Probabilistic patterns of inundation and biogeomorphic changes due to sea-level rise along the northeastern U.S. Atlantic coast

Abstract Context Coastal landscapes evolve in response to sea-level rise (SLR) through a variety of geologic processes and ecological feedbacks. When the SLR rate surpasses the rate at which these processes build elevation and drive lateral migration, inundation is likely. Objectives To examine the role of land cover diversity and composition in landscape response to SLR across the northeastern United States. Methods Using an existing probabilistic framework, we quantify the probability of inundation, a measure of vulnerability, under different SLR scenarios on the coastal landscape. Resistant areas—wherein a dynamic response is anticipated—are defined as unlikely (p < 0.33) to inundate. Results are assessed regionally for different land cover types and at 26 sites representing varying levels of land cover diversity. Results Modeling results suggest that by the 2050s, 44% of low-lying, habitable land in the region is unlikely to inundate, further declining to 36% by the 2080s. In addition to a decrease in SLR resistance with time, these results show an increasing uncertainty that the coastal landscape will continue to evolve in response to SLR as it has in the past. We also find that resistance to SLR is correlated with land cover composition, wherein sites containing land cover types adaptable to SLR impacts show greater potential to undergo biogeomorphic state shifts rather than inundating with time. Conclusions Our findings support other studies that have highlighted the importance of ecological composition and diversity in stabilizing the physical landscape and suggest that flexible planning strategies, such as adaptive management, are particularly well suited for SLR preparation in diverse coastal settings.

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Environmental gradients and complexity in coastal landscape response to sea level rise

CATENA ◽

10.1016/j.catena.2018.05.036 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 169 ◽

pp. 107-118 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Jonathan D. Phillips

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Environmental Gradients ◽

Coastal Landscape ◽

Landscape Response

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Future Coastal Population and Ecosystem Exposure to Sea Level Rise Along the European Coastline

European Journal of Environment and Earth Sciences ◽

10.24018/ejgeo.2020.1.5.80 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 1 (5) ◽

Author(s):

Shrinidhi Ambinakudige

Keyword(s):

Land Cover ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Sea Water ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Coastal Regions ◽

Land Cover Types ◽

Sea Level Anomalies ◽

Significant Area ◽

Global Sea Level

The average global sea level has been predicted to rise anywhere between 0.53–2.5 m by 2100 with some local and regional variations in various climate change scenarios. Relative sea level change along most of the European coastline is similar to the global average. The objective of this paper is to estimate the extent of impact regarding three sea level rise (SLR) scenarios on European coastal regions. First, three inundation models estimate the area affected by the base sea level, 1 m SLR, and 2 m SLR. Then, based on the population and land cover classes in the coastal regions, land cover types and the estimated future population affected by the SLR scenarios are analyzed. This study used an inundation model (EU-DEM v1.1 digital elevation model). Land cover data from CLC2018 and monthly averaged sea level anomalies (SLA) files from 2013 to 2015 were used in the model. In the SLR0 scenario, about 8.7 million people are estimated to be affected at 2100. An estimated 11.6 million people will be affected in the SLR1 scenario; and an estimated 14.8 million people will be affected by the SLR2 scenarios. Arable lands and pastures are the two top land cover classes that will be affected by SLR. However, land under urban fabric and transportation are also two important land cover types affected by SLR which can induce major economic costs to coastal countries. A significant area of underwater bodies and wetlands will come in contact with sea water due to the extreme events caused by SLR.

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Evaluating coastal landscape response to sea-level rise in the northeastern United States: approach and methods

Open-File Report ◽

10.3133/ofr20141252 ◽

2015 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Erika E. Lentz ◽

Sawyer R. Stippa ◽

E. Robert Thieler ◽

Nathaniel G. Plant ◽

Dean B. Gesch ◽

...

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Northeastern United States ◽

Coastal Landscape ◽

Landscape Response

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Contrasting facies patterns between river-dominated and symmetrical wave-dominated delta deposits

Journal of Sedimentary Research ◽

10.2110/jsr.2020.131 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 91 (3) ◽

pp. 262-295

Author(s):

