scholarly journals Threshold Dynamics in a Model for Zika Virus Disease with Seasonality

2021 ◽  
Vol 83 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahmoud A. Ibrahim ◽  
Attila Dénes
Keyword(s):  
Zika Virus ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Threshold Dynamics ◽  
Global Dynamics ◽  
Threshold Parameter ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Linear Integral ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Disease Free

AbstractWe present a compartmental population model for the spread of Zika virus disease including sexual and vectorial transmission as well as asymptomatic carriers. We apply a non-autonomous model with time-dependent mosquito birth, death and biting rates to integrate the impact of the periodicity of weather on the spread of Zika. We define the basic reproduction number $${\mathscr {R}}_{0}$$ R 0 as the spectral radius of a linear integral operator and show that the global dynamics is determined by this threshold parameter: If $${\mathscr {R}}_0 < 1,$$ R 0 < 1 , then the disease-free periodic solution is globally asymptotically stable, while if $${\mathscr {R}}_0 > 1,$$ R 0 > 1 , then the disease persists. We show numerical examples to study what kind of parameter changes might lead to a periodic recurrence of Zika.

scholarly journals Threshold Dynamics of a Huanglongbing Model with Logistic Growth in Periodic Environments

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianping Wang ◽  
Shujing Gao ◽  
Yueli Luo ◽  
Dehui Xie
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
Threshold Dynamics ◽  
Global Dynamics ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Linear Integral ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

We analyze the impact of seasonal activity of psyllid on the dynamics of Huanglongbing (HLB) infection. A new model about HLB transmission with Logistic growth in psyllid insect vectors and periodic coefficients has been investigated. It is shown that the global dynamics are determined by the basic reproduction numberR0which is defined through the spectral radius of a linear integral operator. IfR0< 1, then the disease-free periodic solution is globally asymptotically stable and ifR0> 1, then the disease persists. Numerical values of parameters of the model are evaluated taken from the literatures. Furthermore, numerical simulations support our analytical conclusions and the sensitive analysis on the basic reproduction number to the changes of average and amplitude values of the recruitment function of citrus are shown. Finally, some useful comments on controlling the transmission of HLB are given.

scholarly journals Stability Analysis of a Mathematical Model for the Use of Wolbachia to Stop the Spread of Zika Virus Disease

2021 ◽  
Vol 58 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-58
Author(s):  
Michael C. Anyanwu ◽  
Godwin C. Mbah
Keyword(s):  
Stability Analysis ◽  
Aedes Aegypti ◽  
Zika Virus ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
Aegypti Population

Summary The use of wolbachia-infected mosquitoes to stop the spread of zika virus disease is modeled and analyzed. The model consists of a system of 10 ordinary differential equations which describes the dynamics of the disease in the human population, a wolbachia-free Aedes aegypti population, and a wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti population used for disease control. A stability analysis of the disease-free equilibrium is conducted, which shows that it is both locally and globally asymptotically stable when the reproduction number is less than one. The result of the stability analysis shows that the spread of zika virus disease can be stopped, irrespective of the initial sizes of the infected human and mosquito populations, when wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti are introduced in the area where the disease is endemic.

scholarly journals Global dynamics of a Huanglongbing model with a periodic latent period

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
pp. 0
Author(s):  
Yan Hong ◽  
Xiuxiang Liu ◽  
Xiao Yu
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Threshold Dynamics ◽  
Global Dynamics ◽  
Temperature Dependent ◽  
Candidatus Liberibacter ◽  
Effects Of Temperature ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

