assess climate change
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2021 ◽  
Vol 937 (2) ◽  
pp. 022108
Author(s):  
U A Nabiev ◽  
G K Ruzumova

Abstract This research was prepared on the basis of an expedition conducted by the Department of Applied Ecology of National University of Uzbekistan in four territories adjacent to the Aral Sea: Karakalpakstan, Bukhara, Khorezm, and Navoi provinces, in particular in 20 cities of Uzbekistan. The expedition was carried out within the framework of the project “Program for adaptation to climate change in the Aral Sea Basin and mitigation of its consequences”, under the auspices and assistance of the International Development Association. Also, the Agency for the Structural Transformation of Agricultural Enterprises and the Consulting Company Intellect management took an active part in the project. The aim of the study was to assess climate change, understanding the impact of dangerous consequences, measures to adapt to climate change in Uzbekistan. To find possible objective and scientific approaches to the application in a broad sense of methods for confrontation in all areas of agricultural activity was also a potential objective of this paper. In addition, within the framework of this program, in 20 cities, local inhabitants were familiarized with the results of this study by conducting lectures, trainings and seminars for representatives of production, farms, workers of agricultural enterprises, scientific researchers, undergraduates, bachelors of higher education in the project area.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan Heneghan ◽  
Jason Everett ◽  
Julia Blanchard ◽  
Patrick Sykes ◽  
Anthony Richardson

Abstract Although zooplankton are the primary energy pathway from phytoplankton to fish, we understand little about how climate change will modify zooplankton communities and their role in marine ecosystems. Using a trait-based marine ecosystem model resolving key zooplankton groups, we assess climate change impacts on zooplankton community composition and implications for marine food webs globally. We find that future oceans favour food webs increasingly dominated by carnivorous (chaetognaths, jellyfish and carnivorous copepods) and gelatinous filter-feeding zooplankton (larvaceans and salps). By providing a direct energetic pathway from small phytoplankton to fish, the rise of gelatinous filter-feeders largely offsets the increase in trophic steps between primary producers and fish from declining phytoplankton production and increasing carnivorous zooplankton. However, our results indicate that future fish communities face not only reduced carrying capacity from falling primary production, but also lower quality diets as environmental conditions increasingly favour gelatinous zooplankton.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 7069
Author(s):  
Andung Bayu Sekaranom ◽  
Emilya Nurjani ◽  
Fitria Nucifera

Productive agricultural areas in Kebumen, Central Java, Indonesia are potentially vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change. We surveyed small-scale farmers to assess climate change-related perceptions and adaptations in the agriculture sector. The majority of the respondents agreed that there were changes in climatological variables affecting their farming activities, especially in terms of precipitation and temperature. However, the results also revealed that only 13% of respondents believed that human activities play a significant role. Three forms of adaptations have been developed by the farmers, namely: (1) agricultural diversification, (2) agricultural intensification, and (3) socioeconomic adaptation. Changing crops to more climate-tolerant varieties was one of the most common agricultural diversification practices (implemented by 88% of farmers). Most of the farmers also tried to maintain agricultural productivity by adjusting a local planting calendar (implemented by 94% of farmers). The use of machinery to intensify farming practice was an uncommon strategy (implemented by only 30% of farmers) because of expensive maintenance and small cultivation areas. The results suggested the importance of increasing farmers’ knowledge and technological know-how related to climate change and its implications, developing effective adaptation and mitigation efforts, and constructing climate-resilient infrastructure in the agricultural sector.


2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 76
Author(s):  
Davide Forcellini

Climate change is modifying scientific attitudes toward pre- and post-event assessments of natural hazards. Unprecedented levels of destruction need renewed focus on addressing and protecting communities forcing the decision makers to change their attention to vulnerability and risk assessment. In particular, society and economy rely heavily on infrastructures, as fundamental links for movement of goods and people, and are extremely vulnerable to multiple hazards (such as droughts, floods, storms, and coastal hazards). In this regard, resilience quantifies the recovery time and procedures to facilitate and enhance pre-hazard and post-hazard event mitigation and emergency response strategies of systems and entire communities. Resilience calculation depends on two important contributions: loss and recovery models that need to consider the effects of climate change. This paper aims to propose a methodology that implements the most recent approaches to assess climate change inside the traditional framework of resilience. The proposed framework is then applied to a case study of a bridge.


