme cold temperature is projected to decrease through the 2040s and then rarely occurs afterwards, and extreme wind events show little change before the 2070s. Significantly, our findings also reveal that not all weather-related extremes will change monotonically throughout the twenty-first century, such as extreme snowfall events that will increase through the 2030s before declining in the 2040s. The dynamical nature of projected changes in extreme events has implications for climate adaptation planning.

Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (49) ◽  
pp. e2112087118
Author(s):  
Nicholas J. Leach ◽  
Antje Weisheimer ◽  
Myles R. Allen ◽  
Tim Palmer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
False Negative ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
The Impact

Attribution of extreme weather events has expanded rapidly as a field over the past decade. However, deficiencies in climate model representation of key dynamical drivers of extreme events have led to some concerns over the robustness of climate model–based attribution studies. It has also been suggested that the unconditioned risk-based approach to event attribution may result in false negative results due to dynamical noise overwhelming any climate change signal. The “storyline” attribution framework, in which the impact of climate change on individual drivers of an extreme event is examined, aims to mitigate these concerns. Here we propose a methodology for attribution of extreme weather events using the operational European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) medium-range forecast model that successfully predicted the event. The use of a successful forecast ensures not only that the model is able to accurately represent the event in question, but also that the analysis is unequivocally an attribution of this specific event, rather than a mixture of multiple different events that share some characteristic. Since this attribution methodology is conditioned on the component of the event that was predictable at forecast initialization, we show how adjusting the lead time of the forecast can flexibly set the level of conditioning desired. This flexible adjustment of the conditioning allows us to synthesize between a storyline (highly conditioned) and a risk-based (relatively unconditioned) approach. We demonstrate this forecast-based methodology through a partial attribution of the direct radiative effect of increased CO2 concentrations on the exceptional European winter heatwave of February 2019.

scholarly journals Why Are Siberian Temperatures Plummeting While the Arctic Warms?

Eos ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kimberly Cartier
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Stratospheric Circulation

The answer involves the intricacies of stratospheric circulation, which, if better represented in climate models, could help predict extreme weather events in Siberia and elsewhere.

scholarly journals Awareness of climate change's impacts and motivation to adapt are not enough to drive action: A look of Puerto Rican farmers after Hurricane Maria

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. e0244512
Author(s):  
Luis Alexis Rodríguez-Cruz ◽  
Meredith T. Niles
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Puerto Rican ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Psychological Distance ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events

Understanding how perceptions around motivation, capacity, and climate change’s impacts relate to the adoption of adaptation practices in light of experiences with extreme weather events is important in assessing farmers’ adaptive capacity. However, very little of this work has occurred in islands, which may have different vulnerabilities and capacities for adaptation. Data of surveyed farmers throughout Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria (n = 405, 87% response rate) were used in a structural equation model to explore the extent to which their adoption of agricultural practices and management strategies was driven by perceptions of motivation, vulnerability, and capacity as a function of their psychological distance of climate change. Our results show that half of farmers did not adopt any practice or strategy, even though the majority perceived themselves capable and motivated to adapt to climate change, and understood their farms to be vulnerable to future extreme events. Furthermore, adoption was neither linked to these adaptation perceptions, nor to their psychological distance of climate change, which we found to be both near and far. Puerto Rican farmers’ showed a broad awareness of climate change’s impacts both locally and globally in different dimensions (temporal, spatial, and social), and climate distance was not linked to reported damages from Hurricane Maria or to previous extreme weather events. These results suggest that we may be reaching a tipping point for extreme events as a driver for climate belief and action, especially in places where there is a high level of climate change awareness and continued experience of compounded impacts. Further, high perceived capacity and motivation are not linked to actual adaptation behaviors, suggesting that broadening adaptation analyses beyond individual perceptions and capacities as drivers of climate adaptation may give us a better understanding of the determinants to strengthen farmers’ adaptive capacity.

