scholarly journals Economics of species change subject to risk of climate change and increasing information: a (quasi-)option value analysis

2013 ◽  
Vol 71 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-290 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marielle Brunette ◽  
Sandrine Costa ◽  
Franck Lecocq
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Option Value ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Species Change

Reevaluation of Design Waves Off the Western Indian Coast Considering Climate Change

2016 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 88-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pentapati Satyavathi ◽  
Makarand C. Deo ◽  
Jyoti Kerkar ◽  
Ponnumony Vethamony
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Generalized Pareto Distribution ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Wave Data

AbstractKnowledge of design waves with long return periods forms an essential input to many engineering applications, including structural design and analysis. Such extreme or long-term waves are conventionally evaluated using observed or hindcast historical wave data. Globally, waves are expected to undergo future changes in magnitude and behavior as a result of climate change induced by global warming. Considering future climate change, this study attempts to reevaluate significant wave height (Hs) as well as average spectral wave period (Tz) with a return period of 100 years for a series of locations along the western Indian coastline. Historical waves are simulated using a numerical wave model forced by wind data extracted from the archives of the National Center for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research, while future wave data are generated by a state-of-the-art Canadian general circulation model. A statistical extreme value analysis of past and projected wave data carried out with the help of the generalized Pareto distribution showed an increase in 100-year Hs and Tz along the Indian coastline, pointing out the necessity to reconsider the safety of offshore structures in the light of global warming.

Supply Chain Flexible Production Capacity Value Analysis -Based on the View of Real Options

2011 ◽  
Vol 135-136 ◽  
pp. 975-982
Author(s):  
Long Hua Yang ◽  
Dan Ning Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Information Flow ◽  
Production Capacity ◽  
Flexible Production ◽  
Option Value ◽  
Parameter Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Matlab Programming

The flagship firm in the supply chain integrates resources through SCM (Supply chain Management), optimizing the information flow，logistics and capital flow in the supply chain to obtain long-term competitive advantage and enable firm to enhance market response and competitive capacity. It has many abilities to get economy rent through implementation of SCM, flexible production capacity is one of those abilities. Based on the view of real options, this paper regarded this ability as a call option. Construct a model to analysis the value of flexible production capacity. Calculate the option value using Monte Carlo simulation，Matlab programming. Illustrate a numerical example and make a parameter sensitivity analysis.

HURRY UP OR WAIT: ARE PRIVATE INVESTMENTS IN CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION DELAYED?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
CHARLES SIMS ◽  
SARAH E. NULL ◽  
JOSUE MEDELLIN-AZUARA ◽  
AUGUSTINA ODAME
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Central Valley ◽  
Water Saving ◽  
Adaptation Option ◽  
Option Value ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Adaptation Potential ◽  
Private Investments ◽  
The Cost

Adaptation gaps arise when observed adaptation to climate change is slower than perceived adaptation potential. Two common explanations for adaptation gaps are (1) private parties failing to recognize that the climate is changing and (2) the cost of adaptation is higher than commonly believed. This paper shows how these two explanations are linked and that the likelihood and duration of adaptation gaps depend on whether climate change is characterized by stationary or non-stationary dynamics. Using an investment in water-saving irrigation in California’s Central Valley as an illustrative example, we find little evidence that failing to account for climate change would explain adaptation gaps. A more likely explanation for adaptation gaps is a failure to account for the adaptation option value that arises due to the possibility of maladaptation.

scholarly journals A comparative ideotype, yield component and cultivation value analysis for spring wheat adaptation in Finland

2012 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 384-408 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heikki Laurila ◽  
Pirjo Mäkelä ◽  
Jouko Kleemola ◽  
Jari Peltonen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Elevated Co2 ◽  
Spring Wheat ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Yield Component ◽  
Yield Potential ◽  
Wheat Crop ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Wheat Genotypes ◽  
Growing Conditions

In this study Mixed structural covariance, Path and Cultivation Value analyses and the CERES-Wheat crop model were used to evaluate vegetation and yield component variation affecting yield potential between different high-latitude (> 60° N lat.) and mid-European (< 60° N lat.) spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) genotypes currently cultivated in southern Finland. Path modeling results from this study suggest that especially grains/ear, harvest index (HI) and maximum 1000 kernel weight were significant factors defining the highest yield potential. Mixed and Cultivation value modeling results suggest that when compared with genotypes introduced for cultivation before 1990s, modern spring wheat genotypes have a significantly higher yielding capacity, current high yielding mid-European genotypes even exceeding the 5 t ha-1 non-potential baseline yield level (yb). Because of a forthcoming climate change, the new high yielding wheat genotypes have to adapt for elevated temperatures and atmospheric CO2 growing conditions in northern latitudes. The optimized ideotype profiles derived from the generic high-latitude and mid-European genotypes are presented in the results. High-latitude and mid-European ideotype profiles with factors estimating the effects of concurrent elevated CO2 and temperature levels with photoperiodical daylength effects can be utilized when designing future high yielding ideotypes adapted to future growing conditions. The CERES-Wheat ideotype modeling results imply, that with new high yielding mid-European ideotypes, the non-potential baseline yield (yb) would be on average 5150 kg ha-1 level (+ 108 %) vs. new high-latitude ideotypes (yb 4770 kg ha-1, 100%) grown under the elevated CO2(700ppm)×temperature(+3ºC) growing conditions projected by the year 2100 climate change scenario in southern Finland.

scholarly journals Nonstationary Extreme Value Analysis of Nearshore Sea-State Parameters under the Effects of Climate Change: Application to the Greek Coastal Zone and Port Structures

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 817
Author(s):  
Panagiota Galiatsatou ◽  
Christos Makris ◽  
Yannis Krestenitis ◽  
Panagiotis Prinos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Extreme Wave ◽  
Sea State ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Wave Characteristics ◽  
Failure Probabilities

In the present work, a methodological framework, based on nonstationary extreme value analysis of nearshore sea-state parameters, is proposed for the identification of climate change impacts on coastal zone and port defense structures. The applications refer to the estimation of coastal hazards on characteristic Mediterranean microtidal littoral zones and the calculation of failure probabilities of typical rubble mound breakwaters in Greek ports. The proposed methodology hinges on the extraction of extreme wave characteristics and sea levels due to storm events affecting the coast, a nonstationary extreme value analysis of sea-state parameters and coastal responses using moving time windows, a fitting of parametric trends to nonstationary parameter estimates of the extreme value models, and an assessment of nonstationary failure probabilities on engineered port protection. The analysis includes estimation of extreme total water level (TWL) on several Greek coasts to approximate the projected coastal flooding hazard under climate change conditions in the 21st century. The TWL calculation considers the wave characteristics, sea level height due to storm surges, mean sea level (MSL) rise, and astronomical tidal ranges of the study areas. Moreover, the failure probabilities of a typical coastal defense structure are assessed for several failure mechanisms, considering variations in MSL, extreme wave climates, and storm surges in the vicinity of ports, within the framework of reliability analysis based on the nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The methodology supports the investigation of future safety levels and possible periods of increased vulnerability of the studied structure to different ultimate limit states under extreme marine weather conditions associated with climate change, aiming at the development of appropriate upgrading solutions. The analysis suggests that the assumption of stationarity might underestimate the total failure probability of coastal structures under future extreme marine conditions.

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