Climate Warming Increased Spring Leaf-Out Variation Across Temperate Trees in China

Leaf-out phenology plays a key role in ecosystem structure and functioning. Phenological changes have often been linked to climatic factors and have received considerable attention, with most studies focusing on trends of leaf-out phenology. Leaf-out variation (LOV), which reflects the stability of phenological responses, may also be affected by climate change, yet this has received less scientific attention. In this study, we examined spring LOV in response to climate change in China during the period 1963–2008 using in situ records of 15 species at 25 phenological observation sites across several climate zones and explored spatiotemporal changes of LOV and the underlying mechanisms. We observed a significant decrease of LOV toward higher latitudes (−0.2 ± 0.1 days⋅°N–1;P < 0.001) across all species. Temporally, we found that the LOV was significantly increased from the period 1963–1986 (6.9 ± 2.8 days) to the period 1987–2008 (7.9 ± 3.7 days, P < 0.05). Furthermore, the LOV changes between 1987–2008 and 1963–1986 were significantly smaller at high latitudes (average decrease of 1.0 day) than at low latitudes (average increase of 1.5 days). The spatial pattern of LOV is likely due to both increased heat requirements and greater temperature sensitivity at low latitudes compared with high latitudes. The temporal pattern of LOV is likely related to increased heat requirements for leaf-out during 1987–2008 when the average air temperature was higher. Our analysis indicated that the phenology response to climate change is reflected not only in the temporal trends for long time series but also in the variation of phenological dates. Results from this study improve our understanding of phenological responses to climate change and could be applied in the assessment of regional phenology changes to evaluate better the impacts of climate change on ecosystem structure and function.

Download Full-text

Temporal trends of climatic variables and water footprint of rice and wheat production in Punjab, India from 1986 to 2017

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2020.093 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Durba Kashyap ◽

Tripti Agarwal

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Rainwater Harvesting ◽

Water Footprint ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Sunshine Duration ◽

Temporal Trends ◽

Kendall Test ◽

Climatic Variables ◽

Climate Variables

Abstract The agriculture sector is vulnerable to climate change and related changes in the hydrological cycle. In order to understand the changes in climatic variables and their implications for agricultural water consumption, the present study aims to analyse the temporal variability of climatic factors and water footprint (WF) of rice and wheat during the period 1986–2017 in Ludhiana, Punjab. Further, it aims to identify the dominant climatic factors that cause variation in reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and WF of rice and wheat. WF was estimated using CROPWAT, and Path analysis was used to determine the dominant climate variables. Temporal trends of climate variables were analysed using the Mann–Kendall test. The total WF of both rice and wheat shows a significant declining trend over the past 32 years. Sunshine duration and wind speed were the dominant factors influencing the variability of total WF of rice and wheat, respectively, whereas rainfall strongly influenced the green and blue WF of rice and wheat. Rainfall had a high variability, and consequently, irrigation water requirement was highly fluctuating. This indicates the significant impact of present and projected erratic pattern of precipitation on agriculture due to climate change and reiterates the importance of adaptive measures like rainwater harvesting and capacity building.

Download Full-text

High precise dating on the variation of the Asian summer monsoon since 37 ka BP

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-88597-7 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Ting-Yong Li ◽

Yao Wu ◽

Chuan-Chou Shen ◽

Jun-Yun Li ◽

Hong-Wei Chiang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Summer Monsoon ◽

