Trend detection in annual maximum temperature and precipitation using the Mann Kendall test – A case study to assess climate change on Anand of central Gujarat

The relation between climate and maize production in Nepal was studied for the period 1970/71-2007/08. Due to the topographical differences within north-south span of the country, Nepal has wide variety of climatic condition. About 70 to 90% of the rainfall occurs during summer monsoon (June to September) and the rest of the months are almost dry. Maize is cultivated from March to May depending on the rainfall distribution. Due to the availability of improved seeds, the maize yield has been steadily increasing after 1987/1988. The national area and yield of maize is estimated to be 870,166ha and 2159kg/ha respectively in 2007/08. The present rate of annual increase of temperature is 0.04°C in Nepal. Trends of temperature rise are not uniform throughout Nepal. An increase of annual temperature at Rampur during 1968-2008 was only 0.039°C. However, at Rampur during the maize growing seasons, March/April - May, the trend of annual maximum temperature had not been changed, but during the month of June and July, the trend of increase of maximum temperature was 0.03°C to 0.04°C /year.Key words: Climate-change; Global-warming; Hill; Mountain; Nepal; TaraiThe Journal of AGRICULTURE AND ENVIRONMENT Vol. 11, 2010Page: 59-69Uploaded Date: 15 September, 2010

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Effect of climate change and deforestation on vector borne diseases in the North-Eastern Indian state of Mizoram bordering Myanmar

10.21203/rs.3.rs-126530/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Balasubramani Karuppusamy ◽

Devojit Kumar Sarma ◽

Pachuau Lalmalsawma ◽

Lalfakzuala Pautu ◽

Krishanpal Karmodiya ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Minimum Temperature ◽

Forest Cover ◽

Kendall Test ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Monsoon Period ◽

Vector Borne Diseases ◽

Sen’S Slope ◽

Mann Kendall Test ◽

Vector Borne

Abstract Background Malaria and dengue are the two major vector-borne diseases in Mizoram. Malaria is endemic in Mizoram, and dengue was first reported only in 2012. It is well documented that climate change has a direct influence on the incidence and spread of vector-borne diseases. The study was designed to study the trends and impact of climate variables (temperature, rainfall and humidity) in the monsoon period (May to September) and deforestation on the incidence of dengue and malaria in Mizoram. Methods Temperature, rainfall and humidity data of Mizoram from 1979–2013 were obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and analyzed. Forest cover data of Mizoram was extracted from India State of Forest Report (IFSR) and Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Centre. Percent tree cover datasets of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer missions were also used to study the association between deforestation and incidence of vector-borne diseases. The study used non-parametric tests to estimate long-term trends in the climate (temperature, rainfall, humidity) and forest cover variables. The trend and its magnitude are estimated through Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope method. Year-wise dengue and malaria data were obtained from the State Vector Borne Disease Control Program, Mizoram. Results The Mann-Kendall test indicates that compared to maximum temperature, minimum temperature during the monsoon period is increasing (p < 0.001). The Sen’s slope estimation also shows an average annual 0.020C (0.01–0.03 at 95% CI) monotonic increasing trend of minimum temperature. The residuals of Sen’s estimate show that temperature is increasing at an average of about 0.10C/year after 2007.Trends indicate that both rainfall and humidity are increasing (p <. 0.001); on an average, there is a 20.45 mm increase in monsoon rainfall per year (5.90–34.37 at 95% CI), while there is a 0.08% (0.02–0.18 at 95% CI) increase in relative humidity annually. IFSR data shows that there is an annual average decrease of 162 sq.km (272.81–37.53 at 95% CI, p < 0.001) in the dense forest cover. Mizoram in 2012 was the last state in India to report the incidence of dengue. Malaria transmission continues to be stable in Mizoram; compared to 2007, the cases have increased in 2019. Conclusion Over the study period, there is an ~ 0.80C rise in the minimum temperature in the monsoon season which could have facilitated the establishment of Aedes aegypti, the major dengue vector in Mizoram. In addition, the increase in rainfall and humidity may have also helped the biology of Ae. aegypti. Deforestation could be one of the major factors responsible for the consistently high number of malaria cases in Mizoram.

