Modelling and analysis impact of El Nino and IOD to land and forest fire using polynomial and generalized logistic function: cases study in South Sumatra and Kalimantan, Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sri Nurdiati ◽  
Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan ◽  
Mochamad T. Julianto ◽  
Pandu Septiawan ◽  
Fadillah Rohimahastuti
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Logistic Function ◽  
Cases Study

scholarly journals Spatial and Temporal Analysis of El Niño Impact on Land and Forest Fire in Kalimantan and Sumatra

Agromet ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Sri Nurdiati ◽  
Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan ◽  
Pandu Septiawan
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Function Analysis ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Patterns ◽  
El Niño Event ◽  
Dry Spell ◽  
The Impact

Land and forest fires in Kalimantan and Sumatra, Indonesia occurred annually at different magnitude and duration. Climate and sea interaction, like El Niño, influences the severity of dry seasons preceding the fires. However, research on the influence of El Niño intensity to fire regime in Kalimantan and Sumatra is limited. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of the effects of El Niño intensity on land and forest fires in fire-prone provinces in Indonesia. Here, we applied the empirical orthogonal function analysis based on singular value decomposition to determine the dominant patterns of hotspots and rainfall data that evolve spatially and temporally. For analysis, the study required the following data: fire hotspots, dry-spell, and rainfall for period 2001-2019. This study revealed that El Niño intensity had a different impacts for each province. Generally, El Niño will influence the severity of forest fire events in Indonesia. However, we found that the impact of El Niño intensity varied for Kalimantan, South Sumatra, and Riau Province. Kalimantan was the most sensitive province to the El Niño event. The duration and number of hotspots in Kalimantan increased significantly even in moderate El Niño event. This was different for South Sumatra, where the duration and number of hotspots only increased significantly when a strong El Niño event occurred.

Investigating El Nino Southern Oscillation as the main driver of forest fire in Kalimantan

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika ◽  
◽  
I Made Oka Guna Antara ◽  
I Wayan Gede Astawa Karang ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Main Driver

scholarly journals Prediction of Seasonal Forest Fire Severity in Canada from Large-Scale Climate Patterns

2011 ◽  
Vol 50 (4) ◽  
pp. 785-799 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amir Shabbar ◽  
Walter Skinner ◽  
Mike D. Flannigan
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Percent Correct ◽  
Prairie Provinces

AbstractAn empirical scheme for predicting the meteorological conditions that lead to summer forest fire severity for Canada using the multivariate singular value decomposition (SVD) has been developed for the 1953–2007 period. The levels and sources of predictive skill have been estimated using a cross-validation design. The predictor fields are global sea surface temperatures (SST) and Palmer drought severity index. Two consecutive 3-month predictor periods are used to detect evolving conditions in the predictor fields. Correlation, mean absolute error, and percent correct verification statistics are used to assess forecast model performance. Nationally averaged skills are shown to be statistically significant, which suggests that they are suitable for application to forest fire prediction and for management purposes. These forecasts average a 0.33 correlation skill across Canada and greater than 0.6 in the forested regions from the Yukon, through northern Prairie Provinces, northern Ontario, and central Quebec into Newfoundland. SVD forecasts generally outperform persistence forecasts. The importance of the leading two SVD modes to Canadian summer forest fire severity, accounting for approximately 95% of the squared covariance, is emphasized. The first mode relates strongly to interdecadal trend in global SST. Between 1953 and 2007 the western tropical Pacific, the Indian, and the North Atlantic Oceans have tended to warm while the northeastern Pacific and the extreme Southern Hemisphere oceans have shown a cooling trend. During the same period, summer forest fire exhibited increased severity across the large boreal forest region of Canada. The SVD diagnostics also indicate that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Pacific decadal oscillation play a significant role in Canadian fire severity. Warm episodes (El Niño) tend to be associated with severe fire conditions over the Yukon, parts of the northern Prairie Provinces, and central Quebec. The linearity of the SVD manifests opposite response during the cold (La Niña) events.

scholarly journals Drought Modulated Boreal Forest Fire Occurrence and Linkage with La Nina Events in Altai Mountains, Northwest China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunming Shi ◽  
Ying Liang ◽  
Cong Gao ◽  
Fengjun Zhao ◽  
Qiuhua Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Drought Stress ◽  
Boreal Forest ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Boreal Forests ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
La Nina

Warming-induced drought stress and El Nino associated summer precipitation failure are responsible for increased forest fire intensities of tropical and temperate forests in Asia and Australia. However, both effects are unclear for boreal forests, the largest biome and carbon stock over land. Here we combined fire frequency, burned area and climate data in the Altai boreal forests, the southmost extension of Siberia boreal forest into China, and explored their link with ENSO (El Nino and South Oscillation). Surprisingly, both summer drought severity and fire occurrence have shown significant (P<0.05) teleconnections with La Nina events of the previous year, and therefore provide an important reference for forest fire prediction and prevention in Altai. Despite a significant warming trend, the increased moisture over Altai has largely offset the effect of warming-induced drought stress, and lead to an insignificant fire frequency trend in the last decades, and largely reduced burned area since the 1980s. The reduced burned area could also benefit from the fire suppression efforts and greatly increased investment in fire prevention since 1987.