Asian Summer Monsoon ◽

Global Climate ◽

Dominant Role ◽

High Latitudes ◽

Low Latitudes ◽

Comprehensive Comparison ◽

Asian Summer

AbstractComprehensive comparison of paleoclimate change based on records constrained by precise chronology and high-resolution is essential to explore the correlation and interaction within earth climate systems. Here, we propose a new stalagmite-based multidecadal resolved Asian summer monsoon (ASM) record spanning the past thirty-seven thousand years (ka BP, before ad 1950) from Furong Cave, southwestern China. This record is consistent with the published Chinese stalagmite sequences and shows that the dominant controls of the ASM dynamics include not only insolation and solar activity but also suborbital-scale hydroclimate events in the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere, such as the Heinrich events, Bølling-Allerød (BA), and Younger Dryas (YD). Benefit from the unprecedented accurate chronology, the timings of these events are precisely dated, with uncertainties of, at most, 40 years (2σ). The onset of the weak ASM during the YD began at 12.92 ka BP and lasted for 430 years. The occurrence of the 200-yr Older Dryas during the BA period was dated from 13.87 to 14.06 ka BP. The durations of the three Heinrich (H) events, H1, H2, and H3, are 14.33–18.29, 23.77–24.48, and 28.98–30.46 ka BP, respectively. Furong record shows surprisingly variable onset transitions of 980, 210, and 40 years for the corresponding weak ASM events. These discrepancies suggest different influences of the H events on ASM dynamics. During the periods of H 1–3, the obvious difference between our Furong record and NGRIP δ18O record indicated the decoupling correlation between the mid-low latitudes and high latitudes. On the other hand, synchronous climate change in high and low latitudes suggests another possibility which different to the dominant role of Northern high latitudes in triggering global climate change. Our high quality records also indicate a plausible different correlation between the high and mid-low latitudes under glacial and inter-glacial background, especially for the ASM regimes.

Download Full-text

Contrasting Evolution Patterns of Endorheic and Exorheic Lakes on the Central Tibetan Plateau and Climate Cause Analysis during 1988–2017

Water ◽

10.3390/w13141962 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (14) ◽

pp. 1962

Author(s):

Zhilong Zhao ◽

Yue Zhang ◽

Zengzeng Hu ◽

Xuanhua Nie

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Tibetan Plateau ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Global Climate ◽

Rapid Expansion ◽

Annual Precipitation ◽

The Tibetan Plateau ◽

Lake Area ◽

Climate Change Research ◽

Mean Temperature

The alpine lakes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are indicators of climate change. The assessment of lake dynamics on the TP is an important component of global climate change research. With a focus on lakes in the 33° N zone of the central TP, this study investigates the temporal evolution patterns of the lake areas of different types of lakes, i.e., non-glacier-fed endorheic lakes and non-glacier-fed exorheic lakes, during 1988–2017, and examines their relationship with changes in climatic factors. From 1988 to 2017, two endorheic lakes (Lake Yagenco and Lake Zhamcomaqiong) in the study area expanded significantly, i.e., by more than 50%. Over the same period, two exorheic lakes within the study area also exhibited spatio-temporal variability: Lake Gaeencuonama increased by 5.48%, and the change in Lake Zhamuco was not significant. The 2000s was a period of rapid expansion of both the closed lakes (endorheic lakes) and open lakes (exorheic lakes) in the study area. However, the endorheic lakes maintained the increase in lake area after the period of rapid expansion, while the exorheic lakes decreased after significant expansion. During 1988–2017, the annual mean temperature significantly increased at a rate of 0.04 °C/a, while the annual precipitation slightly increased at a rate of 2.23 mm/a. Furthermore, the annual precipitation significantly increased at a rate of 14.28 mm/a during 1995–2008. The results of this study demonstrate that the change in precipitation was responsible for the observed changes in the lake areas of the two exorheic lakes within the study area, while the changes in the lake areas of the two endorheic lakes were more sensitive to the annual mean temperature between 1988 and 2017. Given the importance of lakes to the TP, these are not trivial issues, and we now need accelerated research based on long-term and continuous remote sensing data.

Download Full-text

Methodology for classifying the ecosystem integrity of forests in Germany using quantified indicators

Environmental Sciences Europe ◽

10.1186/s12302-021-00478-y ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 33 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Martin Jenssen ◽

Stefan Nickel ◽

Winfried Schröder

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

National Park ◽

Temporal Trends ◽

Water Flux ◽

Ecosystem Functions ◽

Specific Reference ◽

Atmospheric Nitrogen ◽

Complete Coverage ◽

Ecosystem Integrity ◽

Quantitative Indicators

Abstract Background Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and climate change can have impacts on ecological structures and functions, and thus on the integrity of ecosystems and their services. Operationalization of ecosystem integrity is still an important desideratum. Results A methodology for classifying the ecosystem integrity of forests in Germany under the influence of climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition is presented. The methodology was based on 14 indicators for six ecosystem functions: habitat function, net primary function, carbon sequestration, nutrient and water flux, resilience. It allows assessments of ecosystem integrity changes by comparing current or prospective ecosystem states with ecosystem-type-specific reference states as described by quantitative indicators for 61 forest ecosystem types based on data before 1990. Conclusion The method developed enables site-specific classifications of ecosystem integrity as well as classifications with complete coverage and determinations of temporal trends as shown using examples from the Thuringian Forest and the “Kellerwald-Edersee” National Park (Germany).

