Forecast of COVID-19 Trend Following Countrywide Movement Control Order in Malaysia: SEIR Model Approach (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aidalina Mahmud ◽  
Poh Ying Lim ◽  
Hayati Kadir Shahar
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Movement Control ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Infection Incidence ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Exposed Population ◽  
Control Order ◽  
Future Work ◽  
Model Approach

BACKGROUND On March 18, 2020, the Malaysian government implemented Movement Control Order (MCO) to limit the contact rates among the population and infected individuals. OBJECTIVE The objective of this study was to forecast the trend of the COVID-19 epidemic in Malaysia in terms of its magnitude and duration. METHODS Data for this analysis was obtained from publicly available databases, from March 17 until March 27, 2020. By applying the Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious and Removed (SEIR) mathematical model and several predetermined assumptions, two analyses were carried out: without and with MCO implementation. RESULTS Without MCO, it is forecasted that it would take 18 days to reach the peak of infection incidence. The incidence rate would plateau at day 80 and end by day 94, with 43% of the exposed population infected. With the implementation of the MCO, it is forecasted that new cases of infection would peak at day 25, plateau at day 90 and end by day 100. At its peak, the infection could affect up to about 40% of the exposed population. CONCLUSIONS It is forecasted that the COVID-19 epidemic in Malaysia will subside soon after the mid-year of 2020. Although the implementation of MCO can flatten the epidemiological curve, it also prolongs the duration of the epidemic. The MCO can result in several unfavorable consequences in economic and psychosocial aspects. A future work of an exit plan for the MCO should also be devised and implemented gradually. The exit plan raises several timely issues of re-infection resurgence after MCO are lifted.

scholarly journals Modelling the Effectiveness of Epidemic Control Measures in Preventing the Transmission of COVID-19 in Malaysia

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (15) ◽  
pp. 5509 ◽  
Author(s):  
Balvinder Singh Gill ◽  
Vivek Jason Jayaraj ◽  
Sarbhan Singh ◽  
Sumarni Mohd Ghazali ◽  
Yoon Ling Cheong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Model Calibration ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Close Contact ◽  
Movement Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Control Order

Malaysia is currently facing an outbreak of COVID-19. We aim to present the first study in Malaysia to report the reproduction numbers and develop a mathematical model forecasting COVID-19 transmission by including isolation, quarantine, and movement control measures. We utilized a susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered (SEIR) model by incorporating isolation, quarantine, and movement control order (MCO) taken in Malaysia. The simulations were fitted into the Malaysian COVID-19 active case numbers, allowing approximation of parameters consisting of probability of transmission per contact (β), average number of contacts per day per case (ζ), and proportion of close-contact traced per day (q). The effective reproduction number (Rt) was also determined through this model. Our model calibration estimated that (β), (ζ), and (q) were 0.052, 25 persons, and 0.23, respectively. The (Rt) was estimated to be 1.68. MCO measures reduce the peak number of active COVID-19 cases by 99.1% and reduce (ζ) from 25 (pre-MCO) to 7 (during MCO). The flattening of the epidemic curve was also observed with the implementation of these control measures. We conclude that isolation, quarantine, and MCO measures are essential to break the transmission of COVID-19 in Malaysia.

scholarly journals Applying the SEIR Model in Forecasting The COVID-19 Trend in Malaysia: A Preliminary Study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aidalina Mahmud ◽  
Poh Ying Lim
Keyword(s):  
Community Health ◽  
Movement Control ◽  
Senior Lecturer ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Health Specialist ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Preliminary Study ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Control Order

AbstractOn March 18, 2020 the Malaysian government implemented a 14-day Movement Control Order (MCO) as part of the mitigation plan in controlling the COVID-19 epidemic in the country. The MCO aims to limit the contact rates among the population and hence prevent the surge of infected individuals. However, the trend of the epidemic before and after the MCO was not apparent. By applying the Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious and Removed (SEIR) mathematical model, we aimed to forecast the trend of COVID-19 epidemic in Malaysia using data from March 17 to 27, 2020. Based on several predetermined assumptions, the results of the analyses showed that after the implementation of the 14-day MCO from March 18 to 31, 2020, it is forecasted that the epidemic in Malaysia will peak approximately in the end of April 2020 and will subside by about the first week of July 2020. The MCO will “flatten the epidemic curve” but will prolong the duration of the epidemic. Decision to extend the duration of the MCO should depend on the consideration of socioeconomic factors as well.Author summaryDr. Aidalina Mahmud is a Public Health Specialist and a medical lecturer in the Department of Community Health, Universiti Putra Malaysia. Dr. Lim Poh Ying is a Biostatistician and is a senior lecturer in the Department of Community Health, Universiti Putra Malaysia.