scholarly journals Forest Understory Fire in the Brazilian Amazon in ENSO and Non-ENSO Years: Area Burned and Committed Carbon Emissions

2006 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ane Alencar ◽  
Daniel Nepstad ◽  
Mariadel Carmen Vera Diaz
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Brazilian Amazon ◽  
Forest Understory ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Area Burned ◽  
Brazilian Amazon Region ◽  
Average Rainfall ◽  
Study Sites

Abstract Understory fires, which burn the floor of standing forests, are one of the most important types of forest impoverishment in the Amazon, especially during the severe droughts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes. However, the authors are aware of no estimates of the areal extent of these fires for the Brazilian Amazon and, hence, of their contribution to Amazon carbon fluxes to the atmosphere. In this paper, the area of forest understory fires for the Brazilian Amazon region is calculated during an El Niño (1998) and a non–El Niño (1995) year based on forest fire scars mapped with satellite images for three locations in eastern and southern Amazonia, where deforestation is concentrated. The three study sites represented a gradient of both forest types and dry season severity. The burning scar maps were used to determine how the percentage of forest that burned varied with distance from agricultural clearings. These spatial functions were then applied to similar forest/climate combinations outside of the study sites to derive an initial estimate for the Brazilian Amazon. Ninety-one percent of the forest area that burned in the study sites was within the first kilometer of a clearing for the non-ENSO year and within the first four kilometers for the ENSO year. The area of forest burned by understory forest fire during the severe drought (ENSO) year (3.9 × 106 ha) was 13 times greater than the area burned during the average rainfall year (0.2 × 106 ha), and twice the area of annual deforestation. Dense forest was, proportionally, the forest type most affected by understory fires during the El Niño year, while understory fires were concentrated in transitional forests during the year of average rainfall. The estimate here of aboveground tree biomass killed by fire ranged from 0.049 to 0.329 Pg during the ENSO and from 0.003 to 0.021 Pg during the non-ENSO year.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Fenomena El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Terhadap Peningkatan Ozon Troposferik di Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatimah Dinan Qonitan
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Ozone Concentration ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Background Concentration ◽  
Positive Anomaly ◽  
Large Numbers

ABSTRAKOzon troposferik merupakan polutan sekunder yang bersifat racun bagi manusia. Beberapa penelitian menemukan terjadinya peningkatan konsentrasi ozon di troposfer selama periode El Nino pada tahun 1997/1998 dan 2006 di Indonesia. Studi ini berisi kajian dan sintesis berbagai literatur ilmiah untuk mengetahui aspek-aspek yang mempengaruhi peningkatan konsentrasi ozon troposferik di periode tersebut. Peningkatan ozon rata-rata diketahui dengan membandingkan konsentrasi latar belakang total ozon pada tahun-tahun normal dengan periode El Nino 1997/1998 dan 2006. Peningkatan ozon terutama terjadi di musim kering pada periode El Nino, ketika terjadi penurunan tingkat presipitasi yang signifikan dan kebakaran hutan besar di Indonesia. Pada El-Nino 1997/1998 terjadi anomali positif konsentrasi ozon troposferik sebesar 10-20 DU, sedangkan pada El-Nino 2006 sebesar 10-15 DU. Peristiwa kebakaran hutan ini mengemisikan prekursor pembentuk ozon (O3) dalam jumlah besar, diantaranya adalah karbon monoksida (CO) dan Nitrogen Oksida (NOx).Kata kunci: El Nino, ENSO, Indonesia, Kebakaran, Tropospheric OzoneABSTRACTTropospheric ozone is a secondary pollutant that is toxic to humans. Several studies have found an increase in ozone concentration in the troposphere during periods of 1997/1998 and 2006 El Nino in Indonesia. This study intends to review and synthesize earlier research to determine important aspects affecting increase of tropospheric ozone concentration during those period. Average tropospheric ozone increase was estimated by subtracting the background concentration of total ozone during the normal years on 1997/1998 and 2006 El Nino periods. Significant increase tropospheric ozone mostly occurred in the dry season during the El Nino periods when the precipitation decreased significantly and extensive forest fire occurred frequently in Indonesia. During the 1997/1998 El-Nino, there is positive anomaly of tropospheric ozone by 10-20 DU, and 10-15 DU in 2006 El Nino. Forest fires event emit large numbers of ozone (O3)-forming precursors, such as carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NOx).Keywords: El Nino, ENSO, Forest Fire, Indonesia, Tropospheric Ozone

scholarly journals Forest Change Monitoring and Environmental Impact in Gunung Palung National Park, West Kalimantan, Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 197
Author(s):  
Nurul Ihsan Ihsan Fawzi ◽  
Angela Meike Indrayani ◽  
Keva DeKay
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Protected Area ◽  
National Park ◽  
Forest Cover ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Biodiversity Loss ◽  
Forest Cover Change ◽  
Global Rate

