scholarly journals Extended SEIR Model for Health Policies Assessment Against the COVID-19 Pandemic: the Case of Argentina

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando A. Inthamoussou ◽  
Fernando Valenciaga ◽  
Sebastián Núñez ◽  
Fabricio Garelli
Keyword(s):  
Health Policies ◽  
Seir Model

scholarly journals COVID-19 in regions with low prevalence and low density of population. An uncertainty dynamic modeling approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
José M. Garrido ◽  
David Martínez-Rodríguez ◽  
Fernando Rodríguez-Serrano ◽  
Javier Díez-Domingo ◽  
Rafael-J. Villanueva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Modeling ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Low Density ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Substantial Progress ◽  
Low Prevalence ◽  
Insight Into

AbstractThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) that emerged in China at the end of 2019 has spread worldwide. In this article, we present a mathematical SEIR model focused on analysing the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, the patients circulating in the hospitals and evaluating the effects of health policies and vaccination on the control of the pandemic. We tested the model using registered cases and population data from the province of Granada (Spain), that represents a population size near 1 million citizens with low density of population and low prevalence. After calibrating the model with the data obtained from 15 March to 22 September 2020, we simulate different vaccination scenarios - including effectiveness and availability date - in order to study the possible evolution of the disease. The results show that: 1) infected will increase until 5.6% - 7.4% of the total population over next 3-4 months (2nd wave); 2) vaccination seems not to be enough to face the pandemic and other strategies should be used; 3) we also support the claim of the WHO about the effectiveness of the vaccine, that should be, at least, of 50% to represent a substantial progress against the COVID-19; 4) after the 2nd wave, the return to normal life should be controlled and gradual to avoid a 3rd wave. The proposed study may be a useful tool for giving insight into the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and to design vaccination and health policies.

scholarly journals Contraste de la frecuencia de salida del hogar ante la pandemia por COVID-19

Minerva ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 40-45
Author(s):  
Andrea Egas ◽  
Carmen Elena Santander ◽  
Marcelo Salazar ◽  
Alejandro Grijalva
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Clinical Practice ◽  
Web Of Science ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Palabras Clave ◽  
The Face ◽  
Salud Mental

En el siguiente estudio se evalúa un panorama con respecto al comportamiento sociológico en un preámbulo tanto antes durante y después de esta crisis social que se está viviendo debido a la pandemia de hoy en día. Por ello para sustentar dicha investigación se realizó un censo en el cuál, mediante el uso de herramientas estadísticas, se pudo realizar una comparación entre un antes y un durante de la pandemia, lo cual facilitaría intrínsicamente a la predicción de una denominada post pandemia. En este texto se pretende detallar el proceso y forma de la encuesta, al igual que los resultados obtenidos de la misma. Se proveen, además, posibles explicaciones para estos resultados, guiándose por las restricciones de salud nacionales como posibles razones para el cambio de comportamiento actual. Palabras Clave: coronavirus, pandemia, frecuencia de salida. Referencias [1]P. Byass, «Eco-epidemiological assessment of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, January-February 2020,» Web Of Science, vol. 13, nº 1, 2020. [2]P. Stefanoni, «Brasil: pandemia, guerra cultural y precariedad,» Nueva Sociedad, pp. 49-59, 2020. [3]M. J. Báguena Cervellera, «La pandemia de COVID-19 a la luz de la historia de la medicina,» Investigación y Ciencia , 2020. [4]A. Levy, «La pandemia de COVID-19 podr{ia ayudar a resolver una gran incógnita climática,» Investigación y Ciencia, 2020. [5]T. Marcel Ariel, «Relaciones en tiempos de pandemia: COVID-19 y bienestar animal, ambiental y humano,» Revista Facultad Nacional De Agronomia Medellin, vol. 2, 2020. [6]F. Manrique-Abril, «Modelo SIR de la pandemia de Covid-19 en Colombia/SIR model of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia,» Revista De Salúd Publica, vol. 22, pp. 1-6, 2020. [7]D. Arango-Londoño , «Predicciones de un modelo SEIR para casos de COVID-19 en Cali, Colombia/Predictions of a SEIR model for COVID-19 cases in Cali-Colombia,» Revista De Salúd Publica, vol. 22, nº 2, pp. 1-9, 2020. [8]J. Gonzales-Castillo , «Pandemia de la COVID-19 y las Políticas de Salud Pública en el Perú: marzo-mayo 2020/COVID-19 pandemic and Public Health Policies in Peru: March-May 2020,» Revista De Salúd Publica, vol. 22, nº2, pp. 1-9, 2020. [9]A. Valenzuela-Cazés y L. Becerra-Ostos, «Práctica clínica, ámbito laboral y riesgos de la fisioterapia ante el COVID-19/Clinical practice, work and risks of physical therapy in the face of COVID-19,» Revista De Salúd Publica, vol. 22, nº 2, pp. 1-4, 2020. [10]P. Montes-Alarcón y A. Campo-Arias, «Los médicos generales y la salud mental en la pandemia por COVID-19,» Duazary, vol. 17, nº 3, pp. 4-6, 2020.

