Debris flow susceptibility zonation using statistical models in parts of Northwest Indian Himalayas—implementation, validation, and comparative evaluation

Abstract. On 15–16 December 1999, heavy rainfall severely stroke Campania region (southern Italy), triggering numerous debris flows on the slopes of the San Martino Valle Caudina-Cervinara area. Soil slips originated within the weathered volcaniclastic mantle of soil cover overlying the carbonate skeleton of the massif. Debris slides turned into fast flowing mixtures of matrix and large blocks, downslope eroding the soil cover and increasing their original volume. At the base of the slopes, debris flows impacted on the urban areas, causing victims and severe destruction (Vittori et al., 2000). Starting from a recent study on landslide risk conditions in Campania, carried out by the Regional Authority (PAI –Hydrogeological setting plan, in press), an evaluation of the debris-flow susceptibility has been performed for selected areas of the above mentioned villages. According to that study, such zones would be in fact characterised by the highest risk levels within the administrative boundaries of the same villages ("HR-zones"). Our susceptibility analysis has been performed by applying SCIDDICA S3–hex – a hexagonal Cellular Automata model (von Neumann, 1966), specifically developed for simulating the spatial evolution of debris flows (Iovine et al., 2002). In order to apply the model to a given study area, detailed topographic data and a map of the erodable soil cover overlying the bedrock of the massif must be provided (as input matrices); moreover, extent and location of landslide source must also be given. Real landslides, selected among those triggered on winter 1999, have first been utilised for calibrating SCIDDICA S3–hex and for defining "optimal" values for parameters. Calibration has been carried out with a GIS tool, by quantitatively comparing simulations with actual cases: optimal values correspond to best simulations. Through geological evaluations, source locations of new phenomena have then been hypothesised within the HR-zones. Initial volume for these new cases has been estimated by considering the actual statistics of the 1999 landslides. Finally, by merging the results of simulations, a deterministic susceptibility zonation of the considered area has been obtained. In this paper, aiming at illustrating the potential for debris-flow hazard analyses of the model SCIDDICA S3–hex, a methodological example of susceptibility zonation of the Vallicelle HR-zone is presented.

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Debris flow susceptibility assessment based on an empirical approach in the central region of South Korea

Geomorphology ◽

10.1016/j.geomorph.2018.01.025 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 308 ◽

pp. 1-12 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Sinhang Kang ◽

Seung-Rae Lee

Keyword(s):

South Korea ◽

Debris Flow ◽

Central Region ◽

Empirical Approach ◽

Susceptibility Assessment ◽

Debris Flow Susceptibility

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Comparison of Different Machine Learning Methods for Debris Flow Susceptibility Mapping: A Case Study in the Sichuan Province, China

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs12020295 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (2) ◽

pp. 295 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Ke Xiong ◽

Basanta Raj Adhikari ◽

Constantine A. Stamatopoulos ◽

Yu Zhan ◽

Shaolin Wu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Debris Flow ◽

Sichuan Province ◽

Susceptibility Mapping ◽

Boosted Regression Trees ◽

Support Vector ◽

Learning Methods ◽

Machine Learning Methods ◽

Susceptibility Maps ◽

Debris Flow Susceptibility

Debris flow susceptibility mapping is considered to be useful for hazard prevention and mitigation. As a frequent debris flow area, many hazardous events have occurred annually and caused a lot of damage in the Sichuan Province, China. Therefore, this study attempted to evaluate and compare the performance of four state-of-the-art machine-learning methods, namely Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT), for debris flow susceptibility mapping in this region. Four models were constructed based on the debris flow inventory and a range of causal factors. A variety of datasets was obtained through the combined application of remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS). The mean altitude, altitude difference, aridity index, and groove gradient played the most important role in the assessment. The performance of these modes was evaluated using predictive accuracy (ACC) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The results of this study showed that all four models were capable of producing accurate and robust debris flow susceptibility maps (ACC and AUC values were well above 0.75 and 0.80 separately). With an excellent spatial prediction capability and strong robustness, the BRT model (ACC = 0.781, AUC = 0.852) outperformed other models and was the ideal choice. Our results also exhibited the importance of selecting suitable mapping units and optimal predictors. Furthermore, the debris flow susceptibility maps of the Sichuan Province were produced, which can provide helpful data for assessing and mitigating debris flow hazards.

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Debris Flow Susceptibility Assessment and Runout Prediction: A Case Study in Shiyang Gully, Beijing, China

International Journal of Environmental Research ◽

10.1007/s41742-020-00263-4 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 14 (3) ◽

pp. 365-383 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Yongchao Li ◽

Jianping Chen ◽

Yiwei Zhang ◽

Shengyuan Song ◽

Xudong Han ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Debris Flow ◽

Susceptibility Assessment ◽

Beijing China ◽

Debris Flow Susceptibility

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Data Mining and Statistical Approaches in Debris-Flow Susceptibility Modelling Using Airborne LiDAR Data

Sensors ◽

10.3390/s19163451 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 19 (16) ◽

pp. 3451 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Usman Salihu Lay ◽

Biswajeet Pradhan ◽

Zainuddin Bin Md Yusoff ◽

Ahmad Fikri Bin Abdallah ◽

Jagannath Aryal ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Data Mining ◽

Debris Flow ◽

Airborne Lidar ◽

Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines ◽

Slope Aspect ◽

Support Vector ◽

Mountainous Area ◽

Topographic Wetness Index ◽

Conditioning Factors ◽

Debris Flow Susceptibility

Cameron Highland is a popular tourist hub in the mountainous area of Peninsular Malaysia. Most communities in this area suffer frequent incidence of debris flow, especially during monsoon seasons. Despite the loss of lives and properties recorded annually from debris flow, most studies in the region concentrate on landslides and flood susceptibilities. In this study, debris-flow susceptibility prediction was carried out using two data mining techniques; Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) models. The existing inventory of debris-flow events (640 points) were selected for training 70% (448) and validation 30% (192). Twelve conditioning factors namely; elevation, plan-curvature, slope angle, total curvature, slope aspect, Stream Transport Index (STI), profile curvature, roughness index, Stream Catchment Area (SCA), Stream Power Index (SPI), Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) and Topographic Position Index (TPI) were selected from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR)-derived Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data. Multi-collinearity was checked using Information Factor, Cramer’s V, and Gini Index to identify the relative importance of conditioning factors. The susceptibility models were produced and categorized into five classes; not-susceptible, low, moderate, high and very-high classes. Models performances were evaluated using success and prediction rates where the area under the curve (AUC) showed a higher performance of MARS (93% and 83%) over SVR (76% and 72%). The result of this study will be important in contingency hazards and risks management plans to reduce the loss of lives and properties in the area.

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