Detecting changes to the functioning of a lake ecosystem following a regime shift based on static food-web models

2016 ◽  
Vol 320 ◽  
pp. 145-157 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Ofir ◽  
G. Gal ◽  
M. Goren ◽  
J. Shapiro ◽  
E. Spanier
Keyword(s):  
Food Web ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 33 (11) ◽  
pp. 3280-3290
Author(s):  
李玉照 LI Yuzhao ◽  
刘永 LIU Yong ◽  
赵磊 ZHAO Lei ◽  
邹锐 ZOU Rui ◽  
王翠榆 WANG Cuiyu ◽  
...  

2016 ◽  
Vol 283 (1825) ◽  
pp. 20152569 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johanna Yletyinen ◽  
Örjan Bodin ◽  
Benjamin Weigel ◽  
Marie C. Nordström ◽  
Erik Bonsdorff ◽  
...  

Species composition and habitats are changing at unprecedented rates in the world's oceans, potentially causing entire food webs to shift to structurally and functionally different regimes. Despite the severity of these regime shifts, elucidating the precise nature of their underlying processes has remained difficult. We address this challenge with a new analytic approach to detect and assess the relative strength of different driving processes in food webs. Our study draws on complexity theory, and integrates the network-centric exponential random graph modelling (ERGM) framework developed within the social sciences with community ecology. In contrast to previous research, this approach makes clear assumptions of direction of causality and accommodates a dynamic perspective on the emergence of food webs. We apply our approach to analysing food webs of the Baltic Sea before and after a previously reported regime shift. Our results show that the dominant food web processes have remained largely the same, although we detect changes in their magnitudes. The results indicate that the reported regime shift may not be a system-wide shift, but instead involve a limited number of species. Our study emphasizes the importance of community-wide analysis on marine regime shifts and introduces a novel approach to examine food webs.


2021 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 992-1003
Author(s):  
Dong Yifan ◽  
◽  
Zheng Wenxiu ◽  
Zhang Chenxue ◽  
Xu Min ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Jan J. Kuiper ◽  
Bob W. Kooi ◽  
Garry D. Peterson ◽  
Wolf M. Mooij

Ecologists are challenged by the need to bridge and synthesize different approaches and theories to obtain a coherent understanding of ecosystems in a changing world. Both food web theory and regime shift theory shine light on mechanisms that confer stability to ecosystems, but from a different angle. Empirical food web models are developed to analyze how equilibria in real multi-trophic ecosystems are shaped by species interactions, and often include linear functional response terms for simple estimation of interaction strengths from observations. Models of regime shifts focus on qualitative changes of equilibrium points in a slowly changing environment, and typically include non-linear functional response terms. Currently, it is unclear how the stability of an empirical food web model, expressed as the rate of system recovery after a small perturbation, relates to the vulnerability of the ecosystem to collapse. Here, we conduct structural sensitive analyses of classical consumer-resource models in equilibrium along an environmental gradient. Specifically, we change non-proportional interaction terms into linear ones, while maintaining the equilibrium biomass densities and flux of matter, to analyze how alternative model formulations shape the stability properties of the equilibria. The results reveal no consistent relationship between the stability of the original models and the linearized versions, even though they describe the same biomass values and material flows. We use these findings to discuss whether stability analysis of observed equilibria by empirical food web models can provide insight into regime shift dynamics, and highlight the challenge of bridging alternative modelling approaches in ecology and beyond.


Oikos ◽  
1996 ◽  
Vol 75 (1) ◽  
pp. 20 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. E. Havens ◽  
L. A. Bull ◽  
G. L. Warren ◽  
T. L. Crisman ◽  
E. J. Phlips ◽  
...  

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (11) ◽  
pp. 555-564 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhongyi Zhang ◽  
Jing Tian ◽  
Yansheng Cao ◽  
Nengjian Zheng ◽  
Jingjing Zhao ◽  
...  

2016 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kota Ikeda ◽  
Takeshi Miki

Many ecological systems are influenced by positive feedbacks between organisms and abiotic environments, which generates multiple stable equilibria of a mathematical model with a hysteresis structure. In addition, discontinuous shifts of system at equilibrium is predicted, which is often called regime shift in ecosystem sciences. This hysteresis structure is unfavorable from environmental management point of view, because the reconstruction of original equilibrium state requests much lower levels of external forcing. Mathematical models proposed in previous works are simple and mathematically tractable ([7],[2]).However, it is difficult to extrapolate from such simple models the occurrence likelihood of regime shift in natural environments since temporally dynamic features in ecology and physico-chemical environments, and spatial dimension are less explored in those models. In this study, we construct a realistic but mathematically tractable model of interaction between phytoplankton and phosphorus, which incorporates (1) 1-dimensional vertical structure of lake ecosystem and (2) seasonal periodic cycle of water mixing. We aim to understand the impact of changes in seasonality in various types of lakes on the occurrence of multiple attractors (periodic solution) and hysteresis structure.


2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (8) ◽  
pp. 180465
Author(s):  
Silva Uusi-Heikkilä ◽  
Tommi Perälä ◽  
Anna Kuparinen

Fish stocking is used worldwide in conservation and management, but its effects on food-web dynamics and ecosystem stability are poorly known. To better understand these effects and predict the outcomes of stocking, we used an empirically validated network model of a well-studied lake ecosystem. We simulate two stocking scenarios with two native fish species valuable for fishing. In the first scenario, we stock planktivorous fish (whitefish) larvae in the ecosystem. This leads to a 1% increase in adult whitefish biomasses and decreases the biomasses of the top predator (perch). In the second scenario, we also stock perch larvae in the ecosystem. This decreases the planktivorous whitefish and the oldest top predator age class biomasses, and destabilizes the ecosystem. Our results demonstrate that the effects of stocking depend on the species' position in the food web and thus cannot be assessed without considering interacting species. We further show that stocking can lead to undesired outcomes from both management and conservation perspectives. The gains of stocking can remain minor and have adverse effects on the entire ecosystem.


2015 ◽  
Vol 72 (7) ◽  
pp. 1004-1014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark S. Ridgway ◽  
Trevor A. Middel

The Lake Huron food web has been undergoing change since the invasion of driessenid mussels (Dreissena spp.) (late 1990s), especially in 2003 featuring the lake-wide loss of alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) among other elements that year. Collectively the changes in 2003 satisfy a number of criteria for a regime shift. Based on multiflight surveys (2001–2005), we modeled coastal zone occupancy of foraging double-crested cormorants (Phalacrocorax auritus) in the North Channel and Georgian Bay of Lake Huron during the regime shift period. At the start of the regime shift (2003), there were a number of plausible occupancy models based on a set of spatial covariates, the only year in the study when this occurred. Annual shifts in the magnitude and sign of coefficients indicated movement of cormorants between the two coastal regions, especially during and immediately after the regime shift period. Declines in cormorant occupancy of coastal habitat were not confined to 2003 but extended through 2004, with declines in occupancy in the North Channel (2003) preceding that in Georgian Bay (2004). Declines in occupancy in offshore areas in both coastal regions preceded declines in nearshore areas, possibly reflecting the loss of alewife at the time. The spatial response of predators or prey in regime shifts could serve as early indicators of tipping points in ecosystems.


Hydrobiologia ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 571 (1) ◽  
pp. 395-400 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hideyuki Doi ◽  
Elena I. Zuykova ◽  
Eisuke Kikuchi ◽  
Shuichi Shikano ◽  
Keiichi Kanou ◽  
...  

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