Uncertainty Modeling of Statistical Downscaling to Assess Climate Change Impacts on Temperature and Precipitation

2017 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 1843-1858 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roja Najafi ◽  
Masoud Reza Hessami Kermani
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Uncertainty Modeling ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Assess Climate Change

scholarly journals Satellites, Self-reports, and Submersion: Exposure to Floods in Bangladesh

2015 ◽  
Vol 105 (5) ◽  
pp. 232-236 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raymond Guiteras ◽  
Amir Jina ◽  
A. Mushfiq Mobarak
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Objective Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Flood Exposure ◽  
Self Reports ◽  
Term Variation

A burgeoning “Climate-Economy” literature has uncovered many effects of changes in temperature and precipitation on economic activity, but has made considerably less progress in modeling the effects of other associated phenomena, like natural disasters. We develop new, objective data on floods, focusing on Bangladesh. We show that rainfall and self-reported exposure are weak proxies for true flood exposure. These data allow us to study adaptation, giving accurate measures of both long-term averages and short term variation in exposure. This is important in studying climate change impacts, as people will not only experience new exposures, but also experience them differently.

scholarly journals Climate change impacts on nutrient loads in the Yorkshire Ouse catchment (UK)

2002 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 197-209 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Bouraoui ◽  
L. Galbiati ◽  
G. Bidoglio
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Nutrient Loads ◽  
Nitrogen And Phosphorus ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This study assessed the impact of potential climate change on the nutrient loads to surface and sub-surface waters from agricultural areas and was conducted using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The study focused on a 3500 km2 catchment located in northern England, the Yorkshire Ouse. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated using sets of five years' measurements of nitrate and ortho-phosphorus concentrations and water flow. To increase the reliability of the hydrological model predictions, an uncertainty analysis was conducted by perturbing input parameters using a Monte-Carlo technique. The SWAT model was then run using a baseline scenario corresponding to an actual measured time series of daily temperature and precipitation, and six climate change scenarios. Because of the increase in temperature, all climate scenarios introduced an increase of actual evapotranspiration. Faster crop growth and an increased nutrient uptake resulted, as did an increase of annual losses of total nitrogen and phosphorus, however, with strong seasonal differences. Keywords: SWAT model, climate change, nutrient loads

scholarly journals A critical analysis of the carbon neutrality assumption in life cycle assessment of forest bioenergy systems

2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weiguo Liu ◽  
Zhen Yu ◽  
Xinfeng Xie ◽  
Klaus von Gadow ◽  
Changhui Peng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Life Cycle Assessment ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Critical Analysis ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Carbon Accounting ◽  
Carbon Neutrality ◽  
Forest Residue ◽  
Assess Climate Change ◽  
Accounting Errors

This study presents a critical analysis regarding the assumption of carbon neutrality in life cycle assessment (LCA) models that assess climate change impacts of bioenergy usage. We identified a complex of problems in the carbon neutrality assumption, especially regarding bioenergy derived from forest residues. In this study, we summarized several issues related to carbon neutral assumptions, with particular emphasis on possible carbon accounting errors at the product level. We analyzed errors in estimating emissions in the supply chain, direct and indirect emissions due to forest residue extraction, biogenic CO2 emission from biomass combustion for energy, and other effects related to forest residue extraction. Various modeling approaches are discussed in detail. We concluded that there is a need to correct accounting errors when estimating climate change impacts and proposed possible remedies. To accurately assess climate change impacts of bioenergy use, greater efforts are required to improve forest carbon cycle modeling, especially to identify and correct pitfalls associated with LCA accounting, forest residue extraction effects on forest fire risk and biodiversity. Uncertainties in accounting carbon emissions in LCA are also highlighted, and associated risks are discussed.

scholarly journals Development of an integrated computational tool to assess climate change impacts on water supply–demand and flood inundation

2013 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 710-730 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pao-Shan Yu ◽  
Tao-Chang Yang ◽  
Chen-Min Kuo ◽  
Shien-Tsung Chen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Assess Climate Change ◽  
Southern Taiwan

This paper aims to propose a decision support system (DSS) for evaluating the climate change impacts on water supply–demand and inundation; and assessing the risks for water shortage and inundation under future scenarios. The proposed DSS framework is universal and flexible, which comprises five modules integrated by a geographic information system platform, including the modules of (1) scenario rainfall and temperature projection under climate change, (2) impact assessment of water supply–demand, (3) impact assessment of inundation, (4) assessment of vulnerability and risk, and (5) adaptation strategy. A case study in southern Taiwan was performed to demonstrate how the DSS provides information on the climate change impacts and risks under future scenarios. The information is beneficial to the authorities of water resources management for understanding the spatial risks for water shortage and inundation, and planning suitable adaptation strategies for the locations with larger risks.

scholarly journals Climate change impacts on agriculture sector: A case study of Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 51 (8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Uzair Ali ◽  
Wang Jing ◽  
Jialin Zhu ◽  
Zhibek Omarkhanova ◽  
Shah Fahad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Agricultural Development ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Influence Factors ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change

ABSTRACT: The current article looks at the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially crop production, and influence factors of agricultural development in terms of their rational use in Pakistan. Due to the dependence of economic development, and agriculture in the South Asian region on access to renewable national resources and the associated vulnerability to climate change, the limited financial and professional resources of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan require a clear definition of national priorities in this area. In the preparation of this article, general scientific cognition methods, in particular, empirical-theoretical methods were used. Grouping and classification methods have been used to process and systematize the data. The ability to change productivity, depending on the variation of the average annual air temperature and the average annual precipitation rate, was considered using a two-factor regression model. The main finding of the study is that temperature and precipitation have a negative impact on agricultural production. This study can provide a scientific justification for the specialization of agricultural production in the regions of Pakistan as well as the execution of the necessary agricultural activities.

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