2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 42-51
Author(s):  
Mohammed Mohammed ◽  
Salih Omer Tutu ◽  
Hassan Elnour Adam ◽  
Alawia Osman Koli ◽  
Abdalla Nourain Omer Abdalla

The current study was conducted in Bara Locality- North Kordofan - Sudan to assess climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies among agrarian communities. Qualitative and quantitative data were collected by randomly interviewing 150 respondents from ten villages, using questionnaire. Descriptive statistics in SPSS software package and Microsoft Excel were used for data analysis. Results of study showed that agrarian communities, and due to climate change, have enforced to develop ten adaptation strategies suitable for agriculture in dryland conditions. The most adaptation strategies being used by the agrarian communities, are cultivation in different directions locally Sheraik (77%), sowing before rain locally Ramail (77%) and reducing cultivated area as mentioned by 67% of interviewed respondents. In forests sector, around 65 % of the interviewed respondents have been practiced agro-forestry as an adaptation strategy. The interviewees were also able to figure out 6 possible mitigation strategies to stave off climate change effects. These strategies are for example building capacity of agrarian communities (73%) and provision of early mature, high yielding and drought tolerant crops (63%). The study come out with some suggestions in order to pave the way for policymakers to tailor suitable future interventions to mitigate the impact of climate change among agrarian communities.


2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 1259-1276
Author(s):  
Christian Vincent ◽  
Diego Cusicanqui ◽  
Bruno Jourdain ◽  
Olivier Laarman ◽  
Delphine Six ◽  
...  

Abstract. Mass balance observations are very useful to assess climate change in different regions of the world. As opposed to glacier-wide mass balances which are influenced by the dynamic response of each glacier, point mass balances provide a direct climatic signal that depends on surface accumulation and ablation only. Unfortunately, major efforts are required to conduct in situ measurements on glaciers. Here, we propose a new approach that determines point surface mass balances from remote sensing observations. We call this balance the geodetic point surface mass balance. From observations and modelling performed on the Argentière and Mer de Glace glaciers over the last decade, we show that the vertical ice flow velocity changes are small in areas of low bedrock slope. Therefore, assuming constant vertical velocities in time for such areas and provided that the vertical velocities have been measured for at least 1 year in the past, our method can be used to reconstruct annual point surface mass balances from surface elevations and horizontal velocities alone. We demonstrate that the annual point surface mass balances can be reconstructed with an accuracy of about 0.3 m of water equivalent per year (m w.e. a−1) using the vertical velocities observed over the previous years and data from unmanned aerial vehicle images. Given the recent improvements of satellite sensors, it should be possible to apply this method to high-spatial-resolution satellite images as well.


Author(s):  
Dorjsuren Dechinlkhundev ◽  
Munkhtsetseg Zorigt ◽  
Ijiltsetseg Dorjsuren

Abstract To estimate groundwater resources under changing climate is one of the important issues for Ulaanbaatar City in the Tuul river basin of Mongolia. The main water supply is provided from groundwater and demand has been increasing due to the rapid growth of population and economic development. There have not been any complete studies to assess climate change impact on groundwater resources for Ulaanbaatar city. Therefore, in this study we proposed to estimate future potential resources of the groundwater from the main wellfields in the city using the AnAqSim (Analytic Aquifer Simulator) model. The model calibration was performed on 10 wellfields during the reference period from 1960 to 2015. Based on the reliable calibration results for the natural conditions, the impact of climate change on groundwater resources was assessed to use the projected HadCM3 scenario for the periods 2046–2065 and 2080–2099. The results of the study contribute to a water management plan for the city to recommend seasonal abstraction.


Author(s):  
Thu Hong Anh Nguyen ◽  
Huyen Khon Nguyen ◽  
Le Quoc Vy ◽  
Tran Thi Hieu ◽  
Tran Trung Kien ◽  
...  

Aquaculture - belonging to the Fisheries group - is one of the high-value economic sectors, accounting for a large part in the structure of the agriculture, forestry and fishery industry in Vietnam. However, the sustainability of this industry is facing many challenges due to climate change process; An Giang is a province that has long had a strong position in aquaculture in Vietnam and is not out of that influence. Therefore, there is an urgent need to assess climate change vulnerability of aquaculture in An Giang based on the predicted changes in temperature and rainfall of the region according to the change scenarios. climate. Unlike previous studies conducted mainly on a national scale, this paper is mainly concerned with Pangasius (Pangasius is one of the aquatic species with high commercial value, with significant contribution). including livelihoods of people in An Giang province) - species raised in the main production areas of An Giang and assess their vulnerability for each area, using an index-based method and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Definition of Vulnerability to overcome constraints in developing specific adaptation strategies at regional scale. First, for each exposure, sensitivity and adaptability, specific and appropriate indicators are chosen. These indicators are then estimated and weighted to analyze vulnerability to climate change. The results show that the level of vulnerability due to climate change to the pangasius farming industry in An Giang province is at a moderate level, of which Chau Phu district is highly vulnerable because the district has the main livelihood of Pangasius farming.


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