Download Full-text

Assessing the Sensitivity of Main Crop Yields to Climate Change Impacts in China

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos12020172 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (2) ◽

pp. 172

Author(s):

Yuan Xu ◽

Jieming Chou ◽

Fan Yang ◽

Mingyang Sun ◽

Weixing Zhao ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Crop Yield ◽

Food Production ◽

Crop Yields ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Climatic Data ◽

The South ◽

The North ◽

Output Elasticity ◽

The Impact

Quantitatively assessing the spatial divergence of the sensitivity of crop yield to climate change is of great significance for reducing the climate change risk to food production. We use socio-economic and climatic data from 1981 to 2015 to examine how climate variability led to variation in yield, as simulated by an economy–climate model (C-D-C). The sensitivity of crop yield to the impact of climate change refers to the change in yield caused by changing climatic factors under the condition of constant non-climatic factors. An ‘output elasticity of comprehensive climate factor (CCF)’ approach determines the sensitivity, using the yields per hectare for grain, rice, wheat and maize in China’s main grain-producing areas as a case study. The results show that the CCF has a negative trend at a rate of −0.84/(10a) in the North region, while a positive trend of 0.79/(10a) is observed for the South region. Climate change promotes the ensemble increase in yields, and the contribution of agricultural labor force and total mechanical power to yields are greater, indicating that the yield in major grain-producing areas mainly depends on labor resources and the level of mechanization. However, the sensitivities to climate change of different crop yields to climate change present obvious regional differences: the sensitivity to climate change of the yield per hectare for maize in the North region was stronger than that in the South region. Therefore, the increase in the yield per hectare for maize in the North region due to the positive impacts of climate change was greater than that in the South region. In contrast, the sensitivity to climate change of the yield per hectare for rice in the South region was stronger than that in the North region. Furthermore, the sensitivity to climate change of maize per hectare yield was stronger than that of rice and wheat in the North region, and that of rice was the highest of the three crop yields in the South region. Finally, the economy–climate sensitivity zones of different crops were determined by the output elasticity of the CCF to help adapt to climate change and prevent food production risks.

Download Full-text

Regions of intensification of extreme snowfall under future warming

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-95979-4 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Lennart Quante ◽

Sven N. Willner ◽

Robin Middelanis ◽

Anders Levermann

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

Observational Data ◽

Climate Models ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Average Intensity ◽

High Latitudes ◽

Future Warming

AbstractDue to climate change the frequency and character of precipitation are changing as the hydrological cycle intensifies. With regards to snowfall, global warming has two opposing influences; increasing humidity enables intense snowfall, whereas higher temperatures decrease the likelihood of snowfall. Here we show an intensification of extreme snowfall across large areas of the Northern Hemisphere under future warming. This is robust across an ensemble of global climate models when they are bias-corrected with observational data. While mean daily snowfall decreases, both the 99th and the 99.9th percentiles of daily snowfall increase in many regions in the next decades, especially for Northern America and Asia. Additionally, the average intensity of snowfall events exceeding these percentiles as experienced historically increases in many regions. This is likely to pose a challenge to municipalities in mid to high latitudes. Overall, extreme snowfall events are likely to become an increasingly important impact of climate change in the next decades, even if they will become rarer, but not necessarily less intense, in the second half of the century.