scholarly journals On the attribution of the impacts of extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah E Perkins-Kirkpatrick ◽  
Daithi Stone ◽  
Dann M. Mitchell ◽  
Suzanne M. Rosier ◽  
Andrew David King ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Anthropogenic Impacts ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Care Needs ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Investigations into the role of anthropogenic climate change in extreme weather events are now starting to extend into analysis of anthropogenic impacts on non-climate (e.g. socio-economic) systems. However, care needs to be taken when making this extension, because methodological choices regarding extreme weather attribution can become crucial when considering the events’ impacts. The fraction of attributable risk (FAR) method, useful in extreme weather attribution research, has a very specific interpretation concerning a class of events, and there is potential to misinterpret results from weather event analyses as being applicable to specific events and their impact outcomes. Using two case studies of meteorological extremes and their impacts, we argue that FAR is not generally appropriate when estimating the magnitude of the anthropogenic signal behind a specific impact. Attribution assessments on impacts should always be carried out in addition to assessment of the associated meteorological event, since it cannot be assumed that the anthropogenic signal behind the weather is equivalent to the signal behind the impact because of lags and nonlinearities in the processes through which the impact system reacts to weather. Whilst there are situations where employing FAR to understand the climate change signal behind a class of impacts is useful (e.g. “system breaking” events), more useful results will generally be produced if attribution questions on specific impacts are reframed to focus on changes in the impact return value and magnitude across large samples of factual and counterfactual climate model and impact simulations. We advocate for constant interdisciplinary collaboration as essential for effective and robust impact attribution assessments.

scholarly journals Gênese, Impacto e a Variabilidade das Precipitações de Granizo na Mesorregião Centro-Sul Paranaense, Brasil / Genesis, Impact and Variability of Hail Precipitations in the Central South Mesoregion of the State of Paraná, Brazil

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (56) ◽  
pp. 61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan Felipe da Silva Caldana ◽  
Anderson Paulo Rudke ◽  
Iara Da Silva ◽  
Pablo Ricardo Nitsche ◽  
Paulo Henrique Caramori
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Event ◽  
Urban Climate ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Urban Environments ◽  
Civil Defense ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Central South

Condições de tempo e clima são essenciais para a agricultura e o desenvolvimento da sociedade, entretanto, sua dinâmica pouco compreendida pode comprometer algumas atividades humanas. A precipitação de granizo, um evento extremo caracterizado por precipitação de água em estado sólido, tem alta capacidade destrutiva no meio rural e urbano, gerando transtornos e prejuízos frequentes. A Mesorregião Centro-Sul Paranaense (MRCSP) possui uma grande área de produção agrícola e aproximadamente 500 mil habitantes, que podem estar vulneráveis a eventos meteorológicos extremos, sendo necessário estudos que auxiliem o planejamento para auxiliar tomadas de decisão na região. Desta forma, este trabalho teve por objetivo identificar a gênese, frequência, ocorrência, impactos e a variabilidade de precipitações de granizo na MRCSP, fornecendo suporte para o planejamento e adoção de preventivas de combate ao impacto desse fenômeno na região. Foram utilizadas quatro fontes distintas de dados: estações agrometeorológicas, jornais regionais, imagens de satélite e relatórios de ocorrências, danos e situações de emergência da Defesa Civil. Foram identificados 37 decretos de situação de emergência vinculados a granizo e 395.057 pessoas afetadas na região, em 18 anos de análise. O principal dano observado foi o destelhamento. Em Laranjeiras do Sul observou-se, em média, 5,4 eventos por ano. Os sistemas convectivos e as frentes frias foram identificados como os principais sistemas meteorológicos atuantes na formação de granizo nesta região. Os resultados demonstraram alta frequência de precipitações de granizo em toda região. Com ausência de planejamento para redução da vulnerabilidade, a exposição aos eventos extremos meteorológicos permanece frequente.Palavras–chave: vulnerabilidade, risco climático, eventos extremos, clima urbano.Abstract Weather and climate conditions are essential for agriculture and the development of society; however, their little-understood dynamics can compromise some human activities. Hail precipitation, an extreme event characterised by solid state water precipitation, has high destructive capacity in rural and urban environments, generating frequent disturbances and losses. The Central-South Paraná state Meso-region (MRCSP) in southern Brazil has a large agricultural production area and approximately 500 thousand inhabitants, which may be vulnerable to extreme weather events, and studies are needed to assist in decision making in this region. This work aimed to identify the genesis, frequency, occurrence, impacts and variability of hail precipitation in the MRCSP, providing support for the planning and adoption of preventive measures to combat the impact of this phenomenon. Four different sources of data were used: agrometeorological stations, regional newspapers, satellite images and reports of occurrences, damages and emergencies issued by the Civil Defense. Thirty-seven emergency decrees related to hail and 395,057 people affected in the region were identified in 18 years of analysis. The primary damage observed was roof destruction. In Laranjeiras do Sul, an average of 5.4 events were observed per year. The convective systems and the cold fronts were identified as the central meteorological systems working in the genesis of hail in this region. In the absence of planning for vulnerability reduction, exposure to extreme weather events remains frequent.Keywords: vulnerability, climate risk, extreme events, urban climate.