Public knowledge, perception and communication behavior surrounding COVID-19 in Malaysia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khayriyyah Mohd Hanafiah ◽  
Chang Da Wan
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Employment Status ◽  
Multinomial Logistic Regression ◽  
Movement Control ◽  
Education Level ◽  
Public Knowledge ◽  
Communication Behavior ◽  
Positive Communication ◽  
The Face ◽  
Control Order

The COVID-19 pandemic is the first to occur in an age of hyperconnectivity. This paper presents results from an online anonymous survey conducted in Malay, English, and Chinese, during the first week of the Movement Control Order in Malaysia (n=1075), which aimed to examine public knowledge, perception and communication behavior in the Malaysian society in the face of a sudden outbreak and social distancing measures. Although the level of public knowledge, risk perception and positive communication behavior surrounding COVID-19 was high, a majority of respondents reported receiving a lot of questionable information. Multinomial logistic regression further identified that responses to different items varied significantly across respondent survey language, gender, age, education level and employment status.

Empirical model approach for the evaluation of pH and conductivity on pollutant diffusion in soil environment

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chem Int
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Quadratic Equation ◽  
Diffusivity Coefficient ◽  
Soil Environment ◽  
Irreversible Reaction ◽  
Chemical Pollutant ◽  
The Mathematical Model ◽  
Coefficient Of Diffusion ◽  
Level Of Agreement ◽  
Model Approach

This work is aimed at developing a mathematical model equation that can be used to predict the fate of contaminant in the soil environment. The mathematical model was developed based on the fundamental laws of conservation and the equation of continuity given asand was resolved to obtain a quadratic equation of the form C(X) = DX2+vX+f. The developed equation was then used to fit the experimental data that were obtained from the Physio-chemical analysis of the soil samples which were obtained at various depths; within the vicinity of the H & H Asphalt plant Company, located at Enito 3 in Ahoada West L.G.A, River State, Nigeria. The Experimental and Model results obtained from the Calculation and Simulation of the developed models were compared numerically and graphically as presented in this work. It was observed that there is reasonable level of agreement between the three results. The polynomial of the curve was established to ascertain the validity of the model; this was done for all the parameters that were analyzed. From the findings the model developed can be used to predict the concentration of a chemical pollutant at various depths. The reliability of the model developed was established giving the fact that through this quadratic equation the diffusivity (coefficient of diffusion), the water velocity and the irreversible reaction decay rate could be determined.

Perception and satisfaction of delivery services in Malaysia during movement control order

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilya Yasnorizar Ilyas ◽  
Abdul Rauf Ridzuan ◽  
Rosilawati Sultan Mohideen ◽  
Mohd Hilmi Bakar
Keyword(s):  
Movement Control ◽  
Delivery Services ◽  
Control Order

Framework kognitive Produktionsarbeit 4.0/Framework for Cognitive Production Work 4.0 – Conceptualization and Model Approach for the Production System of the Future within the Future Work Lab

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (03) ◽  
pp. 108-112
Author(s):  
Simon Schumacher ◽  
Bastian Pokorni
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Production System ◽  
Research Agenda ◽  
Reference Model ◽  
Work Organisation ◽  
Research Topics ◽  
Interdisciplinary Project ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Work ◽  
Model Approach

Das Future Work Lab ist ein Innovationslabor für Arbeit, Mensch und Technik am Standort Stuttgart mit Fokus auf Künstlicher Intelligenz (KI) und vernetzter Arbeitsorganisation. Ein zentraler Bestandteil ist das Framework kognitive Produktionsarbeit 4.0, das als Referenzmodell für das Themenfeld Produktionsarbeit 4.0 dienen soll. Ein entsprechendes Konzept wurde in einem interdisziplinären Projektteam entwickelt. In diesem Beitrag wird das Grobmodell vorgestellt und die weitere Forschungsagenda präsentiert.   The Future Work Lab is an innovation lab for work, people and technology in Stuttgart, Germany with a focus on artificial intelligence and interconnected work organisation. A key component consists of the framework for cognitive production work 4.0, which will serve as a reference model for the research topics. A corresponding concept was developed in an interdisciplinary project team. In this article the raw model is introduced and the further research agenda is presented.