<p style='text-indent:20px;'>Huanglongbing (HLB) is a disease of citrus that caused by phloem-restricted bacteria of the Candidatus Liberibacter group. In this paper, we present a HLB transmission model to investigate the effects of temperature-dependent latent periods and seasonality on the spread of HLB. We first establish disease free dynamics in terms of a threshold value <inline-formula><tex-math id="M1">\begin{document}$ R^p_0 $\end{document}</tex-math></inline-formula>, and then introduce the basic reproduction number <inline-formula><tex-math id="M2">\begin{document}$ \mathcal{R}_0 $\end{document}</tex-math></inline-formula> and show the threshold dynamics of HLB with respect to <inline-formula><tex-math id="M3">\begin{document}$ R^p $\end{document}</tex-math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><tex-math id="M4">\begin{document}$ \mathcal{R}_0 $\end{document}</tex-math></inline-formula>. Numerical simulations are further provided to illustrate our analytic results.</p>

scholarly journals Global Dynamics of an SIQR Model with Vaccination and Elimination Hybrid Strategies

Mathematics ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (12) ◽  
pp. 328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanli Ma ◽  
Jia-Bao Liu ◽  
Haixia Li
Keyword(s):  
Lyapunov Function ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Global Dynamics ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

In this paper, an SIQR (Susceptible, Infected, Quarantined, Recovered) epidemic model with vaccination, elimination, and quarantine hybrid strategies is proposed, and the dynamics of this model are analyzed by both theoretical and numerical means. Firstly, the basic reproduction number R 0 , which determines whether the disease is extinct or not, is derived. Secondly, by LaSalles invariance principle, it is proved that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when R 0 < 1 , and the disease dies out. By Routh-Hurwitz criterion theory, we also prove that the disease-free equilibrium is unstable and the unique endemic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable when R 0 > 1 . Thirdly, by constructing a suitable Lyapunov function, we obtain that the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and the disease persists at this endemic equilibrium if it initially exists when R 0 > 1 . Finally, some numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the analysis results.

scholarly journals Seasonality Impact on the Transmission Dynamics of Tuberculosis

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yali Yang ◽  
Chenping Guo ◽  
Luju Liu ◽  
Tianhua Zhang ◽  
Weiping Liu
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Autonomous Systems ◽  
Positive Periodic Solution ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Uniform Persistence ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

The statistical data of monthly pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) incidence cases from January 2004 to December 2012 show the seasonality fluctuations in Shaanxi of China. A seasonality TB epidemic model with periodic varying contact rate, reactivation rate, and disease-induced death rate is proposed to explore the impact of seasonality on the transmission dynamics of TB. Simulations show that the basic reproduction number of time-averaged autonomous systems may underestimate or overestimate infection risks in some cases, which may be up to the value of period. The basic reproduction number of the seasonality model is appropriately given, which determines the extinction and uniform persistence of TB disease. If it is less than one, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; if it is greater than one, the system at least has a positive periodic solution and the disease will persist. Moreover, numerical simulations demonstrate these theorem results.

scholarly journals Global Dynamics of Infectious Disease with Arbitrary Distributed Infectious Period on Complex Networks

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Xiaoguang Zhang ◽  
Rui Song ◽  
Gui-Quan Sun ◽  
Zhen Jin
Keyword(s):  
Complex Networks ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Epidemic Models ◽  
Infectious Period ◽  
Global Dynamics ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Sis Epidemic Model ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Theoretical Results ◽  
Disease Free

Most of the current epidemic models assume that the infectious period follows an exponential distribution. However, due to individual heterogeneity and epidemic diversity, these models fail to describe the distribution of infectious periods precisely. We establish a SIS epidemic model with multistaged progression of infectious periods on complex networks, which can be used to characterize arbitrary distributions of infectious periods of the individuals. By using mathematical analysis, the basic reproduction numberR0for the model is derived. We verify that theR0depends on the average distributions of infection periods for different types of infective individuals, which extend the general theory obtained from the single infectious period epidemic models. It is proved that ifR0<1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; otherwise the unique endemic equilibrium exists such that it is globally asymptotically attractive. Finally numerical simulations hold for the validity of our theoretical results is given.

scholarly journals Global proprieties of a delayed epidemic model with partial susceptible protection