scholarly journals An Independent Assessment of Anthropogenic Attribution Statements for Recent Extreme Temperature and Rainfall Events

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oliver Angélil ◽  
Dáithí Stone ◽  
Michael Wehner ◽  
Christopher J. Paciorek ◽  
Harinarayan Krishnan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Systematic Bias ◽  
American Meteorological Society ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Event Attribution

The annual “State of the Climate” report, published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS), has included a supplement since 2011 composed of brief analyses of the human influence on recent major extreme weather events. There are now several dozen extreme weather events examined in these supplements, but these studies have all differed in their data sources as well as their approaches to defining the events, analyzing the events, and the consideration of the role of anthropogenic emissions. This study reexamines most of these events using a single analytical approach and a single set of climate model and observational data sources. In response to recent studies recommending the importance of using multiple methods for extreme weather event attribution, results are compared from these analyses to those reported in the BAMS supplements collectively, with the aim of characterizing the degree to which the lack of a common methodological framework may or may not influence overall conclusions. Results are broadly similar to those reported earlier for extreme temperature events but disagree for a number of extreme precipitation events. Based on this, it is advised that the lack of comprehensive uncertainty analysis in recent extreme weather attribution studies is important and should be considered when interpreting results, but as yet it has not introduced a systematic bias across these studies.

Climate Research and Reinsurance*

2004 ◽  
Vol 85 (5) ◽  
pp. 697-708 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard J. Murnane
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Research Areas ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Mutual Interest ◽  
Insured Losses ◽  
Catastrophe Reinsurance

Extreme weather events produce some of the most deadly and costly natural disasters and are a major concern of the catastrophe reinsurance industry. For example, in 1992 Hurricane Andrew caused over $20 billion (in 2002 U.S. dollars) in insured losses, the largest loss on record due to a natural disaster. In addition, 26 of the top 30 insured losses were produced by extreme weather events, mainly landfalling hurricanes and typhoons and European windstorms. A better understanding of how extreme events vary with climate would benefit the reinsurance industry and society. The Risk Prediction Initiative hosted a workshop on Weather Extremes and Atmospheric Oscillations that examined how extreme meteorological events of interest to the reinsurance industry are influenced by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). Workshop participants concluded that the stratosphere is much more relevant to predictions that aid the reinsurance industry than is generally recognized and that there is mutual interest in fostering research on the relationship between the stratospheric circulation and extreme weather events. A preliminary science–business research agenda, based on presentations and discussions during and after the workshop, highlights four areas of mutual interest to scientists and insurers. The research areas focus mainly on understanding how the QBO, AO, and MJO influence the frequency and intensity of extreme events, with particular emphasis on tropical cyclones and European windstorms. An awareness of how the catastrophe reinsurance industry operates provides insights into why specific research areas were chosen. For example, the reinsurance industry operates on the basis of annual contracts, most of which are renewed on 1 January. Thus, although skillful forecasts at any lead are of interest, skillful forecasts of extreme events are of greatest value when made in the final quarter of a calendar year.