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Temporal Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation Trends in Shaheed Benazir Abad Sindh, Pakistan

Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research ◽

10.48084/etasr.1388 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 7 (6) ◽

pp. 2171-2176 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

S. R. Samo ◽

N. Bhatti ◽

A. Saand ◽

M. A. Keerio ◽

D. K. Bangwar

Keyword(s):

Diurnal Temperature Range ◽

Kendall Test ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Linear Regression Method ◽

Positive Trend ◽

Diurnal Temperature ◽

Temperature Range ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Mann Kendall Test ◽

Rainy Days

Temperature and precipitation variations have a huge environmental, social and economic impact. This study aims to analyze the temporal variation of temperature and precipitation in Shaheed Benazir Abad district by using the linear regression method, the trend magnitude, the Mann-Kendall test and the Sen’s estimator of slope. The annual precipitation and monthly temperature data of Shaheed Benazir Abad for the period of 1996-2014 are considered. The result shows that the Diurnal temperature range of all months is decreasing due to the increasing of monthly minimum temperature at a faster rate than the monthly maximum temperature. However, the Diurnal temperature range of extreme events is increasing. The results obtained by using Mann-Kendall test revealed that rainfall exhibits significant positive trend. The trends of rainfall and rainy days show that the amount of rainfall is increasing much more rapidly than that of rainy days which indicates the occurrence of heavy events.

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Attributes for NHDPlus catchments (version 1.1) for the conterminous United States: 30-year average annual maximum temperature, 1971-2000

Data Series ◽

10.3133/dds49029 ◽

2010 ◽

Author(s):

Michael Wieczorek ◽

Andrew E. LaMotte

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Annual Maximum ◽

Annual Maximum Temperature

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Projected Changes in Climate Extremes Using CMIP6 Simulations Over SREX Regions

Earth Systems and Environment ◽

10.1007/s41748-021-00250-5 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 5 (3) ◽

pp. 481-497

Author(s):

Mansour Almazroui ◽

Fahad Saeed ◽

Sajjad Saeed ◽

Muhammad Ismail ◽

Muhammad Azhar Ehsan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Spatial Variability ◽

Extreme Events ◽

First Century ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Annual Maximum ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Projected Change ◽

Twenty First Century ◽

Projected Changes ◽

The Tropics

AbstractThis paper presents projected changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) data for mid-century (2036–2065) and end-century (2070–2099) periods with respect to the reference period (1985–2014). Four indices namely, Annual maximum of maximum temperature (TXx), Extreme heat wave days frequency (HWFI), Annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (RX5day), and Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) were investigated under four socioeconomic scenarios (SSP1-2.6; SSP2-4.5; SSP3-7.0; SSP5-8.5) over the entire globe and its 26 Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) regions. The projections show an increase in intensity and frequency of hot temperature and precipitation extremes over land. The intensity of the hottest days (as measured by TXx) is projected to increase more in extratropical regions than in the tropics, while the frequency of extremely hot days (as measured by HWFI) is projected to increase more in the tropics. Drought frequency (as measured by CDD) is projected to increase more over Brazil, the Mediterranean, South Africa, and Australia. Meanwhile, the Asian monsoon regions (i.e., South Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia) become more prone to extreme flash flooding events later in the twenty-first century as shown by the higher RX5day index projections. The projected changes in extremes reveal large spatial variability within each SREX region. The spatial variability of the studied extreme events increases with increasing greenhouse gas concentration (GHG) and is higher at the end of the twenty-first century. The projected change in the extremes and the pattern of their spatial variability is minimum under the low-emission scenario SSP1-2.6. Our results indicate that an increased concentration of GHG leads to substantial increases in the extremes and their intensities. Hence, limiting CO2 emissions could substantially limit the risks associated with increases in extreme events in the twenty-first century.