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 209-224
Author(s):  
Abdelheq Mezouaghi ◽  
◽  
Salih Djillali ◽  
Anwar Zeb ◽  
Kottakkaran Sooppy Nisar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Threshold Dynamics ◽  
Positive Equilibrium ◽  
Global Dynamics ◽  
Isolation Rate ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

<abstract><p>In the case of an epidemic, the government (or population itself) can use protection for reducing the epidemic. This research investigates the global dynamics of a delayed epidemic model with partial susceptible protection. A threshold dynamics is obtained in terms of the basic reproduction number, where for $ R_0 &lt; 1 $ the infection will extinct from the population. But, for $ R_0 &gt; 1 $ it has been shown that the disease will persist, and the unique positive equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. The principal purpose of this research is to determine a relation between the isolation rate and the basic reproduction number in such a way we can eliminate the infection from the population. Moreover, we will determine the minimal protection force to eliminate the infection for the population. A comparative analysis with the classical SIR model is provided. The results are supported by some numerical illustrations with their epidemiological relevance.</p></abstract>

scholarly journals Dynamics Analysis of an Epidemiological Model with Media Impact and Two Delays

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lianwen Wang ◽  
Yong Li ◽  
Liuyong Pang
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Threshold Dynamics ◽  
Global Dynamics ◽  
Lyapunov Functionals ◽  
Dynamics Analysis ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Media Impact ◽  
Timely Response ◽  
Two Delays ◽  
The Impact

This paper is concerned with exploring the global dynamics of SEIR epidemic model with media impact, which incorporates latency and relapse delays. The permanence of the model is carefully discussed. By suitable Lyapunov functionals, we establish the global stability of the equilibria. It is found that the basic reproduction number completely determines the threshold dynamics of the SEIR model. Finally, the impact of media on the epidemic spread is studied, which reveals that timely response of media and individuals may play a more key role in disease control.

TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL OF AN INFLUENZA MODEL WITH QUARANTINE AND TREATMENT

2012 ◽  
Vol 05 (03) ◽  
pp. 1260011 ◽  
Author(s):  
WEI-WEI SHI ◽  
YUAN-SHUN TAN
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Number Formula ◽  
Parameter Values ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Disease Free

We develop an influenza pandemic model with quarantine and treatment, and analyze the dynamics of the model. Analytical results of the model show that, if basic reproduction number [Formula: see text], the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) is globally asymptotically stable, if [Formula: see text], the disease is uniformly persistent. The model is then extended to assess the impact of three anti-influenza control measures, precaution, quarantine and treatment, by re-formulating the model as an optimal control problem. We focus primarily on controlling disease with a possible minimal the systemic cost. Pontryagin's maximum principle is used to characterize the optimal levels of the three controls. Numerical simulations of the optimality system, using a set of reasonable parameter values, indicate that the precaution measure is more effective in reducing disease transmission than the other two control measures. The precaution measure should be emphasized.

THRESHOLD DYNAMICS IN A PERIODIC SVEIR EPIDEMIC MODEL

2011 ◽  
Vol 04 (04) ◽  
pp. 493-509 ◽  
Author(s):  
JINLIANG WANG ◽  
SHENGQIANG LIU ◽  
YASUHIRO TAKEUCHI
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Dynamical Behavior ◽  
Threshold Dynamics ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Infectious Risk ◽  
Persistence Theory ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

In this paper, we investigate the dynamical behavior of a class of periodic SVEIR epidemic model. Since the nonautonomous phenomenon often occurs as cyclic pattern, our model is then a periodic time-dependent system. It follows from persistence theory that the basic reproduction number is the threshold parameter above which the disease is uniformly persistent and below which disease-free periodic solution is globally asymptotically stable. The threshold dynamics extends the classic results for the corresponding autonomous model. Furthermore, we show that eradication policy on the basis of the basic reproduction number of the autonomous system may overestimate the infectious risk when the disease follows periodic behavior. The according simulation results are also given.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document