GMM clustering for heating load patterns in-depth identification and prediction model accuracy improvement of district heating system

2019 ◽  
Vol 190 ◽  
pp. 49-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yakai Lu ◽  
Zhe Tian ◽  
Peng Peng ◽  
Jide Niu ◽  
Wancheng Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
District Heating ◽  
Heating System ◽  
Model Accuracy ◽  
Accuracy Improvement ◽  
District Heating System ◽  
Heating Load

Predicting Hourly Heating Load in a District Heating System Based on a Hybrid CNN-LSTM Model

2021 ◽  
pp. 110998
Author(s):  
Jiancai Song ◽  
Liyi Zhang ◽  
Guixiang Xue ◽  
YunPeng Ma ◽  
Shan Gao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
District Heating ◽  
Heating System ◽  
District Heating System ◽  
Heating Load

scholarly journals Prediction of heating load fluctuation based on fuzzy information granulation and support vector machine

2020 ◽  
pp. 307-307
Author(s):  
Tao Wang ◽  
Tingyu Ma ◽  
Dongsong Yan ◽  
Jing Song ◽  
Jianshuo Hu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
District Heating ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Fuzzy Information ◽  
District Heating System ◽  
Information Granulation ◽  
Heating Load ◽  
Fuzzy Information Granulation

District heating systems are an important part of the future smart energy system and are seen as a tool to achieve energy efficiency goals in the EU. In order to achieve the real sense of heating on demand, based on historical heating load data, first of all, the heating load time series data was dealing with fuzzy information granulation, and then the cross-validation was used to explore the advantages of the data potential. Then the support vector machine regression prediction model was used for the prediction of the granulation data, finally, the heating load of a district heating system is simulated and verified. The simulation results show that the prediction model can effectively predict the trend of heating load, and provide a theoretical basis for the prediction of district heating load.

scholarly journals Technology Pathways and Economic Analysis for Transforming High Temperature to Low Temperature District Heating Systems

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 3218
Author(s):  
Pedro Durán ◽  
Herena Torio ◽  
Patrik Schönfeldt ◽  
Peter Klement ◽  
Benedikt Hanke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
High Temperature ◽  
Low Temperature ◽  
Economic Analysis ◽  
District Heating ◽  
Heating System ◽  
District Heating System ◽  
Heating Systems ◽  
District Heating Systems

There are 1454 district heating systems in Germany. Most of them are fossil based and with high temperature levels, which is neither efficient nor sustainable and needs to be changed for reaching the 2050 climate goals. In this paper, we present a case study for transforming a high to low temperature district heating system which is more suitable for renewable energy supply. With the Carnot Toolbox, a dynamic model of a potential district heating system is simulated and then transformed to a low temperature supply. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to see the system performance in case space constrains restrict the transformation. Finally, an economic comparison is performed. Results show that it is technically possible to perform the transformation until a very low temperature system. The use of decentralized renewable sources, decentralized heat storage tanks and the placement of a heat pump on each building are the key points to achieve the transformation. Regarding the sensitivity analysis, the transformation is worth doing until the seasonal storage and solar collector field sizes are reduced to 60% and 80% of their values in the reference case, respectively. The economic analysis shows, however, that it is hard for highly efficient low temperature renewable based heat networks to compete with district heating systems based on a centralized fossile CHP solution. Thus, though the presented transformation is technically possible, there is a strong need to change existing economic schemes and policies for fostering a stronger promotion of renewable energy policies in the heat sector.

scholarly journals Upgrading a District Heating System by Means of the Integration of Modular Heat Pumps, Geothermal Waters, and PVs for Resilient and Sustainable Urban Energy

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 2347
Author(s):  
Elżbieta Hałaj ◽  
Jarosław Kotyza ◽  
Marek Hajto ◽  
Grzegorz Pełka ◽  
Wojciech Luboń ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
District Heating ◽  
Heating System ◽  
Upper Jurassic ◽  
Heat Pumps ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Energy Potential ◽  
Geothermal Waters ◽  
District Heating System ◽  
Heating And Cooling ◽  
The City

Krakow has an extensive district heating network, which is approximately 900 km long. It is the second largest city in terms of the number of inhabitants in Poland, resulting in a high demand for energy—for both heating and cooling. The district heating of the city is based on coal. The paper presents the conception of using the available renewable sources to integrate them into the city’s heating system, increasing the flexibility of the system and its decentralization. An innovative solution of the use of hybrid, modular heat pumps with power dependent on the needs of customers in a given location and combining them with geothermal waters and photovoltaics is presented. The potential of deep geothermal waters is based on two reservoirs built of carbonate rocks, namely Devonian and Upper Jurassic, which mainly consist of dolomite and limestone. The theoretical potential of water intake equal to the nominal heating capacity of a geothermal installation is estimated at 3.3 and 2.0 MW, respectively. Shallow geothermal energy potential varies within the city, reflecting the complex geological structure of the city. Apart from typical borehole heat exchangers (BHEs), the shallower water levels may represent a significant potential source for both heating and cooling by means of water heat pumps. For the heating network, it has been proposed to use modular heat pumps with hybrid sources, which will allow for the flexible development of the network in places previously unavailable or unprofitable. In the case of balancing production and demand, a photovoltaic installation can be an effective and sufficient source of electricity that will cover the annual electricity demand generated by the heat pump installation, when it is used for both heating and cooling. The alternating demand of facilities for heating and cooling energy, caused by changes in the seasons, suggests potential for using seasonal cold and heat storage.

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