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Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability and Food Security of Nepal

Hydro Nepal Journal of Water Energy and Environment ◽

10.3126/hn.v11i1.7206 ◽

2012 ◽

pp. 59-63

Author(s):

Roshan Kumar Mehta ◽

Shree Chandra Shah

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Crop Production ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Monsoon Season ◽

Groundwater Table ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Aquatic Life ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Average Maximum ◽

Water Scarce

The increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere is widely believed to be causing climate change. It affects agriculture, forestry, human health, biodiversity, and snow cover and aquatic life. Changes in climatic factors like temperature, solar radiation and precipitation have potential to influence agrobiodiversity and its production. An average of 0.04°C/ year and 0.82 mm/year rise in annual average maximum temperature and precipitation respectively from 1975 to 2006 has been recorded in Nepal. Frequent droughts, rise in temperature, shortening of the monsoon season with high intensity rainfall, severe floods, landslides and mixed effects on agricultural biodiversity have been experienced in Nepal due to climatic changes. A survey done in the Chitwan District reveals that lowering of the groundwater table decreases production and that farmers are attracted to grow less water consuming crops during water scarce season. The groundwater table in the study area has lowered nearly one meter from that of 15 years ago as experienced by the farmers. Traditional varieties of rice have been replaced in the last 10 years by modern varieties, and by agricultural crops which demand more water for cultivation. The application of groundwater for irrigation has increased the cost of production and caused severe negative impacts on marginal crop production and agro-biodiversity. It is timely that suitable adaptive measures are identified in order to make Nepalese agriculture more resistant to the adverse impacts of climate change, especially those caused by erratic weather patterns such as the ones experienced recently.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/hn.v11i1.7206 Hydro Nepal Special Issue: Conference Proceedings 2012 pp.59-63

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Projections of Twenty-First-Century Climate Extremes for Alaska via Dynamical Downscaling and Quantile Mapping

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology ◽

10.1175/jamc-d-16-0415.1 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 56 (9) ◽

pp. 2393-2409 ◽

Cited By ~ 18

Author(s):

Rick Lader ◽

John E. Walsh ◽

Uma S. Bhatt ◽

Peter A. Bieniek

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Dynamical Downscaling ◽

Climate Extremes ◽

First Century ◽

The Arctic ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Daily Maximum Temperature ◽

Quantile Mapping ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Twenty First Century

AbstractClimate change is expected to alter the frequencies and intensities of at least some types of extreme events. Although Alaska is already experiencing an amplified response to climate change, studies of extreme event occurrences have lagged those for other regions. Forced migration due to coastal erosion, failing infrastructure on thawing permafrost, more severe wildfire seasons, altered ocean chemistry, and an ever-shrinking season for snow and ice are among the most devastating effects, many of which are related to extreme climate events. This study uses regional dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to investigate projected twenty-first-century changes of daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation over Alaska. The forcing data used for the downscaling simulations include the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim; 1981–2010), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 3 (GFDL CM3), historical (1976–2005), and GFDL CM3 representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5; 2006–2100). Observed trends of temperature and sea ice coverage in the Arctic are large, and the present trajectory of global emissions makes a continuation of these trends plausible. The future scenario is bias adjusted using a quantile-mapping procedure. Results indicate an asymmetric warming of climate extremes; namely, cold extremes rise fastest, and the greatest changes occur in winter. Maximum 1- and 5-day precipitation amounts are projected to increase by 53% and 50%, which is larger than the corresponding increases for the contiguous United States. When compared with the historical period, the shifts in temperature and precipitation indicate unprecedented heat and rainfall across Alaska during this century.

