A Bayesian mixing model framework for quantifying temporal and spatial variation in source of sediment to lakes across hydrological gradients of floodplains

<p>Episodic flood events are critical for recharging water balance of floodplain lakes and maintaining their ecological integrity, yet are subject to alteration in frequency and magnitude by natural and anthropogenic processes that operate over a range of spatial and temporal scales. To evaluate roles of potential stressors, paleolimnological reconstructions are used to obtain insights into hydrological variability of dynamic floodplain lakes. However, spatial and temporal integration is often underdeveloped because different paleolimnological measurements must be applied across lakes due to the wide range of energy conditions that impart marked differences in sediment composition. Here, we use a linear discriminant analysis to identify 10 significant elemental concentrations in surveyed sediment from multiple sampling campaigns that distinguish the geochemical fingerprints of three end-member sources in lakes at the Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD; Canada): the Athabasca River, the Peace River and local catchment runoff. Over 90% of the sediment samples were correctly classified into the original groups after cross-validation due to the distinctiveness of the three end members, which permits development of a robust Bayesian mixing model to discern the relative contributions of sediment from the three sources. We evaluate the mixing model at two adjacent lakes in the Athabasca sector of the PAD and demonstrate its effectiveness to discriminate three known hydrological phases during the past 300 years. Notably, the model infers ~60% of the sediment originated from the Peace River during the largest ice-jam flood event on record (1974), which was unrecognized by other methods. We then applied our model to sediment records from 18 lakes spanning the hydrological gradients across the 6000 km<sup>2</sup> PAD to further probe the hydrological evolution during the past ~150 years. Results demonstrate decline in frequency of flooding from both the Athabasca and Peace rivers and lake-level drawdown since the early 20<sup>th</sup> century and align remarkably well with prior interpretation of conventional paleohydrological records of individual lakes. We advocate our approach provides a universal method that can be applied across the full range of sediment composition to quantify change in source, frequency and magnitude of river floodwaters to lakes and is transferable to other dynamic floodplain landscapes where variation of sediment composition challenges efficacy of other approaches.</p>

Predation impacts of invasive raccoons on rare native species

In Japan, there are concerns that invasive alien raccoons prey on rare native species during their spawning season from late winter to early summer. We investigated raccoon predation impact by examining the predation presence using DNA metabarcoding and extent of predation on rare native species using stable isotope analysis. We captured raccoons in Hokkaido, Japan from April to August in 2018 and 2019. We analysed raccoon faeces and gastric contents by DNA metabarcoding to detect the rare native Hokkaido salamander and Japanese crayfish. Hokkaido salamanders were detected from gastric contents, but Japanese crayfish were not detected in any samples. Stable isotope analysis of raccoon muscle samples and the Bayesian mixing model were used to estimate each food resource’s contribution to the raccoon diet. Animal food resources accounted for 70% of total consumed food. The foraging ratios of amphibians and crustaceans were about 9% and 5%, respectively. Raccoons have been found to use amphibians at a higher rate than previously reported, including a rare endangered species, the Hokkaido salamander. Hokkaido salamander and Japanese crayfish spawn in the spring, and increased predation pressure by raccoons may directly impact populations of these rare native species.

CHRONOLOGY OF THE BURIAL ACTIVITY OF THE LAST HUNTER-GATHERERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN IBERIAN PENINSULA, PORTUGAL

ABSTRACT For most of human history, funerary burial has been unusual. Archaeology shows a shift in funerary practices in postglacial hunter-gatherers, in parts of Europe during the Late Mesolithic. This is documented by the burial grounds in the Tagus and Sado valleys in the southwestern Iberian Peninsula, Portugal, where ca. 376 burials were excavated. This study presents a chronology for the burial activity in these sites and contextualizes the start and end activity phases within regional environmental changes and cultural developments. The dataset consists of 76 14C dates on human bone (19 new, 57 published) including new dates from contexts in Portugal outside these valleys. Bayesian chronological models were defined in OxCal, and protein carbon contributions of marine foods were estimated by the Bayesian mixing model FRUITS. The results indicate a broader timeframe for the Late Mesolithic in Portugal, than previously suggested, starting during a period of significant environmental changes, ca. 8500–8300 cal BP, and ending ca. 7000 cal BP. The burial activity decreased during the establishment of Neolithic farmers in southwestern Iberia from ca. 7450 cal BP, however, these burial grounds continued to be used by Mesolithic hunter-gatherers, showing that diverse social structures and worldviews coexisted for several generations.