scholarly journals Extreme Weather Events and their Consequences

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Ageing Population ◽  
Weather Extremes ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Increased Risk

Abstract The damage (in real terms after adjusting for inflation) caused by extreme weather events globally has increased dramatically over the past few decades. This is a result of an increase in the amplitude and frequency of weather extremes, as well as of human factors causing a widespread increase in levels of exposure and vulnerability. There are a number of reasons to consider that, in many regions of the globe, weather extremes (e.g. heat waves, droughts, forest fires, intense rainfall, floods and landslides) are becoming both yet more extreme and more frequent. Projections for the future based on climate and impact models point to a further strengthening of this trend. There has already been an increase in rainfall intensity in conditions of a warmer climate, and a continuation of this trend is expected, with adverse consequences for flood risk. However, the development of flood-prone areas and increase in damage potential are often the dominant factors underpinning growing flood damage and flood risk. In warmer climates, an increased risk of river and flash flooding caused by heavy rainfall, as well as an increasing risk of coastal flooding associated with sea level rise can be expected over large areas. By the same token, a reduction in the risk of snowmelt flooding events is projected in the warmer climate. Projections also indicate an increased risk of drought in many areas. The projections for climate change in Poland point to several risks associated with an increase in the frequency, intensity and severity of weather extremes (heat waves, intensive rainfall, flooding and landslides, coastal surges, drought during the growing season and winter, strong winds and pathogens associated with warming). Heat waves will become more frequent, more intense and more troublesome for the ageing population of Poland.

scholarly journals Adaptation of Wetland Rice to Extreme Weather

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 70-77
Author(s):  
Dulbari Dulbari ◽  
Edi Santosa ◽  
Eko Sulistyono ◽  
Yonny Koesmaryono
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Grain Filling ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Strong Wind ◽  
Canopy Architecture ◽  
Weather Events

Climate change is believed to increase the intensity and the frequency of extreme weather events in reference to strong winds and heavy precipitations. The extreme event is defined as strong wind at speed of 50 km.h-1 and rain fall intensity 10 to 20 mm.h-1 or more .  This condition is detrimental to rice production as this may lead to lodging and flooding which normally occurs during the grain filling stage to harvesting resulting in lower yield and grain quality.  The. Simultaneous extreme events and critical rice growth occured more frequently due to increasing cropping season within a year in Indonesia. Therefore, it is important to mitigate and develop adaptation strategies in order to sustain rice production. Efforts to adapt to these extreme environmental conditions are mostly based on genetics and agro ecological approaches. Genetically, rice with strong hills, high aerodynamic with low water retention is desired. Agro-ecological manipulation is conducted through wind break application, planting arrangement to facilitate better sunshine penetration, to manage water level and planting calendar. Availability of weather station in the field is important to improve mitigation and continuous adaptation strategy against extreme weather events. Keywords: plant canopy architecture, climate change, heavy rainfall, lodging, strong wind

Emergence of projected scaled patterns of extreme weather events over Europe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tugba Ozturk ◽  
Dominic Matte ◽  
Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen
Keyword(s):  
Hot Spot ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Simple Scaling

<div><span>In this work, we investigate the scalability of wet and dry persisting conditions over the European domain. For this aim, we have used the EURO-CORDEX ensemble of regional climate projections at 0.11° grid-mesh for daily minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation to analyze future changes in relation with extreme weather events addressing climate warming targets of 1°C, 2°C and 3°C, respectively. A simple scaling with the annual mean global mean temperature change modeled by the driving GCM is applied. We also identify the emergence of the scaled patterns of minimum and maximum temperatures and of wet and dry persisting conditions in relation with certain extreme weather indices. In particular we focus on pattern scaling of extreme temperatures and precipitation over sub-regions over the Mediterranean basin since this region has been identified as a climate change hot spot.</span></div>

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