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From climate change perception to bottom-up adaptation initiatives: a case study from banana producers of Upper Huallaga basin, Peru

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2341 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Livia Serrao ◽

Lorenzo Giovannini ◽

Luz Elita Balcazar Terrones ◽

Hugo Alfredo Huamaní Yupanqui ◽

Dino Zardi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Annual Rainfall ◽

Banana Plant ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Clear Trend ◽

Bottom Up ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Weather Events

Climatic characteristics and weather events have always conditioned the success of a harvest. Climate change and the associated increase in intense weather phenomena in recent years are making it clearer than ever that agriculture is among the sectors most at risk. Although problems in agriculture are found all over the world, the most vulnerable contexts are those where agriculture is low-tech and rainfed. Here, adaptation strategies are even more urgent to secure the food production. Assuming that the awareness of climate change is the basis for the adoption of adaptation and mitigation strategies, it is interesting to correlate the degree of perception of local inhabitants with their willingness to adopt bottom-up initiatives.The current study focuses on banana producers&#8217; perceptions of climate change in a tropical valley, and the initiatives that farmers adopt to cope with recent intense weather events. The banana plant (Musa Musacae) grows in tropical climates with annual rainfall around 2000 mm and average temperatures around 27&#176;C. The species&#8217; threadlike root system and the weak pseudostem make it particularly vulnerable to wind gusts, which, at speeds higher than 15 m/s, can bend and knock over entire plantations. The increased frequency of convective thunderstorms observed in connection with climate change has made downburst phenomena more frequent and caused greater crop loss.The aim of the present work is to estimate the correlation between banana producers&#8217; perceptions of climate change and their bottom-up initiatives for adaptation. To achieve this goal, the case study of the Upper Huallaga valley, which is located in the Peruvian Amazon region as shown in Figure 1, is analysed. The work was carried out at two levels: (i) we interviewed 73 banana producers in the valley, (ii) we estimated the alterations and trends in temperature and precipitation recorded by the only three available meteorological stations within the valley. Finally, we compared the two databases to evaluate if the perception of the population was confirmed by the data. Most of the surveyed population observed an increase in temperature, consistent with the results of the data analysis, and an increase in precipitation, which was not consistent with observations as these showed a cyclic variation without a clear trend. With regards to the adaptation measures, it was observed that, although a clear majority of the sample surveyed (around 82%) agreed with the existence of climate change, only 46% of them had taken any initiative to counteract adverse events in some way. However, it is important to note that the strategies implemented were all devised and implemented by the farmers themselves. Funding and coordinating the dissemination of these adaptation practices by the local authority through a rural development plan could certainly strengthen the population&#8217;s effort.<img src="https://contentmanager.copernicus.org/fileStorageProxy.php?f=gnp.34e8e7df2cff59382630161/sdaolpUECMynit/12UGE&app=m&a=0&c=59f620ca81f3a3bb7bb44139d499513c&ct=x&pn=gnp.elif&d=1" alt="">Figure 1, On the left side: the Upper Huallaga basin. On the right side: the study area

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Analysis of changes in daily temperature and precipitation extreme in Jakarta on period of 1986-2014

MATEC Web of Conferences ◽

10.1051/matecconf/201822902017 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 229 ◽

pp. 02017

Author(s):

Aulia N. Khoir ◽

R. Mamlu’atur ◽

Agus Safril ◽

Akhmad Fadholi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Temperature Index ◽

Extreme Climate ◽

Rainfall Index ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Precipitation Characteristics ◽

Expert Team ◽

Weather Stations ◽

Climate Events

Climate change due to an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations has led to changes in extreme climate events. IPCC 2007 already predicted that average global temperatures would reach 0.74⁰ C in the last 100 years (1906-2005). A study on the temperature index trends and extreme precipitation in the period of 1986-2014 in Jakarta are represented by 5 weather stations. Daily of maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation data are calculated using RClimDex Software so that temperature and rainfall index data are obtained. The indexes are extreme climate indexes defined by ETCCDMI (Expert Team for Climate Change Detection Monitoring and Indices). The indexes consist of TN10p, TN90p, TX10p, TX90p, TNn, TNx, TXn, TXx, DTR, RX1day, RX5day, RCPTOT, CDD, CWD, and R95p. The purpose of this research is to know the change of temperature and precipitation characteristics from observation result in Jakarta by using index calculation. The results show that Jakarta has number of hot days according to the trends which are generally increasing. It can cause the temperature in Jakarta to get hotter. However, for the rainfall, the upward or downward trend is not significant, so it can be said there is no change in precipitation in Jakarta during 1986-2014.

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