The drivers of systemic risk in financial networks: a data-driven machine learning analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 153 ◽  
pp. 111588
Author(s):  
Michel Alexandre ◽  
Thiago Christiano Silva ◽  
Colm Connaughton ◽  
Francisco A. Rodrigues
Author(s):  
Malik Magdon-Ismail

AbstractWe present a robust data-driven machine learning analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic from its early infection dynamics, specifically infection counts over time. The goal is to extract actionable public health insights. These insights include the infectious force, the rate of a mild infection becoming serious, estimates for asymtomatic infections and predictions of new infections over time. We focus on USA data starting from the first confirmed infection on January 20 2020. Our methods reveal significant asymptomatic (hidden) infection, a lag of about 10 days, and we quantitatively confirm that the infectious force is strong with about a 0.14% transition from mild to serious infection. Our methods are efficient, robust and general, being agnostic to the specific virus and applicable to different populations or cohorts.


2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 192-201
Author(s):  
G. Ntaios ◽  
S. F. Weng ◽  
K. Perlepe ◽  
R. Akyea ◽  
L. Condon ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 101016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jim Abraham ◽  
Amy B. Heimberger ◽  
John Marshall ◽  
Elisabeth Heath ◽  
Joseph Drabick ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Ekaterina Kochmar ◽  
Dung Do Vu ◽  
Robert Belfer ◽  
Varun Gupta ◽  
Iulian Vlad Serban ◽  
...  

AbstractIntelligent tutoring systems (ITS) have been shown to be highly effective at promoting learning as compared to other computer-based instructional approaches. However, many ITS rely heavily on expert design and hand-crafted rules. This makes them difficult to build and transfer across domains and limits their potential efficacy. In this paper, we investigate how feedback in a large-scale ITS can be automatically generated in a data-driven way, and more specifically how personalization of feedback can lead to improvements in student performance outcomes. First, in this paper we propose a machine learning approach to generate personalized feedback in an automated way, which takes individual needs of students into account, while alleviating the need of expert intervention and design of hand-crafted rules. We leverage state-of-the-art machine learning and natural language processing techniques to provide students with personalized feedback using hints and Wikipedia-based explanations. Second, we demonstrate that personalized feedback leads to improved success rates at solving exercises in practice: our personalized feedback model is used in , a large-scale dialogue-based ITS with around 20,000 students launched in 2019. We present the results of experiments with students and show that the automated, data-driven, personalized feedback leads to a significant overall improvement of 22.95% in student performance outcomes and substantial improvements in the subjective evaluation of the feedback.


Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1208
Author(s):  
Massimiliano Bordoni ◽  
Fabrizio Inzaghi ◽  
Valerio Vivaldi ◽  
Roberto Valentino ◽  
Marco Bittelli ◽  
...  

Soil water potential is a key factor to study water dynamics in soil and for estimating the occurrence of natural hazards, as landslides. This parameter can be measured in field or estimated through physically-based models, limited by the availability of effective input soil properties and preliminary calibrations. Data-driven models, based on machine learning techniques, could overcome these gaps. The aim of this paper is then to develop an innovative machine learning methodology to assess soil water potential trends and to implement them in models to predict shallow landslides. Monitoring data since 2012 from test-sites slopes in Oltrepò Pavese (northern Italy) were used to build the models. Within the tested techniques, Random Forest models allowed an outstanding reconstruction of measured soil water potential temporal trends. Each model is sensitive to meteorological and hydrological characteristics according to soil depths and features. Reliability of the proposed models was confirmed by correct estimation of days when shallow landslides were triggered in the study areas in December 2020, after implementing the modeled trends on a slope stability model, and by the correct choice of physically-based rainfall thresholds. These results confirm the potential application of the developed methodology to estimate hydrological scenarios that could be used for decision-making purposes.


Author(s):  
Dhiraj J. Pangal ◽  
Guillaume Kugener ◽  
Shane Shahrestani ◽  
Frank Attenello ◽  
Gabriel Zada ◽  
...  

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