Download Full-text

A meta-analysis of the literature on climate change and migration

Journal of Demographic Economics ◽

10.1017/dem.2019.22 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-52

Author(s):

Michel Beine ◽

Lionel Jeusette

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Human Mobility ◽

Meta Analysis ◽

Empirical Studies ◽

Displacement Effect ◽

Methodological Choices ◽

Econometric Methods ◽

And Migration

Abstract Recent surveys of the literature on climate change and migration emphasize the important diversity of outcomes and approaches of the empirical studies. In this paper, we conduct a meta-analysis in order to investigate the role of the methodological choices of these empirical studies in finding some particular results concerning the role of climatic factors as drivers of human mobility. We code 51 papers representative of the literature in terms of methodological approaches. This results in the coding of more than 85 variables capturing the methodology of the main dimensions of the analysis at the regression level. These dimensions include authors' reputation, type of mobility, measures of mobility, type of data, context of the study, econometric methods, and last but not least measures of the climatic factors. We look at the influence of these characteristics on the probability of finding any effect of climate change, a displacement effect, an increase in immobility, and evidence in favor of a direct vs. an indirect effect. Our results highlight the role of some important methodological choices, such as the frequency of the data on mobility, the level of development, the measures of human mobility and of the climatic factors as well as the econometric methodology.

Download Full-text

Strong controls of daily minimum temperature on the autumn photosynthetic phenology of subtropical vegetation in China

Forest Ecosystems ◽

10.1186/s40663-021-00309-9 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Peixin Ren ◽

Zelin Liu ◽

Xiaolu Zhou ◽

Changhui Peng ◽

Jingfeng Xiao ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Minimum Temperature ◽

Vegetation Index ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Time Lag ◽

Evergreen Forest ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Daily Minimum Temperature ◽

Study Region ◽

Cumulative Precipitation

Abstract Background Vegetation phenology research has largely focused on temperate deciduous forests, thus limiting our understanding of the response of evergreen vegetation to climate change in tropical and subtropical regions. Results Using satellite solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) and MODIS enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data, we applied two methods to evaluate temporal and spatial patterns of the end of the growing season (EGS) in subtropical vegetation in China, and analyze the dependence of EGS on preseason maximum and minimum temperatures as well as cumulative precipitation. Our results indicated that the averaged EGS derived from the SIF and EVI based on the two methods (dynamic threshold method and derivative method) was later than that derived from gross primary productivity (GPP) based on the eddy covariance technique, and the time-lag for EGSsif and EGSevi was approximately 2 weeks and 4 weeks, respectively. We found that EGS was positively correlated with preseason minimum temperature and cumulative precipitation (accounting for more than 73% and 62% of the study areas, respectively), but negatively correlated with preseason maximum temperature (accounting for more than 59% of the study areas). In addition, EGS was more sensitive to the changes in the preseason minimum temperature than to other climatic factors, and an increase in the preseason minimum temperature significantly delayed the EGS in evergreen forests, shrub and grassland. Conclusions Our results indicated that the SIF outperformed traditional vegetation indices in capturing the autumn photosynthetic phenology of evergreen forest in the subtropical region of China. We found that minimum temperature plays a significant role in determining autumn photosynthetic phenology in the study region. These findings contribute to improving our understanding of the response of the EGS to climate change in subtropical vegetation of China, and provide a new perspective for accurately evaluating the role played by evergreen vegetation in the regional carbon budget.

Download Full-text

The paleomagnetism of Huronian red beds and Nipissing diabase; Post-Huronian Igneous Events and apparent polar path for the interval −2300 to −1500 Ma for Laurentia

Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences ◽

10.1139/e76-079 ◽

1976 ◽

Vol 13 (6) ◽

pp. 749-773 ◽

Cited By ~ 50

Author(s):

J. L. Roy ◽

P. L. Lapointe

Keyword(s):