Gunung Palung National Park were protected since 1937 and become remain conserve largest dipterocarp forest in Borneo. The park has severe forest loss caused by anthropogenic activities and forest fire. To help inform conservation efforts about pattern and distribution of deforestation in the park, we measured forest cover change in the protected area using 11 multi-temporal Landsat series images with path/row 121/61. We found the park already loss 10.68% of its forest area in 1989 and 26% from an initial loss in 1989 in 1997 caused by El Niño event. Currently, deforestation rate is 0.21%, higher than global rate cause El Niño of 2015/16 event and make severe forest fire. The direct impact of deforestation and or degradation in a protected area is biodiversity loss and shortage water storage or flooding. This biodiversity loss created by habitat loss, fragmentation, or genetic drifting. Different wildlife and vegetation have a different response for habitat change and will reach the new equilibrium.

scholarly journals The impact of forest fire on air-quality and visibility in Palangka Raya

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Sumaryati Sumaryati ◽  
Nani Cholianawati ◽  
Asri Indrawati
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Ambient Air ◽  
Average Concentration ◽  
Pm10 Concentration ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
The Impact

<p>It has been analyzed impact of forest fire on the air quality using PM10 parameter and visibility during 2000 – 2014 in Palangka Raya, Central Kalimantan province. Palangka Raya is an affected forest fire area with a monsoonal rainfall type which has one peak of the rainy season in January and one peak of the dry season in August. Drought condition has an impact on rising forest fire intensity causes increasing of PM10 concentration and decresing of visibility in July to November moreover when there is an El Niño phenomenon. The result of PM10 analysis shows that the air quality index in Palangka Raya during December - June is in a good  level category and still below the ambient air quality standard with an average concentration of 19 µg/m3. The impact of forest fire on declining air quality due to increasing of PM10 concentration occurred in July – November with an average concentration rising of 129 µg/m3. The El Niño phenomenon rises the PM10 concentration due to increasing of forest fires, but the increasing of PM10 is not comparable to the strength of El Niño, because of combustion condition and and human activities that play a role in forest fires. The worst impact of El Niño occurred in 2002, although the El Niño strength was only moderate, which is a half the time from July to November Palangka Raya covered air quality with dangerous levels with PM10 concentrations of more than µg/m3. A high PM10 concentration environment reduces the visibility significantly, which is visibility in the no fire condition about 8 km, but when the huge forest fire the visibility drops to 0.1 km.</p>

scholarly journals Drought-Modulated Boreal Forest Fire Occurrence and Linkage with La Nina Events in Altai Mountains, Northwest China

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 956
Author(s):  
Chunming Shi ◽  
Ying Liang ◽  
Cong Gao ◽  
Qiuhua Wang ◽  
Lifu Shu
Keyword(s):  
Drought Stress ◽  
Boreal Forest ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Boreal Forests ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
La Nina

Warming-induced drought stress and El Nino-associated summer precipitation failure are responsible for increased forest fire intensities of tropical and temperate forests in Asia and Australia. However, both effects are unclear for boreal forests, the largest biome and carbon stock over land. Here, we combined fire frequency, burned area, and climate data in the Altai boreal forests, the southmost extension of Siberia’s boreal forest into China, and explored their link with El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Surprisingly, both summer drought severity and fire occurrence showed significant (p < 0.05) correlation with La Nina events of the previous year and therefore provide an important reference for forest fire prediction and prevention in Altai. Despite a significant warming trend, the increased moisture over Altai has largely offset the effect of warming-induced drought stress and led to an insignificant fire frequency trend in the last decades, resulting in largely reduced burned area since the 1980s. The reduced burned area can also be attributed to fire suppression efforts and greatly increased investment in fire prevention since 1987.

Multi-decadal variability of forest fire risk - eastern Australia

2004 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 165 ◽  
Author(s):  
Danielle C. Verdon ◽  
Anthony S. Kiem ◽  
Stewart W. Franks
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Forest Fire Danger ◽  
Forest Fire Risk ◽  
El Nino Events

This study investigates the influence that the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) have on long term daily weather conditions pertinent to high forest fire danger in New South Wales, Australia. Using historical meteorological data for 22 weather stations to compute the daily value of McArthur’s Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), it is shown that a strong relationship exists between climate variability, on a range of time scales, and forest fire risk. An investigation into the influence of ENSO on fire risk demonstrates that the proportion of days with a high, or greater than high, fire danger rating is markedly increased during El Niño episodes. More importantly, this study also shows that the already significantly enhanced fire danger associated with El Niño events was even further increased during El Niño events that occurred when the IPO was negative. The potential to use simple indices of climate variability to predict forest fire risk is therefore demonstrated to be significant.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document