Adaptation Potential of Current Wheat Cultivars and Planting Dates under the Changing Climate in Ethiopia

Global warming poses a severe threat to food security in developing countries. In Ethiopia, the primary driver of low wheat productivity is attributed to climate change. Due to the sparsity of observation data, climate-related impact analysis is poorly understood, and the adaptation strategies studied so far have also been insufficient. This study adopted the most popular DSSAT CERES-Wheat model and the ensemble mean of four GCMs to examine the quantitative effects of adjusted sowing dates and varieties on wheat yield. The two new cultivars (Dandaa and Kakaba), with reference to an old cultivar (Digelu), were considered for the mid-century (2036–2065) and late-century (2066–2095) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios. The results showed that the Dandaa cultivar demonstrates better adaptation potential at late sowing with a yield increase of about 140 kg/ha to 148 kg/ha for the mid- and late-century under RCP4.5. However, under RCP 8.5, Kakaba demonstrates higher adaptation potential with a yield gain for early sowing of up to 142 kg/ha and 170 kg/ha during the mid- and late-century, respectively. Late sowing of the Dandaa cultivar is recommended if GHG emissions are cut off at least to the average scenario, while the Kakaba cultivar is the best option when the emissions are high. The adaptation measures assessed in this study could help to enhance wheat production and adaptability of wheat to the future climate.

Increased labor losses and decreased adaptation potential in a warmer world

Working in hot and potentially humid conditions creates health and well-being risks that will increase as the planet warms. It has been proposed that workers could adapt to increasing temperatures by moving labor from midday to cooler hours. Here, we use reanalysis data to show that in the current climate approximately 30% of global heavy labor losses in the workday could be recovered by moving labor from the hottest hours of the day. However, we show that this particular workshift adaptation potential is lost at a rate of about 2% per degree of global warming as early morning heat exposure rises to unsafe levels for continuous work, with worker productivity losses accelerating under higher warming levels. These findings emphasize the importance of finding alternative adaptation mechanisms to keep workers safe, as well as the importance of limiting global warming.

HURRY UP OR WAIT: ARE PRIVATE INVESTMENTS IN CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION DELAYED?

Adaptation gaps arise when observed adaptation to climate change is slower than perceived adaptation potential. Two common explanations for adaptation gaps are (1) private parties failing to recognize that the climate is changing and (2) the cost of adaptation is higher than commonly believed. This paper shows how these two explanations are linked and that the likelihood and duration of adaptation gaps depend on whether climate change is characterized by stationary or non-stationary dynamics. Using an investment in water-saving irrigation in California’s Central Valley as an illustrative example, we find little evidence that failing to account for climate change would explain adaptation gaps. A more likely explanation for adaptation gaps is a failure to account for the adaptation option value that arises due to the possibility of maladaptation.

DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF AN INDUSTRY 4.0 ADAPTATION POTENTIAL SCALE (4IRAPS)

The aim of this study was to develop a scale that can measure the potential of adapting to Industry 4.0, which refers to the fourth industrial revolution described as a combination of the innovation of various digital technologies rapidly developed in recent years. In addition, the reliability and validity of the Industry 4.0 Adaptation Potential (4IRAPS) is demonstrated. This research was conducted in two stages of a pilot and a main study. The data was collected from 174 participants enrolled in technical and management departments at the graduate and associate degree levels of two different universities. A 50-item questionnaire concerning Industry 4.0 prepared by experts experienced in this field was applied to the participants. As a result of a factor analysis, 30 items and 11 subscales with low a factor load and reliability level were removed from the questionnaire. The reliability and validity of 4IRAPS were verified by” the analyses via PLS-SEM. Finally, the remaining four sub-dimensions referring to Industry 4.0 were labelled as interested, effort for adaptation, readiness, and pessimism. This study developed the first scale of the industry 4.0 adaptation potential. The scale consists of four sub-dimensions and 17 items. It was determined that this scale was statistically reliable and valid.

Expression of adaptation potential by cultivars of highbush blueberry when introduced to Belarusian Polesia

Highbush blueberry is a group of endemic species from North America. Its introduction to Belarusian Polesia is associated with transfer of cultivars of this group into an environment with a harsher climate. Adaptive capacity of highbush blueberry allowed its cultivars to adapt to the new environment, fully develop their fruits and complete their vegetation cycle. The property of the plants to fully utilize the time of their vegetation period manifested as shortening of the completion of the main phenophases due to the influence of the temperature factor. In an introduced environment the speed of the phenophases significantly depended on the peak day temperatures, which allowed the cultivars to successfully develop their fruits in an environment where they don’t receive sufficient heat during the vegetation period, as well as to complete the vegetation cycle.