Assessing the effects of climate change on the phenology of European temperate trees

In temperate zones, trees tend to unfold their leaves earlier due to climate warming. However, changes in the timing of the bud development also affect the dynamics of the cold-hardening process, which may increase frost injuries endured by trees because new leaves unfold at a period when frost events can still occur. This possible increase in frost damage in response to climate change is known as the “frost-damage hypothesis”. In this study, we have tested this hypothesis by forcing a process-based frost-injury model with process-based phenological models for 22 North American species with two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change storylines. Using a simplified parameterization of the frost-injury model, we found that risk of frost injury changed with climate change for all species. In fact, frost injury decreased for the vast majority of the species, but this trend varied across species and throughout each species’ distribution. We further explored the variability of response among species using their phenological and geographic characteristics. The interspecific trends depicted here show what could be the implications of climate change on the ecophysiology of boreal and temperate trees and highlight the importance of process-based models in studying the complexity of long-term impacts of climate change on species biology.

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Climate impacts on vegetation and fire dynamics since the last deglaciation at Moossee (Switzerland)

Climate of the Past ◽

10.5194/cp-16-1347-2020 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 16 (4) ◽

pp. 1347-1367 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Fabian Rey ◽

Erika Gobet ◽

Christoph Schwörer ◽

Albert Hafner ◽

Sönke Szidat ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Fagus Sylvatica ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Central European ◽

Vegetation Shifts ◽

Temperate Trees ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; end ca. 19 000 cal BP) central European plant communities have been shaped by changing climatic and anthropogenic disturbances. Understanding long-term ecosystem reorganizations in response to past environmental changes is crucial to draw conclusions about the impact of future climate change. So far, it has been difficult to address the post-deglaciation timing and ecosystem dynamics due to a lack of well-dated and continuous sediment sequences covering the entire period after the LGM. Here, we present a new paleoecological study with exceptional chronological time control using pollen, spores and microscopic charcoal from Moossee (Swiss Plateau, 521 m a.s.l.) to reconstruct the vegetation and fire history over the last ca. 19 000 years. After lake formation in response to deglaciation, five major pollen-inferred ecosystem rearrangements occurred at ca. 18 800 cal BP (establishment of steppe tundra), 16 000 cal BP (spread of shrub tundra), 14 600 cal BP (expansion of boreal forests), 11 600 cal BP (establishment of the first temperate deciduous tree stands composed of, e.g., Quercus, Ulmus, Alnus) and 8200 cal BP (first occurrence of mesophilous Fagus sylvatica trees). These vegetation shifts were caused by climate changes at ca. 19 000, 16 000, 14 700, 11 700 and 8200 cal BP. Vegetation responses occurred with no apparent time lag to climate change when the mutual chronological uncertainties are considered. This finding is in agreement with further evidence from southern and central Europe and might be explained by the proximity to the refugia of boreal and temperate trees (<400 km) and rapid species spreads. Our palynological record sets the beginning of millennial-scale land use with periodically increased fire and agricultural activities of the Neolithic period at ca. 7000 cal BP. Subsequently, humans rather than climate triggered changes in vegetation composition and structure. We conclude that Fagus sylvatica forests were resilient to long-term anthropogenic and climatic impacts of the Mid and the Late Holocene. However, future climate warming and in particular declining moisture availability may cause unprecedented reorganizations of central European beech-dominated forest ecosystems.

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Climate Warming Increased Spring Leaf-Out Variation Across Temperate Trees in China

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change ◽

10.3389/ffgc.2021.806719 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 ◽

Author(s):

Yaru Zhang ◽

Yongshuo Fu ◽

Xiaojun Geng ◽

Shouzhi Chen ◽

Yahui Guo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Temporal Trends ◽

Ecosystem Structure ◽

High Latitudes ◽

Average Decrease ◽

Temperate Trees ◽

Low Latitudes ◽

Heat Requirements ◽

Scientific Attention

Leaf-out phenology plays a key role in ecosystem structure and functioning. Phenological changes have often been linked to climatic factors and have received considerable attention, with most studies focusing on trends of leaf-out phenology. Leaf-out variation (LOV), which reflects the stability of phenological responses, may also be affected by climate change, yet this has received less scientific attention. In this study, we examined spring LOV in response to climate change in China during the period 1963–2008 using in situ records of 15 species at 25 phenological observation sites across several climate zones and explored spatiotemporal changes of LOV and the underlying mechanisms. We observed a significant decrease of LOV toward higher latitudes (−0.2 ± 0.1 days⋅°N–1;P < 0.001) across all species. Temporally, we found that the LOV was significantly increased from the period 1963–1986 (6.9 ± 2.8 days) to the period 1987–2008 (7.9 ± 3.7 days, P < 0.05). Furthermore, the LOV changes between 1987–2008 and 1963–1986 were significantly smaller at high latitudes (average decrease of 1.0 day) than at low latitudes (average increase of 1.5 days). The spatial pattern of LOV is likely due to both increased heat requirements and greater temperature sensitivity at low latitudes compared with high latitudes. The temporal pattern of LOV is likely related to increased heat requirements for leaf-out during 1987–2008 when the average air temperature was higher. Our analysis indicated that the phenology response to climate change is reflected not only in the temporal trends for long time series but also in the variation of phenological dates. Results from this study improve our understanding of phenological responses to climate change and could be applied in the assessment of regional phenology changes to evaluate better the impacts of climate change on ecosystem structure and function.