BRIAN J. WILLIS ◽

TAO SUN ◽

R. BRUCE AINSWORTH

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Preferential Flow ◽

Return Flow ◽

Lateral Migration ◽

Littoral Drift ◽

Delta Front ◽

Reference Case ◽

Depositional Processes ◽

The Impact

Abstract Process-physics-based, coupled hydrodynamic–morphodynamic delta models are constructed to understand preserved facies heterogeneities that can influence subsurface fluid flow. Two deltaic systems are compared that differ only in the presence of waves: one river dominated and the other strongly influenced by longshore currents. To understand an entire preserved deltaic succession, the growth of multiple laterally adjacent delta lobes is modeled to define delta axial to marginal facies trends through an entire regressive–transgressive depositional succession. The goal is to refine a facies model for symmetrical wave-dominated deltas (where littoral drift diverges from the delta lobe apex). Because many factors change depositional processes on deltas, the description of the river-dominated example is included to provide a direct reference case from which to define the impact of waves on preserved facies patterns. Both systems display strong facies trends from delta axis to margin that continued into inter-deltaic areas. River-dominated delta regression preserved a dendritic branching of compensationally stacked bodies. Transgression, initiated by sea-level rise, backfilled the main channel and deposited levees and splays on the submerging delta top. Wave-dominated deltas developed dual clinoforms: a shoreface clinoform built as littoral drift carried sediment away from the river month and onshore, and a subaqueous delta-front clinoform composed of sediment accumulated below wave base. Although littoral drift in both directions away from the delta axis stabilized the position of the river at the shoreline, distributary-channel avulsions and lateral migration of river flows across the subaqueous delta top produced heterogeneities in both sets of clinoform deposits. Separation of shoreface and subaqueous delta-front clinoforms across a subaqueous delta top eroded to wave base produced a discontinuity in progradational vertical successions that appeared gradual in some locations but abrupt in others. Littoral drift flows away from adjacent deltas converged in inter-deltaic areas, producing shallow water longshore bars cut by wave-return-flow channels with associated terminal mouth bars. Transgression initiated by sea-level rise initially led to vertical aggradation of wave-reworked sheet sands on the subaqueous delta top and then retreating shoreface barrier sands as the subaerial delta top flooded. Pseudo inter-well flow tests responded to local heterogeneities in the preserved deposits. As expected, abandoned channels in the river-dominated case defined shoreline-perpendicular preferential flow paths and wave-dominated delta deposits are more locally homogeneous, but scenarios for development of more pronounced shore-parallel heterogeneity patterns for wave-influenced deltas are discussed. The results highlight the need to consider the dual clinoform nature of wave-dominated delta deposition for facies prediction and subsurface interpretation.

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Tidal Flat Depositional Response to Neotectonic Cyclic Uplift and Subsidence (1–2 m) as Superimposed on Latest-Holocene Net Sea Level Rise (1.0 m/ka) in a Large Shallow Mesotidal Wave-Dominated Estuary, Willapa Bay, Washington, USA

Journal of Geography and Geology ◽

10.5539/jgg.v10n1p109 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. 109 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Curt D. Peterson ◽

Sandy Vanderburgh

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Tidal Flat ◽

Late Holocene ◽

Columbia River ◽

Small Rivers ◽

Intertidal Flat ◽

Sedimentation Rates ◽

Lateral Migration ◽

Willapa Bay

The late-Holocene record of tidal flat deposition in the large shallow Willapa Bay estuary (43 km in length), located in the Columbia River Littoral Cell (CRLC) system (160 km length), was investigated with new vibracores (n=30) and gouge cores (n=8), reaching 2–5 m depth subsurface. Reversing up-core trends of muddy sand to peaty mud deposits in marginal tidal flat settings demonstrate episodic submergence events resulting from cyclic tectonic uplift and subsidence (1–2 m) in the Cascadia subduction zone. These short-term reversals are superimposed on longer-term trends of overall sediment coarsening-up, which represent the transgression of higher-energy sandy tidal flats over pre-existing lower-energy tidal flat mud and peaty mud deposits in late-Holocene time. Fining-up trends associated with channel lateral migration and accretionary bank deposition occurred only infrequently in the broad intertidal flats of Willapa Bay. Vibracores and gouge cores were dated by 14C (n=16) and paleo-subsidence event contacts (n=17). Vibracore median probability 14C ages ranged from 0 to 6,992 yr BP and averaged 2,174 yr BP. Dated sample ages and corresponding depths of tidal flat deposits yield net sedimentation rates of 0.9–1.2 m ka-1, depending on the averaging methods used. Net sedimentation rates in the intertidal flat settings (~1.0 m ka-1) are comparable to the rate of net sea level rise (~1.0 m ka-1), as based on dated paleo-tidal marsh deposits in Willapa Bay. Reported modern inputs of river sand (total=1.77x104 m3 yr-1), from the three small rivers that flow into Willapa Bay, fall well short of the estimated increasing accommodation space (1.9x105 m3 yr-1) in the intertidal (MLLW-MHHW) setting (1.9x108 m2 surface area) during the last 3 ka, or 3.0 m of sea level rise. The under-supply of tributary sand permitted the influx of littoral sand (1.1x105 m3 yr-1) into Willapa Bay, as based on the net sedimentation rate (~1.0 m ka-1) and textural composition (average 60 % littoral sand) in analyzed core sections (n=179). The long-term littoral sand sink in Willapa Bay’s intertidal setting (55 % of total estuary area) is estimated to be about 5 % of the Columbia River supply of sand to the CRLC system, and about 30% relative to the littoral sand accumulated in barrier spits and beach plains during late-Holocene time. A 2.0 m rise in future sea level could yield a littoral sand sink of 2.2x108 m3 in the Willapa Bay intertidal setting, resulting in an equivalent shoreline retreat of 600 m along a 50 km distance of the barrier spit and beach plains that are located adjacent to the Willapa Bay tidal inlet. Willapa Bay serves as proxy for potential littoral sand sinks in other shallow mesotidal estuary-barrier-beach systems around the world following future global sea level rise.

