Application of the Monte Carlo simulation procedure to estimate water-supply well/septic tank-drainfield separation distances in the Central Wisconsin sand plain

1991 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-109 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric W. Harmsen ◽  
James C. Converse ◽  
Mary P. Anderson
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Septic Tank ◽  
Simulation Procedure ◽  
Sand Plain

A study on appropriate investment of pipeline rehabilitation for water distribution network

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 31-38
Author(s):  
A. Asakura ◽  
A. Koizumi ◽  
O. Odanagi ◽  
H. Watanabe ◽  
T. Inakazu
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Water Distribution ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Distribution Network ◽  
Water Distribution Network ◽  
Distribution Networks ◽  
Optimal Basis ◽  
Model Case

In Japan most of the water distribution networks were constructed during the 1960s to 1970s. Since these pipelines were used for a long period, pipeline rehabilitation is necessary to maintain water supply. Although investment for pipeline rehabilitation has to be planned in terms of cost-effectiveness, no standard method has been established because pipelines were replaced on emergency and ad hoc basis in the past. In this paper, a method to determine the maintenance of the water supply on an optimal basis with a fixed budget for a water distribution network is proposed. Firstly, a method to quantify the benefits of pipeline rehabilitation is examined. Secondly, two models using Integer Programming and Monte Carlo simulation to maximize the benefits of pipeline rehabilitation with limited budget were considered, and they are applied to a model case and a case study. Based on these studies, it is concluded that the Monte Carlo simulation model to calculate the appropriate investment for the pipeline rehabilitation planning is both convenient and practical.

scholarly journals Social-network-based water supply network sectorization methodology using monte carlo simulation to predict economical and operational benefits

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 ◽  
pp. 44-53
Author(s):  
Enrique Campbell ◽  
Amilkar Illaya-Ayza ◽  
Joaquín Izquierdo ◽  
Rafael Pérez-García ◽  
Idel Montalvo
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Optimization Method ◽  
Supply Network ◽  
Water Supply Network ◽  
Water Supply Management ◽  
Net Profit ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Water Supply Network (WSN) sectorization is a broadly known technique aimed at enhancing water supply management. In general, existing methodologies for sectorization of WSNs are limited to assessment of the impact of its implementation over reduction of background leakage, underestimating increased capacity to detect new leakage events and undermining appropriate investment substantiation. In this work, we raise this issue and put in place a methodology to optimize sectors' design. To this end, we carry out a novel combination of the Short Run Economic Leakage Level concept (SRELL- corresponding to leakage level that can occur in a WSN in a certain period of time and whose reparation would be more costly than the benefits that can be obtained). With a non-deterministic optimization method based on Genetic Algorithms (GAs) in combination with Monte Carlo simulation. As an example of application, methodology is implemented over a 246 km pipe-long WSN, reporting 72 397 $/year as net profit.

Assessing Wear Evolutions in Railway Wheelsets Using a Survival Modeling Approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guilerme A. C. Caldeira ◽  
JoaquimAP Braga ◽  
António R. Andrade
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Condition Based Maintenance ◽  
Monitoring Systems ◽  
Simulation Procedure ◽  
Condition Monitoring Systems ◽  
Survival Modeling ◽  
Wheel Profile ◽  
Independence Of Events

Abstract The present paper provides a method to predict maintenance needs for the railway wheelsets by modeling the wear out affecting the wheelsets during its life cycle using survival analysis. Wear variations of wheel profiles are discretized and modelled through a censored survival approach, which is appropriate for modeling wheel profile degradation using real operation data from the condition monitoring systems that currently exist in railway companies. Several parametric distributions for the wear variations are modeled and the behavior of the selected ones is analyzed and compared with wear trajectories computed by a Monte Carlo simulation procedure. This procedure aims to test the independence of events by adding small fractions of wear to reach larger wear values. The results show that the independence of wear events is not true for all the established events, but it is confirmed for small wear values. Overall, the proposed framework is developed in such a way that the outputs can be used to support predictions in condition-based maintenance models and to optimize the maintenance of wheelsets.

scholarly journals Economics of alternative water resources with an emphasis on aquifer storage and recovery

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 612-621 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jae-ho Choi ◽  
Miroslaw Skibniewski ◽  
Young-Gyoo Shim
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Treatment Plant ◽  
Aquifer Storage And Recovery ◽  
Critical Question ◽  
Aquifer Storage ◽  
Alternative Water

Abstract This paper demonstrates a comprehensive methodology for assessing the comparison of unit water production cost (UWPC) between alternative water resources including desalination, freshwater reservoirs, single-purpose dams, underground dams and two indirect water in take technologies – riverbank filtration and aquifer storage and recovery (ASR). This study considers the Monte Carlo simulation as the only viable solution to tackle this critical question, which can be used to evaluate the economics of diverse water supply schemes incorporating those alternatives and prepare long-term water supply planning. Built upon actual and conceptual cost data for each alternative, total project cost and operation and management cost estimation models for each alternative were developed and used for generating mean UWPC information using the Monte Carlo simulation approach. The mean UWPC differences between alternative water supply schemes were found to be statistically significant and the simulation results revealed that ASR is the lowest-cost option to provide drinkable water for both cases when a conventional water treatment plant (WTP) and advanced WTP were used as a connected post-treatment process.

Deriving Proven Oil Reserves Comments on the Monte Carlo Simulation Procedure

1993 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-65
Author(s):  
Mark Wallace
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Basic Principles ◽  
Oil Reserves ◽  
Confidence Levels ◽  
Simulation Procedure ◽  
Probabilistic Distribution ◽  
Reservoir Description ◽  
Definition Of

The definition of reserves categories is frequently related directly back to the probabilistic distribution of reserves in the field. Most developments are planned around the P50 or “most likely” expectation for the field a level which incorporates the Proven plus Probable categories. The Proven category is usually backed out from the resulting reserves distribution by assuming an arbitrary P90 or P80 value, similarly upside or the Reserves including the Possible category are allocated a P20 or P10 value. This approach provides an “accepted” range to the reserves but is essentially reliant upon applying a range to a set of deterministric parameters. This approach assumes the basic principles of reservoir description are correct and can be applied at all confidence levels (P90-P10). In complex reservoirs this is less of a valid assumption, and running deterministic cases using pessimistic and optimistic data interpretations is the realistic way to determine the reserves range for the field.

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