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The effects of climate change on the flowering phenology of alder trees in southwestern Europe

Mediterranean Botany ◽

10.5209/mbot.67360 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 42 ◽

pp. e67360

Author(s):

Jesús Rojo ◽

Federico Fernández-González ◽

Beatriz Lara ◽

Verónica Bouso ◽

Guillermo Crespo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Alnus Glutinosa ◽

Flowering Phenology ◽

Warming Trend ◽

Reproductive Phenology ◽

Positive Trend ◽

Black Alder ◽

Start Date ◽

Temperate Trees ◽

Short Period

Global warming impacts plant phenology and the effect of climate change will be more intensely experienced at the edges of a plant's distribution. This work focuses on Iberian alder's climatic range (Alnus lusitanica Vít, Douda & Mandák). The Iberian Peninsula constitutes the Southwestern edge of the global chorological distribution of European black alder (Alnus glutinosa (L.) Gaertn. s.l.), and some of the warmest and driest conditions for the alder population are located in the center of Spain. The critical temperature-relevant periods that regulate the reproductive phenology of alder were analyzed using a statistical-based method for modeling chilling and forcing accumulation periods in temperate trees. Our results reveal that autumn chilling was the most important thermal accumulation period for alder in a Mediterranean climate while forcing requirements are satisfied in a short period of time. Autumn temperatures were significantly correlated with the timing of flowering, and chill units during this season directly influence start-dates of alder flowering. A positive trend was observed in pollen seasons' timing, meaning a slight delay of alder flowering in central Spain. It coincided with autumn warming during the period 2004-2018. If this warming trend continues, our results predict a delay in the start-date of flowering by around 3-days for every degree increase in maximum autumn temperatures according to the most optimistic emission scenarios.

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Averting robo-bees: why free-flying robotic bees are a bad idea

Emerging Topics in Life Sciences ◽

10.1042/etls20190063 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 3 (6) ◽

pp. 723-729

Author(s):

Roslyn Gleadow ◽

Jim Hanan ◽

Alan Dorin

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Computer Simulation ◽

Food Security ◽

European Countries ◽

Plant Interactions ◽

Plant Insect Interactions ◽

Native Habitat ◽

Insect Pollinators ◽

Insect Interactions

Food security and the sustainability of native ecosystems depends on plant-insect interactions in countless ways. Recently reported rapid and immense declines in insect numbers due to climate change, the use of pesticides and herbicides, the introduction of agricultural monocultures, and the destruction of insect native habitat, are all potential contributors to this grave situation. Some researchers are working towards a future where natural insect pollinators might be replaced with free-flying robotic bees, an ecologically problematic proposal. We argue instead that creating environments that are friendly to bees and exploring the use of other species for pollination and bio-control, particularly in non-European countries, are more ecologically sound approaches. The computer simulation of insect-plant interactions is a far more measured application of technology that may assist in managing, or averting, ‘Insect Armageddon' from both practical and ethical viewpoints.

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Modelling ecosystem adaptation and dangerous rates of global warming

Emerging Topics in Life Sciences ◽

10.1042/etls20180113 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 3 (2) ◽

pp. 221-231 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Rebecca Millington ◽

Peter M. Cox ◽

Jonathan R. Moore ◽

Gabriel Yvon-Durocher

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

Diffusion Rate ◽

Individual Species ◽

Genetic Evolution ◽

Rates Of Change ◽

Rapid Climate Change ◽

Warming Climate ◽

Intraspecies Competition ◽

High Trait

Abstract We are in a period of relatively rapid climate change. This poses challenges for individual species and threatens the ecosystem services that humanity relies upon. Temperature is a key stressor. In a warming climate, individual organisms may be able to shift their thermal optima through phenotypic plasticity. However, such plasticity is unlikely to be sufficient over the coming centuries. Resilience to warming will also depend on how fast the distribution of traits that define a species can adapt through other methods, in particular through redistribution of the abundance of variants within the population and through genetic evolution. In this paper, we use a simple theoretical ‘trait diffusion’ model to explore how the resilience of a given species to climate change depends on the initial trait diversity (biodiversity), the trait diffusion rate (mutation rate), and the lifetime of the organism. We estimate theoretical dangerous rates of continuous global warming that would exceed the ability of a species to adapt through trait diffusion, and therefore lead to a collapse in the overall productivity of the species. As the rate of adaptation through intraspecies competition and genetic evolution decreases with species lifetime, we find critical rates of change that also depend fundamentally on lifetime. Dangerous rates of warming vary from 1°C per lifetime (at low trait diffusion rate) to 8°C per lifetime (at high trait diffusion rate). We conclude that rapid climate change is liable to favour short-lived organisms (e.g. microbes) rather than longer-lived organisms (e.g. trees).

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