Evaluating coastal landscape response to sea-level rise in the northeastern United States: approach and methods

Abstract Context Coastal landscapes evolve in response to sea-level rise (SLR) through a variety of geologic processes and ecological feedbacks. When the SLR rate surpasses the rate at which these processes build elevation and drive lateral migration, inundation is likely. Objectives To examine the role of land cover diversity and composition in landscape response to SLR across the northeastern United States. Methods Using an existing probabilistic framework, we quantify the probability of inundation, a measure of vulnerability, under different SLR scenarios on the coastal landscape. Resistant areas—wherein a dynamic response is anticipated—are defined as unlikely (p < 0.33) to inundate. Results are assessed regionally for different land cover types and at 26 sites representing varying levels of land cover diversity. Results Modeling results suggest that by the 2050s, 44% of low-lying, habitable land in the region is unlikely to inundate, further declining to 36% by the 2080s. In addition to a decrease in SLR resistance with time, these results show an increasing uncertainty that the coastal landscape will continue to evolve in response to SLR as it has in the past. We also find that resistance to SLR is correlated with land cover composition, wherein sites containing land cover types adaptable to SLR impacts show greater potential to undergo biogeomorphic state shifts rather than inundating with time. Conclusions Our findings support other studies that have highlighted the importance of ecological composition and diversity in stabilizing the physical landscape and suggest that flexible planning strategies, such as adaptive management, are particularly well suited for SLR preparation in diverse coastal settings.

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Sea-level rise enhances carbon accumulation in United States tidal wetlands

One Earth ◽

10.1016/j.oneear.2021.02.011 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 (3) ◽

pp. 425-433

Author(s):

Ellen R. Herbert ◽

Lisamarie Windham-Myers ◽

Matthew L. Kirwan

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Carbon Accumulation ◽

Tidal Wetlands

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Tidal wetland resilience to sea level rise increases their carbon sequestration capacity in United States

Nature Communications ◽

10.1038/s41467-019-13294-z ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Faming Wang ◽

Xiaoliang Lu ◽

Christian J. Sanders ◽

Jianwu Tang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

United States ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Large Scale ◽

Accumulation Rate ◽

C Sequestration ◽

Tidal Wetlands ◽

Tidal Wetland ◽

Climate Change Scenarios

AbstractCoastal wetlands are large reservoirs of soil carbon (C). However, the annual C accumulation rates contributing to the C storage in these systems have yet to be spatially estimated on a large scale. We synthesized C accumulation rate (CAR) in tidal wetlands of the conterminous United States (US), upscaled the CAR to national scale, and predicted trends based on climate change scenarios. Here, we show that the mean CAR is 161.8 ± 6 g Cm−2 yr−1, and the conterminous US tidal wetlands sequestrate 4.2–5.0 Tg C yr−1. Relative sea level rise (RSLR) largely regulates the CAR. The tidal wetland CAR is projected to increase in this century and continue their C sequestration capacity in all climate change scenarios, suggesting a strong resilience to sea level rise. These results serve as a baseline assessment of C accumulation in tidal wetlands of US, and indicate a significant C sink throughout this century.

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Relative sea-level rise and the conterminous United States: Consequences of potential land inundation in terms of population at risk and GDP loss

Global Environmental Change ◽

10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.09.005 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 23 (6) ◽

pp. 1627-1636 ◽

Cited By ~ 19

Author(s):

Toon Haer ◽

Eugenia Kalnay ◽

Michael Kearney ◽

Henk Moll

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

At Risk ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Relative Sea Level ◽

Population At Risk ◽

Relative Sea Level Rise ◽

Potential Land

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Large-Scale Influences on Summertime Extreme Precipitation in the Northeastern United States

Journal of Hydrometeorology ◽

10.1175/jhm-d-16-0091.1 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 17 (12) ◽

pp. 3045-3061 ◽

Cited By ~ 33

Author(s):

Allison B. Marquardt Collow ◽

Michael G. Bosilovich ◽

Randal D. Koster

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Sea Level ◽

Tropical Cyclones ◽

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Potential Temperature ◽

Northeastern United States ◽

Sea Level Pressure ◽

Level Pressure ◽

Extreme Precipitation Events ◽

Precipitation Events

Abstract Observations indicate that over the last few decades there has been a statistically significant increase in precipitation in the northeastern United States and that this can be attributed to an increase in precipitation associated with extreme precipitation events. Here a state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis is used to examine such events in detail. Daily extreme precipitation events defined at the 75th and 95th percentile from gridded gauge observations are identified for a selected region within the Northeast. Atmospheric variables from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), are then composited during these events to illustrate the time evolution of associated synoptic structures, with a focus on vertically integrated water vapor fluxes, sea level pressure, and 500-hPa heights. Anomalies of these fields move into the region from the northwest, with stronger anomalies present in the 95th percentile case. Although previous studies show tropical cyclones are responsible for the most intense extreme precipitation events, only 10% of the events in this study are caused by tropical cyclones. On the other hand, extreme events resulting from cutoff low pressure systems have increased. The time period of the study was divided in half to determine how the mean composite has changed over time. An arc of lower sea level pressure along the East Coast and a change in the vertical profile of equivalent potential temperature suggest a possible increase in the frequency or intensity of synoptic-scale baroclinic disturbances.

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