scholarly journals Modeling COVID-19 with Uncertainty in Granada, Spain. Intra-Hospitalary Circuit and Expectations over the Next Months

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 1132
Author(s):  
José M. Garrido ◽  
David Martínez-Rodríguez ◽  
Fernando Rodríguez-Serrano ◽  
Sorina-M. Sferle ◽  
Rafael-J. Villanueva
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
History Of ◽  
Hospital Resources ◽  
Over Time

Mathematical models have been remarkable tools for knowing in advance the appropriate time to enforce population restrictions and distribute hospital resources. Here, we present a mathematical Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model to study the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Granada, Spain, taking into account the uncertainty of the phenomenon. In the model, the patients moving throughout the hospital’s departments (intra-hospitalary circuit) are considered in order to help to optimize the use of a hospital’s resources in the future. Two main seasons, September–April (autumn-winter) and May–August (summer), where the hospital pressure is significantly different, have been included. The model is calibrated and validated with data obtained from the hospitals in Granada. Possible future scenarios have been simulated. The model is able to capture the history of the pandemic in Granada. It provides predictions about the intra-hospitalary COVID-19 circuit over time and shows that the number of infected is expected to decline continuously from May without an increase next autumn–winter if population measures continue to be satisfied. The model strongly suggests that the number of infected cases will reduce rapidly with aggressive vaccination policies. The proposed study is being used in Granada to design public health policies and perform wise re-distribution of hospital resources in advance.

A road map for leptospirosis research and health policies based on country needs in Latin America

2017 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martha Maria Pereira ◽  
Maria Cristina Schneider ◽  
Claudia Munoz-Zanzi ◽  
Federico Costa ◽  
Jackie Benschop ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Road Map

The evaluation of health policies through dynamic microsimulation methods

2011 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eugenio Zucchelli ◽  
Andrew M Jones ◽  
Nigel Rice
Keyword(s):  
Health Policies

COVID-19 Italian and Europe Epidemic Evolution: A SEIR Model with Lockdown-Dependent Transmission Rate Based on Chinese Data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicola Picchiotti ◽  
Monica Salvioli ◽  
Elena Zanardini ◽  
Francesco Missale
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Seir Model

Forecast of COVID-19 Trend Following Countrywide Movement Control Order in Malaysia: SEIR Model Approach (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aidalina Mahmud ◽  
Poh Ying Lim ◽  
Hayati Kadir Shahar
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Movement Control ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Infection Incidence ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Exposed Population ◽  
Control Order ◽  
Future Work ◽  
Model Approach

BACKGROUND On March 18, 2020, the Malaysian government implemented Movement Control Order (MCO) to limit the contact rates among the population and infected individuals. OBJECTIVE The objective of this study was to forecast the trend of the COVID-19 epidemic in Malaysia in terms of its magnitude and duration. METHODS Data for this analysis was obtained from publicly available databases, from March 17 until March 27, 2020. By applying the Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious and Removed (SEIR) mathematical model and several predetermined assumptions, two analyses were carried out: without and with MCO implementation. RESULTS Without MCO, it is forecasted that it would take 18 days to reach the peak of infection incidence. The incidence rate would plateau at day 80 and end by day 94, with 43% of the exposed population infected. With the implementation of the MCO, it is forecasted that new cases of infection would peak at day 25, plateau at day 90 and end by day 100. At its peak, the infection could affect up to about 40% of the exposed population. CONCLUSIONS It is forecasted that the COVID-19 epidemic in Malaysia will subside soon after the mid-year of 2020. Although the implementation of MCO can flatten the epidemiological curve, it also prolongs the duration of the epidemic. The MCO can result in several unfavorable consequences in economic and psychosocial aspects. A future work of an exit plan for the MCO should also be devised and implemented gradually. The exit plan raises several timely issues of re-infection resurgence after MCO are lifted.

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