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Assessment of post-tsunami disaster land use/land cover change and potential impact of future sea-level rise to low-lying coastal areas: A case study of Banda Aceh coast of Indonesia

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction ◽

10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101292 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 41 ◽

pp. 101292 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Ella Meilianda ◽

Biswajeet Pradhan ◽

Syamsidik ◽

Louise K. Comfort ◽

Dedy Alfian ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Cover ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Land Cover Change ◽

Land Use Land Cover ◽

Tsunami Disaster ◽

Potential Impact ◽

Banda Aceh

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Application of STORMTOOLS Coastal Environmental Risk Index (CERI) to Inform State and Local Planning and Decision Making along the Southern RI Shoreline

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering ◽

10.3390/jmse8040295 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 (4) ◽

pp. 295

Author(s):

Malcolm L. Spaulding ◽

Annette Grilli ◽

Chris Damon ◽

Teresa Crean ◽

Grover Fugate

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Rhode Island ◽

Environmental Risk ◽

Structural Damage ◽

Risk Index ◽

Atlantic Coast ◽

Wave Model ◽

Flood Plain ◽

State And Local

STORMTOOLS coastal environmental risk index (CERI) was applied to communities located along the southern coast of Rhode Island (RI) to determine the risk to structures located in the flood plain. CERI uses estimates of the base flood elevation (BFE), explicitly including the effects of sea level rise (SLR); details on the structure types, from the E911 emergency data base/parcel data, and associated first floor elevation (FFE); and damage curves from the US Army Corp of Engineers North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS) to determine the damages to structures for the study area. Surge levels and associated offshore waves used to determine BFEs were obtained from the NACCS hydrodynamic and wave model predictions. The impacts of sea level rise and coastal erosion on flooding were modeled using XBeach and STWAVE and validated by observations at selected locations along the coastline. CERI estimated the structural damage to each structure in the coastal flood plain for 100 yr flooding with SLR ranging from 0 to 10 ft. The number of structures at risk was estimated to increase approximate linearly from 3700 for no SLR to about 8000 for 10 ft SLR, with about equal percentages for each of the four coastal communities (Narragansett, South Kingstown, Charlestown, and Westerly, Rhode Island (RI)). The majority of the structures in the flood plain are single/story residences without (41%) and with (46%) basements (total 87%; structures with basements are the most vulnerable). Less vulnerable are structures elevated on piles with 8.8% of the total. The remaining are commercial structures principally located either in the Port of Galilee and or Watch Hill. The analysis showed that about 20% of the structures in the 100 yr flood plain are estimated to be damaged at 50% or greater. This increases to 55% of structures as SLR rises to 5 ft. At higher SLR values the percent damaged at 50% or greater slowly declines to 45% at 10 ft SLR. This behavior is a result of the number of homes below MSL increasing dramatically as SLR values moves higher than 5 ft and thus being removed from the structures damaged pool. Generalized CERI risk maps have developed to allow the managers to determine the broad risk of siting structures at any location in their communities. CERI has recently become available as a mobile phone App, facilitating the ability of state and local decision makers and the public to determine the risk of locating a selected building type at any location in their communities.

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Relationships between regional coastal land cover distributions and elevation reveal data uncertainty in a sea-level rise impacts model

Earth Surface Dynamics ◽

10.5194/esurf-7-429-2019 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 7 (2) ◽

pp. 429-438 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Erika E. Lentz ◽

Nathaniel G. Plant ◽

E. Robert Thieler

Keyword(s):

Land Cover ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Poor Quality ◽

Data Availability ◽

Data Uncertainty ◽

Coastal Process ◽

Prediction Confidence ◽

Data Error ◽

Landscape Variability

Abstract. Understanding land loss or resilience in response to sea-level rise (SLR) requires spatially extensive and continuous datasets to capture landscape variability. We investigate the sensitivity and skill of a model that predicts dynamic response likelihood to SLR across the northeastern US by exploring several data inputs and outcomes. Using elevation and land cover datasets, we determine where data error is likely, quantify its effect on predictions, and evaluate its influence on prediction confidence. Results show data error is concentrated in low-lying areas with little impact on prediction skill, as the inherent correlation between the datasets can be exploited to reduce data uncertainty using Bayesian inference. This suggests the approach may be extended to regions with limited data availability and/or poor quality. Furthermore, we verify that model sensitivity in these first-order landscape change assessments is well-matched to larger coastal process uncertainties, for which process-based models are important complements to further reduce uncertainty.

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