Malaysian Enhanced Movement Control Order (EMCO): a unique and impactful approach to combating pandemic COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohd Rohaizat Hassan ◽  
Mohd Nizam Subahir ◽  
Linayanti Rosli ◽  
Shaharom Nor Azian Che Mat Din ◽  
Nor Zaher Ismail ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Total Population ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Movement Control ◽  
Essential Elements ◽  
Effective Measure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Wedding Ceremony ◽  
Control Order ◽  
Targeted Approach ◽  
Close Contacts

PurposeThe paper highlights the process-handling during the Enhanced Movement Control Order (EMCO) in combating pandemic COVID-19 in Malaysia.Design/methodology/approachMalaysia first issued an EMCO following a cluster that involved a religious gathering. The EMCO was issued to lockdown the area, undertake screening, treat positive cases and quarantine their close contacts. Active case detection and mass sampling were the main activities involving the population in both zones.FindingsOne hundred ninety-three confirmed COVID-19 cases were identified from the total population of 2,599. Of these cases, 99.5% were Malaysians, 31.7% were aged >60 years and all four deaths (Case Fatality Rate, 2.1%) were elderly people with comorbidities. One hundred and one cases (52.3%) were asymptomatic, of which 77 (77%) were detected during mass sampling. The risk factors contributing to the outbreak were contacts that had attended the religious gathering, regular mosque congregants, wedding ceremony attendees and close household contacts. Malaysia implemented an effective measure in the form of the EMCO to contain the COVID-19 outbreak, where the last cases were reported 16 days before the EMCO was lifted.Originality/valueThe residents’ compliance and inter-agency cooperation were essential elements to the success of the EMCO. A targeted approach using an EMCO should be implemented in a future pandemic.

Infaq In Times Of Pandemic: The New Norm Of Islamic Eschatology

2021 ◽  
pp. 131-150
Author(s):  
Abdul Mutalib Embong ◽  
Azelin Mohamed Noor ◽  
Hezlina Mohd Hashim ◽  
Syahrul Alim Baharuddin ◽  
Norasyikin Binti Abdul Malik
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Middle Class ◽  
Social Welfare ◽  
Movement Control ◽  
Qualitative Approach ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Hard Time ◽  
Control Order ◽  
The Needy

This study reveals the currents social welfare which includes the uprising practice of Islamic charity, namely Infaq (voluntary alms giving), an instrument to help the unfortunate people (asnaf). It used qualitative approach involving semi-structured interviews focusing on six themes with six respondents. They engage in Infaq during the MCO or Movement Control Order. The results showed that there was a rise of contemporary fame of Infaq among Malaysian middle-class Muslims and charity body or organisation that specialise in sedekah/Infaq programmes . These parties make use of the platform of social media to record their activities and raise funds activity to help the needy who demand immediate and non-bureaucratic donations especially in a form of material help like food and daily necessities. This indeed has changed the course of how sedekah or Infaq used to be done back then. More Muslims who perform these Islamic charities display their efficiency and transparency in their donations as in Islam, sedekah is as a spiritual ‘investment’ to the donors despite the hard time people face during pandemic. 

scholarly journals Five Tips for Teaching and Learning During the COVID-19 Movement Control Order Era: A Family Medicine Perspective

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (6) ◽  
pp. 183-186
Author(s):  
Malanashita Ganeson ◽  
Sasikala Devi Amirthalingam ◽  
Kwa Siew Kim
Keyword(s):  
Family Medicine ◽  
Online Teaching ◽  
Teaching And Learning ◽  
Movement Control ◽  
Formative Assessments ◽  
Learning Activities ◽  
Online Teaching And Learning ◽  
Control Order ◽  
Online Formative Assessments ◽  
Medical University

The Malaysian government’s ongoing movement control order (MCO) to prevent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread, has disrupted the teaching and learning (T&L) activities of higher education institutions in the country. This paper seeks to outline the steps taken by the Department of Family Medicine of the International Medical University (IMU), Malaysia, to adapt its online teaching and learning activities. The five tips are: i) understand how to use online T&L platforms; ii) teachers should create multiple communication channels; iii) ensure attendance is captured; iv) enhance the online T&L experience and v) conduct online formative assessments.

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