Evaluating the impact of climate change on stream flow: integrating GCM, hydraulic modelling and functional data analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (17) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Razzaq Ghumman ◽  
Ateeq-ur-Rauf ◽  
Abdullah Alodah ◽  
Husnain Haider ◽  
Md. Shafiquzzaman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Functional Data Analysis ◽  
Functional Data ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Hydraulic Modelling ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Functional data analysis of models for predicting temperature and precipitation under climate change scenarios

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1748-1765 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Razzaq Ghumman ◽  
Ateeq-ur-Rauf ◽  
Husnain Haider ◽  
Md. Shafiquzamman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Functional Data Analysis ◽  
Functional Data ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Station Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

Abstract Evaluating the impact of climatic change on hydrologic variables is highly important for sustainability of water resources. Precipitation and temperature are the two basic parameters which need to be included in climate change impact studies. Thirty years (1985–2015) climatic data of Astore, a sub-catchment of the Upper Indus River Basin (UIRB), were analyzed for predicting the temperature and precipitation under different climate change scenarios. The station data were compared with the results of two global climate models (GCMs) each with two emission scenarios, including Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5. The Mann–Kendall test and Sen's slope were applied to explore various properties of precipitation and temperature data series for a trend analysis. The commonalities and dissimilarities between the results of various GCMs and the trend of the station data were investigated using the functional data analysis. Two cross distances were estimated on the basis of Euclidean distances between the predicted time series; subsequently, the differences in their first derivatives were used to evaluate their mutual dissimilarities. The long-term predictions by GCMs show a decreasing trend in precipitation and a slight increase in temperature in some seasons. The result of GCMs under both the emission scenarios showed almost the same pattern of changes in the two hydrologic variables throughout the century with their values reporting slightly higher for the RCP8.5 scenario as compared to those for RCP2.6. Validation of the GCM results using GCM-CSIRO-Mk3.6 revealed an overall agreement between the different models. The dissimilarity analysis manifested the difference between the results of temperature predicted by various GCMs.

Impact of Climate Change on the Spatiotemporal Distribution of Stream Flow and Sediment Yield of Darbandikhan Watershed, Iraq

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (2A) ◽  
pp. 265-276
Author(s):  
Mahmoud S. Al- Khafaji ◽  
Rana D. Al- Chalabi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sediment Yield ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Base Period ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
The Impact

The impact of climate change on stream flow and sediment yield in Darbandikhan Watershed is an important challenge facing the water resources in Diyala River, Iraq. This impact was investigated using five Global Circulation Models (GCM) based climate change projection models from the A1B scenario of medium emission. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to compute the temporal and spatial distribution of streamflow and sediment yield of the study area for the period 1984 to 2050. The daily-observed flow recorded in Darbandikhan Dam for the period from 1984 to 2013 was used as a base period for future projection. The initial results of SWAT were calibrated and validated using SUFI-2 of the SWAT-CUP program in daily time step considering the values of the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) coefficient of determination (R2) as a Dual objective function. Results of NSE and R2 during the calibration (validation) periods were equal to 0.61 and 0.62(0.53 and 0.68), respectively. In addition, the average future prediction for the five climate models indicated that the average yearly flow and sediment yield in the watershed would decrease by about 49% and 44%, respectively, until the year 2050 compared with these of the base period from 1984 to 2013. Moreover, spatial analysis shows that 89.6 % and 90 % of stream flow and sediment come from the Iranian part of Darbandikhan watershed while the remaining small percent comes from Iraq, respectively. However, the middle and southern parts of Darbandikhan Watershed contribute by most of the stream...

scholarly journals Solving the problem of hydrometeorological data analysis by random process

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (K2) ◽  
pp. 101-106
Author(s):  
Dam Ton Duong ◽  
Cuong Kien Dang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Random Process ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Domain Of Attraction ◽  
Main Method ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Extreme Distributions

The paper reviews the hydrometeorological data analysis (precipitation, flow, water level, etc.) to evaluate and predict mutations such as flood, drought and saline extremes to reduce the impact of climate change on the economy and life. The main method for solving the problem posed is the max-domain of attraction of extreme distributions with the Gumbel copula of random variables related to hydrometeorological data. Results presented in this paper are reviewed and verified through data supplied by hydrometeorological stations at the Tan Chau and Chau Doc districts, An Giang province from 1990 to present

HOW CLIMATE CHANGE CAN INFLUENCE THE AGRICULTURE IN UKRAINE: A REVIEW

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Maidanovych ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Soil Surface ◽  
Winter Period ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Resource Saving ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Average Annual Temperature ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this work is to review and analyze the main results of modern research on the impact of climate change on the agro-sphere of Ukraine. Results. Analysis of research has shown that the effects of climate change on the agro-sphere are already being felt today and will continue in the future. The observed climate changes in recent decades have already significantly affected the shift in the northern direction of all agro-climatic zones of Europe, including Ukraine. From the point of view of productivity of the agro-sphere of Ukraine, climate change will have both positive and negative consequences. The positives include: improving the conditions of formation and reducing the harvesting time of crop yields; the possibility of effective introduction of late varieties (hybrids), which require more thermal resources; improving the conditions for overwintering crops; increase the efficiency of fertilizer application. Model estimates of the impact of climate change on wheat yields in Ukraine mainly indicate the positive effects of global warming on yields in the medium term, but with an increase in the average annual temperature by 2 ° C above normal, grain yields are expected to decrease. The negative consequences of the impact of climate change on the agrosphere include: increased drought during the growing season; acceleration of humus decomposition in soils; deterioration of soil moisture in the southern regions; deterioration of grain quality and failure to ensure full vernalization of grain; increase in the number of pests, the spread of pathogens of plants and weeds due to favorable conditions for their overwintering; increase in wind and water erosion of the soil caused by an increase in droughts and extreme rainfall; increasing risks of freezing of winter crops due to lack of stable snow cover. Conclusions. Resource-saving agricultural technologies are of particular importance in the context of climate change. They include technologies such as no-till, strip-till, ridge-till, which make it possible to partially store and accumulate mulch on the soil surface, reduce the speed of the surface layer of air and contribute to better preservation of moisture accumulated during the autumn-winter period. And in determining the most effective ways and mechanisms to reduce weather risks for Ukrainian farmers, it is necessary to take into account the world practice of climate-smart technologies.

The impact of climate change on birds: a review

2012 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 108-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wu Weiwei ◽  
Xu Haigen ◽  
Wu Jun ◽  
Cao Mingchang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact
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