Air temperature forecasting using artificial neural network for Ararat valley

Author(s):  
Hrachya Astsatryan ◽  
Hayk Grigoryan ◽  
Aghasi Poghosyan ◽  
Rita Abrahamyan ◽  
Shushanik Asmaryan ◽  
...  
2013 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 384-389

An artificial neural network (ANN) model-based approach was developed and applied to estimate values of air temperature and relative humidity in remote mountainous areas. The application site was the mountainous area of the Samaria National Forest canyon (Greece). Seven meteorological stations were established in the area and ANNs were developed to predict air temperature and relative humidity for the five most remote stations of the area using data only from two stations located in the two more easily accessed sites. Measured and model-estimated data were compared in terms of the determination coefficient (R2), the mean absolute error (MAE) and residuals normality. Results showed that R2 values range from 0.7 to 0.9 for air temperature and from 0.7 to 0.8 for relative humidity whereas MAE values range from 0.9 to 1.8 oC and 5 to 9%, for air temperature and relative humidity, respectively. In conclusion, the study demonstrated that ANNs, when adequately trained, could have a high applicability in estimating meteorological data values in remote mountainous areas with sparse network of meteorological stations, based on a series of relatively limited number of data values from nearby and easily accessed meteorological stations.


2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 209-223
Author(s):  
M. Madhiarasan ◽  
M. Tipaldi ◽  
P. Siano

Artificial neural network (ANN)-based methods belong to one of the most growing research fields within the artificial intelligence ecosystem, and many novel contributions have been developed over the last years. They are applied in many contexts, although some “influencing factors” such as the number of neurons, the number of hidden layers, and the learning rate can impact the performance of the resulting artificial neural network-based applications. This paper provides a deep analysis about artificial neural network performance based on such factors for real-world temperature forecasting applications. An improved back propagation algorithm for such applications is also presented. By using the results of this paper, researchers and practitioners can analyse the encountered issues when applying ANN-based models for their own specific applications with the aim of achieving better performance indexes.


2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. P. Kamoutsis ◽  
A. S. Matsoukis ◽  
K. I. Chronopoulos

Air temperature (T) data were estimated in the regions of Nea Smirni, Penteli, and Peristeri, in the greater Athens area, Greece, using the T data of a reference station in Penteli. Two artificial neural network approaches were developed. The first approach, MLP1, used the T as input parameter and the second, MLP2, used additionally the time of the corresponding T. One site in Nea Smirni, three sites in Penteli, from which two are located in the Pentelikon mountain, and one site in Peristeri were selected based on different land use and altitude. T data were monitored in each site for the period between December 1, 2009, and November 30, 2010. In this work the two extreme seasons (winter and summer) are presented. The results showed that the MLP2 model was better (higher and lower MAE) than MLP1 for the T estimation in both winter and summer, independently of the examined region. In general, MLP1 and MLP2 models provided more accurate T estimations in regions located in greater distance (Nea Smirni and Peristeri) from the reference station in relation to the nearby Pentelikon mountain. The greater distance T estimations, in most cases, were better in winter compared to summer.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marwah Sattar Hanoon ◽  
Ali Najah Ahmed ◽  
Nur’atiah Zaini ◽  
Arif Razzaq ◽  
Pavitra Kumar ◽  
...  

AbstractAccurately predicting meteorological parameters such as air temperature and humidity plays a crucial role in air quality management. This study proposes different machine learning algorithms: Gradient Boosting Tree (G.B.T.), Random forest (R.F.), Linear regression (LR) and different artificial neural network (ANN) architectures (multi-layered perceptron, radial basis function) for prediction of such as air temperature (T) and relative humidity (Rh). Daily data over 24 years for Kula Terengganu station were obtained from the Malaysia Meteorological Department. Results showed that MLP-NN performs well among the others in predicting daily T and Rh with R of 0.7132 and 0.633, respectively. However, in monthly prediction T also MLP-NN model provided closer standards deviation to actual value and can be used to predict monthly T with R 0.8462. Whereas in prediction monthly Rh, the RBF-NN model's efficiency was higher than other models with R of 0.7113. To validate the performance of the trained both artificial neural network (ANN) architectures MLP-NN and RBF-NN, both were applied to an unseen data set from observation data in the region. The results indicated that on either architecture of ANN, there is good potential to predict daily and monthly T and Rh values with an acceptable range of accuracy.


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