High Stability ◽

Vertical Axis ◽

Time Range ◽

High Latitudes ◽

Red Beds ◽

Two Stage ◽

Low Latitudes ◽

The Many ◽

Age Determinations ◽

Good Agreement

Thermal, chemical, and alternating field (and two-stage) cleaning treatments of Huronian sediments and Nipissing diabase (which intrudes the sediments) from the Cobalt area yield five directions of magnetizations (A–E) of high stability; A, B, C, and E are found in the sediments, and C, D, and E in the diabase. It is suggested that magnetization B (337°, +52°; α95 = 8°; pole 158 °E, 67 °N) was acquired shortly after deposition of the Firstbrook beds [Formula: see text]; magnetization C (259°, +82°; α95 = 5°; pole 258 °E, 42 °N), found in both the diabase and sediments in contact with the diabase, was acquired during cooling following emplacement of the diabase [Formula: see text]; and magnetizations D and E, yielding poles at 264 °E, 15 °S and 000°, 09 °N respectively, were produced during the Hudsonian orogeny (−1850 to −1700 Ma). This interpretation resolves the previous inconsistencies between poles and age determinations. Good agreement between results from the Nipissing diabase and other igneous bodies indicate that widespread igneous events occurred in the time range approximately −2200 to −2100 Ma, immediately following deposition of Huronian sediments. This is referred to as 'Post-Huronian Igneous Events'. A proposed apparent polar path relative to Laurentia shows two distinct motions; for the 2300–1850 Ma interval, a latitudinal change (roughly along longitude 250° E) from high [Formula: see text] to low [Formula: see text] latitudes and, for the 1850–1500 Ma interval, a displacement along the present-day equator with first an eastward motion to about 000° longitude followed by a westward motion to 240° E longitude; the apex of the eastward excursion is given a date of [Formula: see text]. It is possible that this reflects a rotation of Laurentia about a vertical axis at the time of and following the Hudsonian orogeny. Subsequent uplift and cooling would explain the many overprinted stable magnetizations yielding poles distributed along the equator (track 4). Latitude maps indicate that Laurentia was in high latitudes from 2200–2000 Ma and in intermediate to low latitudes from 1900–1500 Ma.

Download Full-text

The Influence of Ocean Thermocline Temperatures on the Earth’s Surface Climate

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli3382.1 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 18 (13) ◽

pp. 2222-2246 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Robert J. Oglesby ◽

Monica Y. Stephens ◽

Barry Saltzman

Keyword(s):

Carbon Dioxide ◽

Mixed Layer ◽

General Circulation ◽

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽

Deep Ocean ◽

High Latitudes ◽

Surface Climate ◽

Low Latitudes ◽

Atmospheric Carbon ◽

The Impact

Abstract A coupled mixed layer–atmospheric general circulation model has been used to evaluate the impact of ocean thermocline temperatures (and by proxy those of the deep ocean) on the surface climate of the earth. Particular attention has been devoted to temperature regimes both warmer and cooler than at present. The mixed layer ocean model (MLOM) simulates vertical dynamics and thermodynamics in the upper ocean, including wind mixing and buoyancy effects, and has been coupled to the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM3). Simulations were made with globally uniform thermocline warmings of +2°, +5°, and +10°C, as well as a globally uniform cooling of −5°C. A simulation was made with latitudinally varying changes in thermocline temperature such that the warming at mid- and high latitudes is much larger than at low latitudes. In all simulations, the response of surface temperature over both land and ocean was larger than that expected just as a result of the imposed thermocline temperature change, largely because of water vapor feedbacks. In this respect, the simulations were similar to those in which only changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide were imposed. In fact, when carbon dioxide was explicitly changed along with thermocline temperatures, the results were not much different than if only the thermocline temperatures were altered. Land versus ocean differences are explained largely by latent heat flux differences: the ocean is an infinite evaporative source, while land can be quite dry. The latitudinally varying case has a much larger response at mid- to high latitudes than at low latitudes; the high latitudes actually appear to effectively warm the low latitudes. Simulations exploring scenarios of glacial inception suggest that the deep ocean alone is not likely to be a key trigger but must operate in conjunction with other forcings, such as reduced carbon dioxide. Moist upland regions at mid- and high latitudes, and land regions adjacent to perennial sea ice, are the preferred locations for glacial inception in these runs. Finally, the model combination equilibrates very rapidly, meaning that a large number of simulations can be made for a fairly modest computational cost. A drawback to this is greatly reduced sensitivity to parameters such as atmospheric carbon dioxide, which requires a full response of the ocean. Thus, this approach can be considered intermediate between fixing, or prescribing, sea surface temperatures and a fully coupled modeling approach.

Download Full-text