Asymmetric behavior of tobacco consumption in Spain across the business cycle: a long-term regional analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 391-421
Author(s):  
Juan M. Martín Álvarez ◽  
Alejandro Almeida ◽  
Aida Galiano ◽  
Antonio A. Golpe
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Regional Analysis ◽  
Tobacco Consumption ◽  
Asymmetric Behavior ◽  
The Business Cycle

scholarly journals The business cycle: a definition

2021 ◽  
pp. 205-262
Author(s):  
Tuur Demeester
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Austrian School ◽  
Methodological Framework ◽  
The Core ◽  
Palabras Clave ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Necessary And Sufficient ◽  
Counter Argument

The goal of this article is to properly define the economic phenomenon of the business cycle. The text is rooted in the tradition of the Austrian School of Economics, and the methodological framework builds on concepts developed by Aristotle and Thomas Aquinas. This leads to the development of a few new methodological concepts, such as a re-interpretation of «inflation» and «deflation», and the re-introduction of «imaginary goods» as an important social phenomenon. The core observation of the article is that the business cycle is in fact a subclass of another kind of cycle, the «fraud cycle». Our conclusion is that in order to produce a business cycle, the occurrence of institutional fraud in the sphere of money and banking are both necessary and sufficient. The counter-argument that honest banking can also produce business cycles is refuted in Appendix I. We believe this article is significant in two ways: 1) it provides an unambiguous recipe for the long term extermination of the business cycle; and 2) it helps expand the scope of the Austrian School beyond economics into fields of law and morality. Key words: Business Cycle, Fraud Cycle, Austrian School, money and banking. JEL Classification: B53, B49, D01, K13. Resumen: El objetivo de este artículo es definir apropiadamente el fenómeno económico del ciclo económico. El resto está enraizado en la tradición de la Escuela Austriaca de Economía, y el marco metodológico parte de los conceptos desarrollados por Aristóteles y Tomás de Aquino. Esto conduce al desarrollo de algunos conceptos metodológicos nuevos, tales como la reinterpretación de la «inflación» y la «deflación», y la reintroducción de los «bienes imaginarios» como un fenómeno social importante. La observación central de este artículo es que el ciclo económico es de hecho una subclase de otro tipo de ciclo, el «ciclo del fraude». Nuestra conclusión es que para producir un ciclo económico, la existencia de un fraude institucional en la esfera del dinero y la banca es una condición necesaria y suficiente. El Apéndice I refuta el contra-argumento de que una banca honesta también puede producir ciclos económicos. Creemos que este artículo es significativo por dos motivos: 1) ofrece una receta clara para la eliminación del ciclo económico; y 2) ayuda a expandir el ámbito de la Escuela Austriaca más allá del campo de la Economía hacia los campos del Derecho y la Moralidad. Palabras clave: Ciclo económico, ciclo del fraude, Escuela Austriaca, dinero y banca. Clasificación JEL: B53, B49, D01, K13.

scholarly journals Journal of the History of Economic Thought Preprints - Limits to Arbitrage and Interest Rates: A Debate Between Keynes, Hawtrey and Hicks

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucy BRILLANT
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Thought ◽  
History Of Economic Thought ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Limits To Arbitrage ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Business Cycle

This paper deals with a debate between Hawtrey, Hicks and Keynes concerning the capacity of the central bank to influence the short-term and the long-term rates of interest. Both Hawtrey and Keynes considered the central bank’s ability to influence short-term rates of interest. However, they do not put the same emphasis on the study of the long-term rates of interest. According to Keynes, long-term rates are influenced by future expected short-term rates (1930, 1936), whereas for Hawtrey (1932, 1937, 1938), long-term rates are more dependent on the business cycle. Short-term rates do not have much effect on long-term rates according to Hawtrey. In 1939, Hicks enters the controversy, giving credit to both Hawtrey’s and Keynes’s theories, and also introducing limits to the operations of arbitrage. He thus presented a nuanced view.

LIMITS TO ARBITRAGE AND INTEREST RATES: A DEBATE AMONG KEYNES, HAWTREY, AND HICKS

2018 ◽  
Vol 40 (3) ◽  
pp. 335-351 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucy Brillant
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Short Term ◽  
John Maynard Keynes ◽  
Limits To Arbitrage ◽  
The Business Cycle

This paper deals with a debate among Ralph George Hawtrey, John Richard Hicks, and John Maynard Keynes concerning the capacity of the central bank to influence the short-term and the long-term rates of interest. Both Hawtrey and Keynes considered the central bank’s ability to influence short-term rates of interest. However, they do not put the same emphasis on the study of the long-term rates of interest. According to Keynes, long-term rates are influenced by future expected short-term rates (1930, 1936), whereas for Hawtrey ([1932] 1962, 1937, 1938), long-term rates are more dependent on the business cycle. Short-term rates do not have much effect on long-term rates, according to Hawtrey. In 1939, Hicks enters the controversy, giving credit to both Hawtrey’s and Keynes’s theories, and also introducing limits to the operations of arbitrage. He thus presented a nuanced view.

scholarly journals Monetary and fiscal policy mix connectivity towards the business cycle in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 139-152
Author(s):  
Regina Niken Wilantari ◽  
Imro'atul Husna Afriani
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Policy Mix ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Monetary And Fiscal Policy

This research is based on the magnitude of the influence of monetary and fiscal aspects, namely the money supply, exchange rates, government spending, and taxes on the business cycle in Indonesia. This study aims to examine the effect of the connection between the monetary and fiscal policy mix on the business cycle in Indonesia. For analysis purposes, secondary data was used in the form of time-series data from 1970–2017. The method used is the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to see long-term and short-term relationships. In the estimation results, it is found that in the long-term period, the monetary variables (money supply and exchange rates) and fiscal variables (government expenditures and taxes) have a significant positive effect on the business cycle in Indonesia.In contrast, the monetary variables that have a significant effect in the short-term period are only the amount variable money supply. There are no fiscal variables that have a significant effect on the business cycle in Indonesia. The interaction of monetary and fiscal policies is still effectively implemented in Indonesia.

Business-cycle fluctuations in economic activity

2021 ◽  
pp. 105-125
Author(s):  
Jesper Rangvid
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Growth Trend ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Two Phases

This chapter explains what the business cycle is and what causes business-cycle fluctuations. We call fluctuations in economic activity around the long-term growth trend ‘the business cycle’. The business cycle consists of two phases. The first is a period of strong economic activity. The second, following the first, is a period of weak economic activity. We call the first phase of the business cycle an ‘expansion’ and the second phase a ‘contraction’ or ‘recession’. The chapter explains what causes business cycles, and examines the empirical evidence on the lengths and strengths of the typical business cycle. It finds that expansions typically last longer than recessions. The chapter also shows that the length of expansions has increased during recent decades.

scholarly journals The Allocation of Talent over the Business Cycle and its Long-term Effect on Sectoral Productivity

Economica ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 82 (328) ◽  
pp. 892-911 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Böhm ◽  
Martin Watzinger
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Term Effect ◽  
Sectoral Productivity ◽  
Long Term Effect ◽  
The Business Cycle
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document